Featured Insights Archive - Seite 10 von 25 - Berylls

he current circumstances in the automotive industry place special demands on the restructuring process, which must be understood by all stakeholders as an opportunity.

The automotive industry is in the grip of a change crisis and auto suppliers are among those most affected. The key trigger is the transition to electric drives, but that has been compounded by the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine – and the stress inflicted on suppliers is already visible in high-profile supplier insolvencies, such as Dr. Schneider and Borgers. The case for holistic supplier restructuring has never been stronger. The mechanism remains the same as before, but the measures taken should be adapted to become more holistic.

Suppliers are left behind

Structural change is a theme in the automotive industry and suppliers are among the biggest losers in this era of transition. Although production volumes have been falling, OEMs have been able to record profits amid the crisis by focusing on high-margin vehicles. Suppliers, however, have not been so lucky. In 2022, OEM margins were on average one-third higher than those of suppliers (in the second quarter of 2022 in particular, many suppliers recorded a margin decline).

The premium strategy of many domestic car manufacturers means that suppliers cannot expect volumes to recover, while the transition to electrified vehicles means that several structural components are unneeded. The map of the auto value chain is being redrawn as the focus shifts from hardware to software: only suppliers who adapt to this new reality will be in a position to withstand the pressure from new competitors entering the market. New competitors can be exceptionally potent: a supplier such as battery manufacturer CATL was still an unknown start-up 10 years ago, yet now is dominant in its segment.

It is not surprising that established suppliers want to secure a larger piece of a cake that is getting smaller. This competition for share suits OEMs, because it ensures lower purchase prices. After OEM risk-management departments were taken by surprise by the Covid-19 crisis, they have done their homework on the new supplier environment and appear to agree about which supplier bankruptcies to risk.

Suppliers with already weakened equity ratios face the challenge of competing for future platform business and of carrying the high investment costs of developing new products for such platforms. At the same time, dramatic increases in refinancing costs since the end of 2021 (see Figure 2) and stricter requirements for credit applications have made it more difficult for medium-sized family businesses in particular to maintain their independence and avoid a liquidation crisis.

Rethink necessary

As demonstrated by the insolvencies of German auto interiors specialist Dr. Schneider and auto soundproofing materials maker Borgers, the current crisis can affect even large established companies. The lesson is that it is critical for suppliers of any size to recognize and respond to problems early on. Many companies make the mistake of trying to keep their turnover constant despite falling profitability, and they operate plants at maximum capacity to maintain contribution margins or lease payments.

This approach assumes a stable business environment, but is currently inappropriate. Instead, companies should prepare themselves for the fact that the environment will continue to remain volatile. They are often better equipped for change when they recognize this and adjust and manage their capacities flexibly. A focus on profitable core business and swift measures to reduce costs may be necessary.

Yet this kind of adjustment is not easy, creating as it does an environment in which all decisions are based on emotion. So-called IDW S6 reports – the control instruments used for many restructurings, frequently demanded by banks – can also contribute to financial stress by demanding positive turnover performance at a time when that approach may not be conducive to sustainable restructuring.

Holistic perspectives

A sustainable restructuring process needs to be understood by all stakeholders as an opportunity to future-proof a company and focus on profitability. It is important to consider three fundamental aspects:

Leadership and strategy need to adapt to the new reality in the car industry and avoid short-term solutions. It is important to recognize an emerging company crisis early on and react to it appropriately.

Operational interventions are important to ensure that the company achieves an appropriate level and quality of output as a contribution to restructuring. A sophisticated suite of operating methods is essential so these measures can achieve maximum efficiency.

Finances need to be brought under control. Perseverance and tolerance on the part of all stakeholders is crucial because restructuring measures can shrink the business by as much as 50%.

The restructuring wheel
360° – approach

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Current developments and transformations in the auto industry are putting fundamental assumptions to the test for many if not most auto companies. It is vital in these circumstances that managers and shareholders understand that simple short-term solutions are not enough to achieve sustainable restructurings. Experience has shown that a comprehensive and holistic approach is the only approach that will optimize companies and rebuild their organizations at all levels in a sustainable way.

Authors

Philipp Stütz

Associate Partner

philipp.stuetz@berylls.com

Anton Knaus

Research

anton.knaus@berylls.com

Philipp M. Stütz

Philipp M. Stuetz (1981) joined Berylls at the beginning of 2021. He has over fifteen years of experience in the automotive industry. Thereof he spent seven years at an international automotive supplier with assignments in Spain, the USA and Mexico and over eight years in consulting. His focus is in operations excellence, especially in large transformation programs, process optimizations and efficiency improvements in administrative functions and indirect operations areas. He counts suppliers and OEMs to his clients alike.

Philipp M. Stuetz graduated in business administration from the universities of Stuttgart and Strasbourg.

ie aktuelle Transformation der Automobilindustrie stellt besondere Anforderungen an die Restrukturierung; sie muss von allen Stakeholdern als Chance begriffen werden.

In den vergangenen Jahren hat die Automobilindustrie eine Phase großer Veränderungen und Unsicherheit durchlaufen. Auslöser waren die Covid-19 Pandemie, der Krieg in der Ukraine und der Übergang zu Elektroantrieben. Besonders betroffen von dieser Transformation der Automobilindustrie sind dabei Zulieferer, wie zuletzt die Insolvenzen namhafter Großunternehmen wie Dr. Schneider und Borgers zeigten. Restrukturierung ist wieder ein aktuelles Thema in der Branche. Die betriebswirtschaftliche Mechanik bleibt dieselbe wie in früheren Zeiten, aber die ergriffenen Maßnahmen sollten angepasst holistischer werden.

Transformation Der Automobilindustrie: Zulieferer haben das Nachsehen

Während die OEMs in der Krise auch bei geringeren Stückzahlen durch eine Fokussierung auf margenstarke Fahrzeuge Gewinne verzeichneten, sah dies bei Zulieferern anders aus. Im Jahr 2022 waren die Margen der OEMs durchschnittlich ein Drittel höher als die der Zulieferer. Insbesondere im zweiten Quartal mussten viele Lieferanten einen Margeneinbruch verzeichnen.

Die Premiumstrategie vieler heimischer Automobilhersteller wird dazu führen, dass auch in Zukunft keine neuen Stückzahlrekorde erreicht werden. Hinzu kommt, dass durch die stetig steigende Anzahl elektrifizierter Fahrzeuge viele Komponenten entfallen. Die Wertschöpfung am Fahrzeug wird neu aufgeteilt. Der eigentliche Fahrzeugbau verliert, Softwareanteile gewinnen an Bedeutung. Nur Zulieferer, die sich auf die neuen Gegebenheiten einstellen und ihre Strategie darauf ausrichten, werden in der Lage sein, dem Druck von neuen Playern, die in den Markt drängen standzuhalten. Zulieferer wie der Batteriehersteller CATL waren vor zehn Jahren noch unbekannte Start-ups. Heute dominieren sie in ihren Gebieten. Das erhöht potenziell den Druck der Transformation der Automobilindustrie.

Es ist nicht verwunderlich, dass etablierte Zulieferer sich ein großes Stück vom künftig kleineren Kuchen sichern wollen. Den OEMs ist das recht, da der Wettbewerb für niedrige Einkaufspreise sorgt. Nachdem die Risikoabteilungen von der Corona-Krise noch überrascht wurden, haben sie zwischenzeitlich ihre Hausaufgaben gemacht. Welche Zulieferpleite man riskieren will, scheint abgemacht.

Insbesondere bei Zulieferern mit bereits geschwächten Eigenkapitalquoten besteht die Herausforderung, im Wettbewerb um künftige Plattformen zu bestehen und die hohen Investitionskosten für solche Plattformen zu tragen. Gleichzeitig sind seit Ende 2021 stark steigende Refinanzierungskosten und schärfere Anforderungen bei Kreditanträgen zu beobachten. Dies erschwert es insbesondere mittelständischen Familienunternehmen, ihre Eigenständigkeit zu bewahren und eine Liquiditätskrise zu vermeiden.

Umdenken erforderlich

Wie die Insolvenzen von Dr. Schneider und Borgers zeigen, kann die aktuelle Krise Unternehmen jeder Größe betreffen. Es ist daher von großer Bedeutung, frühzeitig und ganzheitlich Probleme zu erkennen und gegenzusteuern. Viele Unternehmen der Automobilindustrie begehen den Fehler, das Umsatzniveau um jeden Preis halten zu wollen und ihre Anlagen auszulasten, um Deckungsbeiträge oder Leasingraten zu erwirtschaften. Dieses Vorgehen nimmt ein stabiles Geschäftsumfeld an und ist aktuell ungeeignet. Stattdessen müssen Unternehmen sich darauf einstellen, dass das Umfeld weiterhin volatil bleiben wird. Sie sind oftmals besser gerüstet, wenn sie die Realität anerkennen, ihre Kapazitäten schnell anpassen und flexibel gestalten. Ein Fokus auf ein profitables Kerngeschäft und schnelle Maßnahmen zur Kostensenkung können erforderlich sein. Dieses Umdenken ist jedoch nicht einfach und emotionalisiert. Sogenannte IDW S6 Gutachten, als Regelwerkzeug vieler Restrukturierungen, konterkarieren zusätzlich die erforderlichen Maßnahmen durch ihre Forderung nach einer positiven Umsatzentwicklung.

Ganzheitliche Sichtweise

Eine Restrukturierung muss von allen Stakeholdern als Chance begriffen werden, ein Unternehmen zukunftsfähig zu machen und auf Profitabilität auszurichten. Dabei gilt es, drei grundlegende Aspekte zu berücksichtigen:

1) Die Strategie und Führung müssen zur neuen Realität in der Autoindustrie passen, um eine lediglich kurzfristige Lösung zu vermeiden. Es gilt eine mögliche Unternehmenskrise frühzeitig zu erkennen und angemessen darauf zu reagieren.

2) Maßnahmen im Bereich operatives Handeln sind wichtig, um sicherzustellen, dass ein Unternehmen einen entsprechenden Output als Beitrag zur Restrukturierung leistet. Ein ausgefeilter Methodenbaukasten ist essenziell, sodass die Maßnahmen einen bestmöglichen Wirkungsgrad erreichen können.

3) Insbesondere, aber eben nicht ausschließlich, müssen die Finanzen des Unternehmens in den Griff gebracht werden. Durchhaltevermögen ist dabei wichtig und von allen Stakeholdern erforderlich, da Restrukturierungsmaßnahmen oft Abschmelzeffekte von bis zu 50 Prozent erreichen können.

Ganzheitliche Sicht auf Unternehmensrestrukturierungen
360° – Ansatz

Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Die gegenwärtigen Entwicklungen und Transformationen in der Automobilindustrie machen klar, dass betroffene Unternehmen sämtliche gewohnten Rahmenbedingungen auf den Prüfstand stellen müssen. Vor diesem Hintergrund sollten sich Manager und Gesellschafter bewusst sein, dass einfache, kurzfristige Lösungen in Restrukturierungssituationen nicht ausreichen, um nachhaltige Ergebnisse zu erzielen. Vielmehr bedarf es eines umfassenden und ganzheitlichen Ansatzes, der Unternehmen auf allen Ebenen optimiert und zukunftsfähig ausrichtet.

Mehr zur Transformation der Automobilindustrie:

Six transformation secrets for auto industry leaders

Our hearts beat for transformation!

Autoren

Philipp Stütz

Associate Partner

philipp.stuetz@berylls.com

Anton Knaus

Research

anton.knaus@berylls.com

Philipp Stütz

Philipp M. Stütz (1981) verstärkt seit Anfang 2021 das Berylls Operations Team. Er besitzt über fünfzehn Jahre Erfahrung in der Automobilindustrie. Davon hat er sieben Jahre bei einem internationalen Automobilzulieferer mit Einsätzen in Spanien, den USA und Mexiko und über acht Jahre in der Beratung verbracht. Sein Beratungsschwerpunkt liegt im Bereich Operations Excellence, insbesondere in großen Transformationsprogrammen, Prozessoptimierungen und der Effizienzsteigerung in der Administration und indirekten Produktionsbereichen. Zu den Klienten, die er betreut, zählen Zulieferer wie OEMs gleichermaßen.
Philipp M. Stütz ist technisch orientierter Diplomkaufmann und hat an den Universitäten Stuttgart und Straßburg studiert.

ow suppliers can rise to the challenge of carmakers moving production out of Europe. Macro-economic shocks are prompting Europe’s OEMs to shift production capacity towards North America and China. The region’s suppliers must respond rapidly and flexibly to remain globally competitive.

In 2022 the auto industry was buffeted by a series of macro-economic shocks, including turbulence on global raw materials and energy markets and the steepest hikes in interest rates for more than forty years. As a result, vehicle production forecasts have fallen. At the end of 2021, it was predicted that 91.9 million vehicles would be produced globally in 2023, but by the end of 2022 this forecast had been downgraded to 85.3 million vehicles. Going forward, the forecast for global vehicle production in 2029 has slipped from 102.7 million to 96.4 million units.

While this downward trend is worldwide, European car manufacturers are under exceptional pressure because various regional competitive disadvantages appear to be setting in for the long term.

Europe’s competitive disadvantages

One major problem in Europe, and particularly in Germany, is high energy costs. For example, electricity prices before taxes and levies on European energy exchanges remained more than double the level of equivalent prices in the US, even though the steep hikes have ended. In Europe, energy expenditure by OEMs can reach up to three megawatt hours per vehicle in production, putting the region’s manufacturing sites at a clear disadvantage. This issue is compounded by the continuing rise in the proportion of electricity in the energy mix adopted by OEMs to fulfil national and EU sustainability requirements. The higher regulatory conditions which the industry is subject to in Germany and Europe also create a competitive disadvantage, especially in comparison with North America.

DIFFERENCE ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION FORECASTS 2021 VS. 2022 & ENERGY COSTS 2022
[MILLION VEHICLES ADJUSTED FOR GENERAL DECLINE IN TOTAL PRODUCTION – CUMULATIVE 2023-2029][COSTS / MWH ELECTRICITY Ø2022]

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, IHS, Bloomberg, Datenstand Prognose 11/2021 & 11/2022
Electricity prices: Europe with average of major markets, North America with U.S. prices as proxy

European OEMs are also affected by manufacturing subsidies introduced in other leading industrial countries such as the 2022 US Inflation Reduction Act. After a short time-lag, the knock-on effect on European vehicle production forecasts is now visible. Since the end of 2021, projections for Germany and Europe between 2023 and 2029 have become considerably more pessimistic, especially in comparison with North America and China. It is striking in this context that German manufacturers’ share of global vehicle production declines during this period from 5.8% to 5.3%, suggesting that the current political and economic climate is encouraging the car industry to pull out of the very country where the automobile was invented (See Figure 1).

Production relocations increase the challenges for suppliers

The growing number of production relocations by European OEMs presents considerable challenges for the region’s automotive supply chain, and for suppliers in particular. When OEMs decide to move some production out of Europe, suppliers can suddenly find themselves in a tight spot if the manufacturer’s projected output in the region is shifted or if production of a whole model series is shifted to a different non-European location.

At the same time, the car industry is still in the transition to electromobility which is presenting the suppliers with more familiar problems such as margin pressure, lower volumes and higher investments. On top of this, production relocations mean that European suppliers must adjust their footprint, or at least examine it regularly. This impacts production sites and production-related functions, such as product and technology development.

Product portfolio and company size affect the scale of the challenges

The effects of production relocations on suppliers can be generally classified on the basis of the product portfolio and size of the company. Direct effects for suppliers arise when relevant production volumes or whole model series are relocated. In the short to medium term, the growth market for electric vehicles is particularly relevant, because the model portfolio and production sites are developing so rapidly. Yet in this crucial sector, between 2021 and 2022 the forecast electric vehicle production volume of Germany’s three leading OEMs for the period 2023-2029 fell from 13.2 million units to 13.0 million units. Meanwhile, electric vehicle production in North America is set to increase from 1.4 million to 2.0 million units, including the production of new model series.

Consider BMW’s iX3, which according to the most recent forecasts will now be manufactured in Mexico as well as China. So far only the 2-Series and the 3-Series have been produced by BMW in Mexico for the North American market. Germany cannot keep up with this and is set to lose a volume of nearly 79,000 vehicles until 2029. A high localisation rate of more than 90 percent highlights the challenges for suppliers who do not have a presence in the relevant region.

The size of the company is another important influence factor. Larger suppliers are less affected than small and medium-sized companies because they already have a global network with multiple production plants and therefore more flexibility. Additional challenges for smaller suppliers are local recruitment and the security of production start-ups at new international locations.

An overarching risk in production relocations is represented by all necessary investments and the resulting capital requirements. In recent years, the auto industry has invested massively in the transition to electromobility, but this expenditure occurred in an era of historically low borrowing rates which has now suddenly come to an end. Amid worldwide inflation and an uncertain economic outlook, financial investors are demanding considerably stricter conditions when lending to suppliers, increasing the difficulty of meeting the challenges presented by OEMs relocating their production.

Key strategies for suppliers to remain competitive as OEMs relocate away from Europe

There is no standard solution for these challenges that will work for all suppliers. As we have noted, a company’s product portfolio, existing production network and overall size have a bearing on the right approach to adopt. However, for many market participants, active and forward-thinking management of their portfolio will be crucial. Apart from this, company takeovers, cooperations and strategic partnerships can help to reduce capital needs, optimize their footprint and manage risk more effectively.

In conclusion, the question arises as to whether delays in production volume in combination with a worsening interest rate environment will accelerate consolidation in the field of combustion components. Here too, a proactive approach without taboos will be necessary to maintain or develop a competitive position.

Authors

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

alexander.timmer@berylls.com

Stefan Schneeberger

Project Manager

stefan.schneeberger@berylls.com

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, as a partner in May 2021. He is an expert in market entry and growth strategies, M&A and can look back on many years of experience in the operations environment. Dr. Alexander Timmer has been advising automotive manufacturers and suppliers in a global context since 2012. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of portfolio planning, development and production. His other areas of expertise include digitalization and the complex of topics surrounding electromobility.
Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked for Booz & Company and PwC Strategy&, among others, as a member of the management team in North America, Asia and Europe.
After studying mechanical engineering at RWTH Aachen University and Chalmers University in Gothenburg, he earned his doctorate in manufacturing technologies at the Machine Tool Laboratory of RWTH Aachen University.

THE CARDS ARE RESHUFFLED IN CHINA’S PREMIUM CAR MARKET

Chinese premium brands, the so-called New Premiums, are becoming increasingly popular with customers. In the cut-throat competition with traditional luxury class manufacturers, the Chinese are moving into the fast lane.

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Authors

Dr. Jan Burgard

Berylls Group CEO

jan.burgard@berylls.com

Willy Wang

Associate Partner & MD China

willy.wang@berylls.com

Lois Yang

Lead Analyst

lois.yang@berylls.com

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Dr. Jan Burgard

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) is CEO of Berylls Group, an international group of companies providing professional services to the automotive industry.

His responsibilities include accelerating the transformation of luxury and premium OEMs, with a particular focus on digitalization, big data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Dr. Jan Burgard is also responsible for the implementation of digital products at Berylls and is a proven expert for the Chinese market.

Dr. Jan Burgard started his career at the investment bank MAN GROUP in New York. He developed a passion for the automotive industry during stopovers at an American consultancy and as manager at a German premium manufacturer. In October 2011, he became a founding partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors. The top management consultancy was the origin of today’s Group and continues to be the professional nucleus of the Group.

After studying business administration and economics, he earned his doctorate with a thesis on virtual product development in the automotive industry.

Willy Wang

Willy Lu Wang (1981) joined Berylls Strategy Advisors in 2017. He started his career participating in the graduate program of Audi focusing on production planning. After stations at another strategy consultancy as well as being the strategy director for a German Tier-1 supplier, he is now responsible for the China business at Berylls.

He has a broad consulting focus working for all clients in China, whether they are JVs, WOFEs or pure local players. He is also responsible for the development of AI and Big Data products dedicated towards the Chinese market further strengthening the Berylls End-to-End strategy and product development capabilities.

Wang studied Electronics & Information Technology with focus on Systems and Software Engineering and Control Theory at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

akroökonomische Schocks haben die Attraktivität des Standortes Europa für die Automobilindustrie nachhaltig beeinflusst und eine Verlagerung der OEM-Produktionsvolumen in Richtung Nordamerika und China ausgelöst.

Zulieferer sind von dieser Entwicklung direkt betroffen und stehen vor der Herausforderung, auf diese Verlagerungen angemessen zu reagieren. Folgt auf die technologische Transformation die Anpassung des regionalen Footprints? Und müssen Zulieferer wieder in Vorleistung gehen?

Das Jahr 2022 war gekennzeichnet von wegweisenden makroökonomischen Schocks, wie den Verwerfungen auf den globalen Rohstoff- und Energiemärkten sowie einem seit mehr als 40 Jahren unvergleichlichen Anstieg des Zinsniveaus. Die Automobilindustrie ist davon direkt betroffen. Ein wesentlicher übergeordneter Indikator hierfür ist der Rückgang der Stückzahlprognosen. Gingen die Prognosen Ende 2021 für das Jahr 2023 global noch von 91,9 Mio. produzierten Fahrzeugen aus, sank dieser Wert in den Prognosen Ende 2022 auf 85,3 Mio. Fahrzeuge. Für das Jahr 2029 wird nun ein Rückgang von 102,7 Mio. Fahrzeuge auf 96,4 Mio. Fahrzeuge prognostiziert. Neben dem allgemeinen Rückgang der Produktion auf globaler Ebene, ist die Automobilindustrie in Europa durch diese Entwicklungen besonders betroffen, da sich ein Wettbewerbsnachteil für Europa nachhaltig zu verfestigen scheint.

Nachteil für europäische Standorte

Ein zentraler Nachteil in Europa und besonders Deutschland sind die hohen Energiekosten. Nachdem sich extreme Preisspitzen wieder geglättet haben, liegt das Preisniveau für Strom, vor Steuern und Abgaben, in Europa an den Energiebörsen um den Faktor zwei bis drei höher als beispielsweise in den USA. Bei einem Energieaufwand von bis zu drei Megawattstunden pro Fahrzeug in der Produktion beim OEM, ergibt sich ein deutlicher Nachteil für europäische Standorte. Dieser Effekt wird durch einen weiterhin ansteigenden Anteil von Strom am Energiemix verstärkt, um Nachhaltigkeitsvorgaben zu erfüllen. Aber auch die höheren regulatorischen Auflagen, denen sich die Industrie in Deutschland und Europa ausgesetzt sieht, sprechen für einen Wettbewerbsnachteil, insbesondere im Vergleich mit Nordamerika.

DIFFERENZBETRACHTUNG PRODUKTIONSPROGNOSEN 2021 VS. 2022 & ENERGIEKOSTEN 2022 [MIO. FAHRZEUGE BEREINIGT UM ALLGEMEINEN RÜCKGANG IN GESAMTPRODUKTION – KUMULATIV 2023-2029][KOSTEN / MWH STROM Ø2022]

Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors, IHS, Bloomberg, Datenstand Prognose 11/2021 & 11/2022
Strompreise: Europa mit Durchschnitt der wesentlichen Märkte, Nordamerika mit Preisen der USA als Proxy

Verstärkt wird der Wettbewerbsnachteil in Europa durch eine subventionsgesteuerte Politik anderer Industrieländer, wie dem Inflation Reduction Act in den USA. Dieser Umstand hat sich nach einer kurzen Verzögerung bereits in den Stückzahlprognosen für die Fahrzeugproduktion in Europa niedergeschlagen. In dem Zeitraum 2023 bis 2029 sind die Stückzahlprognosen von Ende 2022 für Deutschland und Europa wesentlich pessimistischer als dies noch Ende 2021 angenommen wurde, besonders im Vergleich mit Nordamerika und China. Der Anteil der deutschen Hersteller an der globalen Fahrzeugproduktion geht in diesem Zeitraum von 5,8% auf 5,3% zurück. In Summe legen diese Zahlen nahe, dass aktuelle politische und ökonomische Rahmenbedingungen in Deutschland und Europa die Ursache dafür sind, dass die Automobilindustrie sich zunehmend aus dem Ursprungsland der Automobilität zurückzieht.

Produktionsverlagerungen verstärken Herausforderungen für Zulieferer

Zunehmende Produktionsverlagerungen stellen die automobile Wertschöpfungskette in Europa vor wesentliche Herausforderungen. Bei einem detaillierten Blick ergeben sich jedoch insbesondere Herausforderungen für die Zulieferer. OEMs können die Standortentscheidung zunächst unabhängig treffen. Zulieferer können hingegen schnell unter Zugzwang geraten, wenn sich OEM-Produktionsvolumina verschieben oder ganze Baureihen zukünftig an anderen Standorten gefertigt werden.

Derzeit befindet sich die Automobilindustrie weiterhin im Übergang hin zur Elektromobilität und stellt auch die Zulieferer vor die bekannten Herausforderungen wie Margendruck, geringe Stückzahlen und hohe Investitionsbedarfe. Zusätzlich werden europäische Zulieferer, infolge der Produktionsverlagerungen der Hersteller, auch ihren Footprint anpassen oder zumindest regelmäßig überprüfen müssen. Dies betrifft sowohl Produktionsstandorte als auch produktionsnahe Funktionen wie die Produkt- und Technologieentwicklung.

Produktportfolio und Unternehmensgröße beeinflussen die Herausforderungen

Allgemein lassen sich die Auswirkungen von Produktionsverlagerungen auf Zulieferer auf der Basis des Produktportfolios und der Unternehmensgröße klassifizieren. Direkte Auswirkungen für Zulieferer ergeben sich, wenn sich relevante Produktionsvolumina regional verschieben sowie gesamte Modellreihen verlagert werden. Von besonderer Relevanz ist hier kurz- bis mittelfristig der Wachstumsmarkt der Elektrofahrzeuge, in dem sich das Modellportfolio und die Produktionsstandorte dynamisch entwickeln. Auch hier zeigt ein Vergleich der Prognosen aus 2021 und 2022, dass sich das kumulative Produktionsvolumen der drei deutschen OEMs im Zeitraum 2023 bis 2029 in Deutschland von 13,2 Mio. Elektrofahrzeugen auf 13,0 Million Elektrofahrzeuge rückläufig entwickelt. In Nordamerika steigt das Volumen im direkten Vergleich von 1,4 Mio. auf 2,0 Mio. Elektrofahrzeuge, inklusive der Produktion von neuen Modellreihen.

Exemplarisch lässt sich hier der BMW iX3 nennen, der in den neuesten Prognosen nun neben China zukünftig auch in Mexiko hergestellt wird. In Mexiko wurden von BMW bisher nur die 2er- und 3er-Serie für den amerikanischen Markt hergestellt. Deutschland kann hier nicht mithalten und verliert für den Zeitraum bis 2029 ein Volumen von knapp 79 Tausend Fahrzeugen. Eine hohe Lokalisierungsquote von mehr als 90 Prozent zeigt die Herausforderungen für Zulieferer auf, die in den jeweiligen Regionen nicht vor Ort sind.

Die Größe des Unternehmens wirkt als zweiter wesentlicher Einflussfaktor. Aufgrund der bereits vorhandenen globalen Ausrichtung sind die Auswirkungen für größere Zulieferer geringer. Kleine und mittelständische Zulieferer werden hier wesentlich stärker betroffen sein als globale Player mit einer Vielzahl an Werken und einer draus resultierenden höheren Flexibilität. Weitere Herausforderungen für kleinere Zulieferer sind zudem die Mitarbeiterverfügbarkeit und die Absicherung der Produktionsanläufe an den neuen Auslandsstandorten.

Ein übergeordnetes Risiko bei Produktionsverlagerungen stellen die notwendigen Investitionen und der daraus resultierende Kapitalbedarf dar. Bereits in den vergangenen Jahren wurden hohe zweistellige Milliardenbeträge in den Übergang hin zur Elektromobilität investiert. Dies geschah jedoch in einem Umfeld von historisch tiefen Finanzierungkosten, welches nun schlagartig zu Ende gegangen ist. Zusätzlich sind die Anforderungen von finanziellen Investoren an Kreditvergaben deutlich restriktiver geworden.

Mit proaktivem Ansatz im Wettbewerb behaupten

Standardlösungen für die Herausforderungen durch Produktionsverlagerungen existieren nicht. Zu unterschiedlich sind die spezifischen Situationen der einzelnen Zulieferer auf Basis des Produktportfolios, dem bestehenden Produktionsnetzwerk und der Unternehmensgröße. Es wird jedoch für eine Vielzahl an Marktteilnehmern entscheidend sein, eine aktive und vorausschauende Steuerung Ihres Portfolios zu betreiben. Des Weiteren können Firmenübernahmen, Kooperationen und strategische Partnerschaften dazu dienen, den Kapitalbedarf zu reduzieren, den Footprint zu optimieren sowie Risiken besser zu steuern.

Abschließend stellt sich die Frage, ob die Verschiebungen der Produktionsvolumen in Kombination mit einem sich verschärfenden Zinsumfeld die Konsolidierung im Bereich der Verbrennerkomponenten beschleunigen wird. Auch hier wird ein proaktiver Ansatz ohne Tabus notwendig sein, um die eigene Wettbewerbsposition zu behaupten oder auszubauen.

Autoren

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

alexander.timmer@berylls.com

Stefan Schneeberger

Project Manager

stefan.schneeberger@berylls.com

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) ist seit Mai 2021 als Partner bei Berylls by AlixPartners (ehemals Berylls Strategy Advisors) tätig, einer internationalen und auf die Automobilitätsindustrie spezialisierten Strategieberatung. Er ist Experte für Markteintritts- und Wachstumsstrategien, M&A und kann auf eine langjährige Erfahrung im Operations-Umfeld zurückschauen. Dr. Alexander Timmer berät seit 2012 Automobilhersteller und -zulieferer im globalen Kontext. Er verfügt über ein fundiertes Expertenwissen in den Bereichen Portfolioplanung, Entwicklung und Produktion. Zu seinen weiteren fachlichen Schwerpunkten zählen unter anderem Digitalisierung und der Themenkomplex rund um die Elektromobilität.
Vor seinem Einstieg bei Berylls Strategy Advisors war er unter anderem für Booz & Company und PwC Strategy& als Mitglied der Geschäftsführung in Nordamerika, Asien und Europa tätig.
Im Anschluss an sein Maschinenbaustudium an der RWTH Aachen und der Chalmers University in Göteborg promovierte er im Bereich der Fertigungstechnologien am Werkzeugmaschinenlabor der RWTH Aachen.

he industry has been critical of the new law, but it will give German companies an opportunity to get ahead of EU competitors who will also soon face more stringent ESG requirements

Germany’s Supply Chain Due Diligence Act (SDDA) came into force on 1 January 2023 as part of the government’s ambition to ensure that businesses comply with human rights and employment legislation, as well as environmental standards. In addition, the government hopes the SDDA will highlight Germany’s leading role in Europe on these issues and provide the opportunity to create more transparent, robust supply chains in the long term. Suppliers in the car industry will be a critical test of the law’s impact and the ability of companies to overcome the administrative challenges. However, suppliers would prefer more specific guidance about how to comply with the law’s requirements.

The SDDA will be introduced in stages. In the first instance, it will apply to companies which have their headquarters or a branch office in Germany and employ more than 3,000 people in the country. This includes about 60 car suppliers. From 2024 onward, the threshold will be reduced to 1,000 employees, covering a total of about 140 car suppliers in Germany.

Defined duties of care will apply to the company and its direct suppliers, and in specific cases to indirect suppliers. This will involve carrying out regular risk assessments relating to human rights and environmental standards, from the identification of risks to mitigating measures. Substantial fines of up to €500,000 or 2% of annual revenue can be imposed in cases of infringement.

Suppliers see the SDDA as an administrative headache

For some years now, car manufacturers (OEMs) have required suppliers to meet a range of conditions regarding human and employee rights and environmental standards, and show proof of compliance. The SDDA increases the administrative and reporting burden for suppliers. In the months before the Act came into force, departments such as sales, purchasing, human resources and sustainability were preoccupied with implementing its requirements.

For suppliers, the following challenges are particularly demanding:

Higher staff costs: Several full-time employees, and sometimes more, are usually required to perform the required due diligence and ensure compliance with the law, depending on the company’s size and the complexity of its supply chain.
Vague scope of required risk assessments: In theory, all suppliers of direct and indirect product groups and materials must be included in risk assessments, given the ambiguous way in which the law has been drafted. For medium-sized German suppliers, this means between 10,000 and 15,000 sub-suppliers fall within the law’s scope; for large, established suppliers it could be almost double that number.
Inadequate information: Both external and internal data need to be consulted to identify the relevant suppliers’ risk profiles for human and employee rights and environmental standards. However, such data tends to be incomplete and fragmented, and therefore of limited use. Adding to the problem, many suppliers currently provide external information in the form of risk indices. So, the selection of suitable and reliable indices is made according to their best guess without legal requirements.
Challenging worldwide implications: German suppliers with global supply chains often encounter difficulties when performing due diligence and selecting risk indices in foreign jurisdictions. The physical distances involved can be significant, while there are also different working practices and cultures to contend with.
Uncertainty about the right risk-assessment and compliance tools: Tools can assist with implementation and compliance with regulatory requirements. However, these tools do not currently feature end-to-end coverage of all due diligence areas, from risk assessments to documentation of countermeasures and tracking of their effectiveness. Digital tools are rarely used, with risk assessments carried out manually, as far as possible, because most suppliers want to avoid a fragmented system landscape. However, the result is increased expenditure and a higher error rate.

Pressure from suppliers for more specific legal requirements

Although many German car industry suppliers are well on the way to implementing the SDDA, these challenges mean they continue to take a critical view of the law’s requirements. Their administrative costs have risen sharply, adding to the compliance costs already imposed on them as suppliers to OEMs, whose requirements are in some cases even more extensive than the conditions set by the SDDA.

The effectiveness of the law is also questionable, because it involves a duty of effort rather than a duty of success. The SDDA does not make clear to suppliers which specific measures should be taken in a risk situation, when to implement them and what consequences to expect. Suppliers would prefer the introduction of industry-specific standardization to reduce their administrative costs. This would include recommended actions and requirements for the risk indices to be used for the identification of country and industry risks during the assessments.

Suppliers want standard questionnaires to reduce the large number of questions in differing formats and to simplify the collection of important information along the global supply chain. If the SDDA were made more specific, the industry would be able to minimize the scope for different interpretations of the law’s requirements – for example, by clarifying the definition of suppliers to be assessed to ensure that full due diligence is conducted along the supply chain relevant to the car industry.

The SDDA weakens small and innovative suppliers

There are two main reasons for differing perceptions among car suppliers about the Act’s costs and benefits: the company’s size and profitability, and the complexity of its value chain. The SDDA’s impact in terms of higher costs is felt most by small and medium-sized suppliers operating innovative and often complex value chains. According to one study, the cost of compliance with the SDDA in the supplier industry lies between 0.5% and 1% of annual profits.

Range of costs for compliance with SDDA

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Larger suppliers of course incur higher costs to comply with the SDDA, but the law’s impact on smaller suppliers’ profits is greater. Unlike large suppliers, they have to follow new risk and compliance structures or even start again from scratch. Their expenses are mainly made up of direct and indirect staff costs and the cost of hiring external service providers which support them in meeting the terms of the Act.

Electric car batteries carry the highest SDDA-related risk

Experience has shown that the highest risks regarding observance of environmental, social and governance (ESG) standards are found at the start of the supply chain. Consider, for example, the high-voltage electric car battery:

75% of all cobalt is extracted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which has major problems concerning child labor, safety at work and water pollution.
Two-thirds of all graphite is extracted in China, where there are considerable risks because of the chemicals used, in addition to human rights issues.
Aluminum should also be evaluated critically, because the bauxite needed for extraction is often associated with environmental pollution, illegal deforestation and child labor.

Overall, it is striking that the components of a BEV which currently involve the greatest innovation – the battery, E/E system and electromotor – have a particularly high SDDA risk profile. This is principally because critical raw materials such as rare earths, cobalt, silicon and aluminum are processed to make them. From a sustainability perspective, the law is therefore being introduced at the right time to ensure observance of ESG standards along the BEV supply chain. This in turn will help promote more sustainable development of E-mobility and boost consumer confidence in the car industry’s sustainability performance.

Comparative SDDA risks of car components
(in %)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

The SDDA is an opportunity for suppliers, despite their criticism of the additional costs

German suppliers were already under margin pressure before the SDDA and are now burdened by extra compliance costs. In this environment, it is hardly surprising that many companies are critical of the new law, which has increased their insecurity, especially given the potentially steep penalties for failing to comply. So far, suppliers are often only meeting the minimum standard for compliance with the SDDA, instead of using the law to create additional value.

Yet in the long term, the German supplier industry stands to gain from the establishment of more sustainable and ethical supply chains. Consistent implementation of the SDDA will build valuable expertise across the industry, enabling suppliers to recognize potential risks early enough to take effective action. This in turn will help them to improve their resilience, efficiency and competitiveness.

The automotive industry is already working on standardized solutions such as Catena-X for data exchange along the entire global supply chain, while in an industry consortium funded by the German Ministry of Economics, OEMs, suppliers and digital companies are working on the first open data ecosystem. This should help harmonize the data networks of all companies in the automotive supply chain (from tier-n to recycler) through standardized, simple and secure data exchange according to the Gaia-X standard, and enable suppliers to perform ESG risk analyses with less effort.

A comparable EU-wide law is expected to be introduced after 2025 with the SDDA as the blueprint. German suppliers have the opportunity to enjoy preferential treatment over European competitors when bidding for contracts in the region as they assume responsibility along the whole supply chain for improving human and employee rights and raising environmental standards, in line with the SDDA. In the end, employees, customers and investors will reward ethical and sustainable action in the future – and that includes creating ESG-compliant supply chains.

Authors

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

alexander.timmer@berylls.com

Lars Behr

Senior Consultant

lars.behr@berylls.com

Fabian Dinescu

Senior Consultant

fabian.dinescu@berylls.com

Daniel Willenbrink

Senior Venture Associate

daniel.willenbrink@berylls.com

Felix Günther

Consultant

felix.guenther@berylls.com

Dr. Alexander Timmer

as Lieferkettensorgfaltspflichtengesetz (LkSG) ist am 1. Januar 2023 in Deutschland in Kraft getreten. Regierung und Gesetzgeber wollen die Wirtschaft stärker in die Verantwortung nehmen, um die Einhaltung von Menschenrechten, Arbeitnehmer- und Umweltschutz sicherzustellen.

Auf diese Weise soll die Vorreiterrolle Deutschlands im europäischen Vergleich betont und die Chance genutzt werden, Lieferketten langfristig transparenter und robuster zu gestalten. Zulieferer der Automobilbranche sehen die bürokratischen Herausforderungen und Auswirkungen des Gesetzes kritisch und wünschen sich konkretere Vorgaben.

Durch eine schrittweise Einführung gilt das LkSG zunächst für Unternehmen mit Sitz oder Niederlassung in Deutschland und mehr als 3.000 Beschäftigten in Deutschland (rund 60 Automobilzulieferer). Ab 2024 wird die Schwelle auf 1.000 Beschäftigte gesenkt (rund 140 Automobilzulieferer). Festgelegte Sorgfaltspflichten gelten sowohl für die Unternehmen selbst als auch für die unmittelbaren Lieferanten, und in bestimmten Fällen werden sie auf die mittelbaren Lieferanten ausgeweitet. Dies beinhaltet die Durchführung einer regelmäßigen Risikoanalyse im Bereich Menschen- und Umweltrechte, die sämtliche Schritte von der Identifikation der Risiken bis zur Umsetzung von Maßnahmen zur Risikominderung umfasst. Im Falle von Verstößen gegen die Sorgfaltspflichten drohen erhebliche Bußgelder von bis zu einer halben Million Euro oder zwei Prozent des Jahresumsatzes.

Zulieferer empfinden LkSG als bürokratische Hürde

Bereits seit einigen Jahren werden Automobilzulieferer durch die verschiedenen Vergabekriterien der Automobilhersteller (OEMs) verpflichtet, vielfältige Kriterien hinsichtlich der Menschenrechte sowie des Arbeitnehmer- und Umweltschutzes zu erfüllen und diese nachzuweisen. Mit dem neuen Gesetz verschärfen sich nun Bürokratie und Berichterstattung. Monate vor dem Inkrafttreten des LkSG waren Abteilungen wie Vertrieb, Einkauf, Personalwesen und Nachhaltigkeit intensiv damit beschäftigt, die Anforderungen des Gesetzes umzusetzen. Zulieferer der Automobilindustrie sehen gerade in den folgenden Bereichen Herausforderungen

Erhöhter Personalaufwand: Abhängig von der Unternehmensgröße und der Komplexität der Lieferkette werden in der Regel mehrere Vollzeitkräfte benötigt, um die Anforderungen des LkSG zu erfüllen.
Unkonkreter Umfang der Risikoanalyse: Aufgrund der unklaren Vorgaben bei der Ausgestaltung der Risikoanalyse müssen theoretisch alle unmittelbaren Lieferanten direkter und indirekter Warengruppen bzw. Materialien in die Risikoanalyse einbezogen werden. Bei mittelständischen Zulieferern sind damit 10.000 bis 15.000 Unterlieferanten betroffen. Bei den großen etablierten Zulieferern kann die Lieferantenbasis um den Faktor 2 und mehr größer sein.
Unzureichende Informationsgrundlage: Für die Durchführung der Risikoanalyse werden sowohl externe als auch interne Daten herangezogen, um das Vorliegen von Menschenrechts- oder Umweltrisiken bei den jeweiligen Lieferanten zu ermitteln. Bei den meisten Unternehmen sind die internen Stamm- und Lieferantendaten jedoch unvollständig und fragmentiert, wodurch ihre Nutzbarkeit stark eingeschränkt ist. Externe Informationen werden zudem von zahlreichen Anbietern in Form von Risikoindizes bereitgestellt. Die Auswahl der geeigneten und verlässlichen Risikoindizes erfolgt dabei ohne gesetzliche Vorgaben nach bestem Wissen und Gewissen.

Herausfordernde Umsetzung weltweit: Für Zulieferer mit weltweiten Lieferketten ist es schwierig, aus Deutschland heraus die Sorgfaltspflichten im eigenen Geschäftsbereich sowie in der unmittelbaren Lieferkette weltweit zu erfüllen, weil sie mit kulturellen Barrieren, einer lokalen Gesetzgebung und der Distanz zu den Lieferantenstandorten zu kämpfen haben.
Unsicherheit bei der Auswahl von Tools: Tools können bei der Umsetzung und Einhaltung der Gesetzesanforderungen unterstützen. Jedoch weisen diese gegenwärtig keine Ende-zu-Ende-Abdeckung aller Sorgfaltspflichten auf, beginnend bei der Risikoanalyse über die Dokumentation von Gegenmaßnahmen bis hin zur Nachverfolgung der Maßnahmenwirksamkeit. Da die Mehrzahl der Zulieferer eine fragmentierte Systemlandschaft vermeiden will, werden digitale Tools nur selten eingesetzt und die Risikoanalysen werden weitestgehend manuell durchgeführt. Damit einhergehend steigen jedoch Aufwand und Fehleranfälligkeit.

Wunsch nach Konkretisierung der gesetzlichen Vorgaben

Auch wenn viele Zulieferer in der Automobilindustrie auf einem guten Weg zur Umsetzung des LkSG sind, sorgen diese Herausforderungen dafür, dass die gesetzlichen Vorgaben in Summe kritisch gesehen werden. Zusätzlich zu den Vergabeanforderungen von OEMs – die zum Teil sogar weitreichender sind als die des LkSG – ist der administrative Aufwand stark gestiegen. Zudem sei die Wirksamkeit des Gesetzes fraglich, da es sich lediglich um eine Bemühungspflicht und nicht um eine Erfolgspflicht handelt. Für die Industrie ist unklar, welche konkreten Maßnahmen im Risikofall zu ergreifen sind und wann mit welchen Konsequenzen zu rechnen ist. Die Zuliefererindustrie wünscht sich eine industriespezifische Standardisierung, um den administrativen Aufwand zu reduzieren. Dazu gehören konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen und Vorgaben von zu verwendenden Indizes zur Bestimmung des Länder- und Industrierisikos im Rahmen der abstrakten Risikoanalyse.

Einheitliche Lieferantenfragebögen und ein standardisierter Austausch der relevanten Daten entlang der gesamten globalen Lieferkette, um die Vielfalt der Anfragen in unterschiedlichen Formaten zu reduzieren und die Erfassung erforderlicher Informationen von Lieferanten zu erleichtern, fehlen der Zuliefererindustrie. Eine Konkretisierung des LkSG würde der Zulieferindustrie helfen, den Interpretationsspielraum bei der Erfüllung der Anforderungen zu minimieren. Beispielhaft zu nennen ist eine klare Definition von zu analysierenden Lieferanten, um sicherzustellen, dass die Verpflichtungen entlang der für die Automobilbranche relevanten Lieferkette erfüllt werden. Das LkSG schwächt kleine und innovative Zulieferer

Die unterschiedliche Einschätzung von Automobilzulieferern zu Kosten und Nutzen des LkSG haben zwei Hauptursachen: Unternehmensgröße (Gewinn) und Komplexität der Wertschöpfung. Kleine und mittelständische Zulieferer, die innovative und damit häufig komplexe Wertschöpfung betreiben, spüren die Kosten des LkSG besonders. Eine Analyse zeigt, dass in der Zuliefererindustrie die Kosten zur Erfüllung des LkSG zwischen 0,05 und 1 Prozent des Jahresgewinns liegen.

Prozentuale Kosten des LkSG vom Jahresgewinn in Abhängigkeit des Unternehmensgewinns

Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Größere Zulieferer haben zwar absolut höhere Kosten zur Erfüllung des LkSG, relativ zum Gewinn werden aber kleinere Zulieferer stärker belastet. Im Gegensatz zu den großen Zulieferern müssen sie Strukturen nachziehen oder sogar neu aufbauen. Die Kosten bestehen im Wesentlichen aus Personalkosten (direkt und indirekt) sowie Kosten für externe Dienstleister, die bei der Erfüllung der Sorgfaltspflichten unterstützen.

Batterien von Elektroautos haben das größte LkSG-Risiko

Erfahrungsgemäß liegen die größten Risiken zur Einhaltung der ESG-Standards am Beginn der Lieferkette. Das Beispiel der Hochvoltbatterie eines Elektroautos und deren Rohstoffe verdeutlicht:

Kobalt wird zu 75 Prozent in der DR Kongo gewonnen mit großen Problemen mit Kinderarbeit, Arbeitssicherheit und Wasserverschmutzung in Verbindung gebracht.
Grafit wird zu zwei Drittel in China gewonnen. Neben Problemen mit Menschenrechten gibt es hier, bei natürlicher Gewinnung, erhebliche Umweltrisiken durch die eingesetzten Chemikalien.
Aluminiumgewinnung ist ebenso kritisch zu beurteilen. Das hierfür benötigte Bauxit wird häufig mit Umweltverschmutzung, illegalen Rodungen, sowie Kinderarbeit in Verbindung gebracht.

Insgesamt fällt auf, dass die Komponenten eines BEV, in denen aktuell die größten Innovationen stattfinden, ein besonders hohes LkSG-Risiko aufweisen (Batterie, E/E, Elektromotor). Das liegt daran, dass hier häufiger kritische Rohmaterialien, wie seltene Erden, Kobalt, Silizium und Aluminium, verarbeitet werden. Aus Nachhaltigkeitsaspekten wird daher das Gesetz zum richtigen Zeitpunkt eingeführt, um auch die Einhaltung von ESG-Standards entlang der Lieferkette zu gewährleisten. Dies trägt zur Förderung einer nachhaltigeren Entwicklung der E-Mobilität bei und stärkt das Vertrauen der Verbraucher in die Nachhaltigkeitsleistung der Automobilbranche.

Veränderung von Umsatz und Marge, Top 100 Zulieferer
(in %)

Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Trotz Kritik und Kosten ist das LkSG eine Chance

Die ohnehin unter Margendruck stehende Zuliefererindustrie wird durch die Kosten und erhöhten Aufwände des LkSG weiter belastet und übt Kritik. Die Umsetzung der Gesetzesanforderungen birgt Unsicherheit, die mit potenziellen Bußgeldern verbunden sind und daher ein erhebliches Risiko darstellen. Oftmals wird nur das Mindestmaß eingehalten, um die Pflichten des LkSG zu erfüllen, anstatt zusätzlichen Mehrwert zu schaffen. Dennoch kann die deutsche Zuliefererindustrie langfristig von der Etablierung nachhaltigerer und ethischerer Lieferketten profitieren. Durch die konsequente Umsetzung des LkSG bauen die Zulieferer wertvolles Know-how auf, um potenzielle Risiken frühzeitig zu erkennen und geeignete Maßnahmen zu ergreifen. Dies trägt dazu bei, ihre Resilienz, Effizienz und Wettbewerbsfähigkeit langfristig zu verbessern. Die Automobilindustrie arbeitet bereits an standardisierten Lösungen wie beispielsweise Catena-X zum Datenaustausch entlang der gesamten globalen Lieferkette. In dem vom deutschen Wirtschaftsministerium geförderten Konsortium arbeiten OEMs, Zulieferer und Digitalunternehmen am ersten offenen Datenökosystem. Der Dataspace vernetzt alle Akteure entlang der Automotive Supply Chain (vom n-Tier bis zum Recycler) und ermöglicht einen standardisierten, einfachen und sicheren Datenaustausch nach Gaia-X-Standard. Dadurch können Lieferanten im Rahmen des LkSG-Risikoanalysen mit weniger Aufwand und einer besseren Informationsgrundlage durchführen.

Ab Mitte der Dekade ist zu erwarten, dass ein vergleichbares Gesetz auf europäischer Ebene eingeführt wird. Blaupause hierfür wird das LkSG sein. Hier haben deutsche Zulieferer die Möglichkeit, sich von europäischen Wettbewerbern abzuheben und in Vergabeprozessen bevorzugt zu werden, indem sie entlang der gesamten Lieferkette Verantwortung übernehmen und Praktiken für verbesserte Menschenrechte, Arbeitnehmer- und Umweltschutz betonen. Abschließend erwarten und belohnen zukünftig Mitarbeiter, Kunden, aber auch der Kapitalmarkt ethisches und nachhaltiges Handeln – dies beinhaltet auch integre Lieferketten.

Autoren

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

alexander.timmer@berylls.com

Lars Behr

Senior Consultant

lars.behr@berylls.com

Fabian Dinescu

Senior Consultant

fabian.dinescu@berylls.com

Daniel Willenbrink

Senior Venture Associate

daniel.willenbrink@berylls.com

Felix Günther

Consultant

felix.guenther@berylls.com

Dr. Alexander Timmer

review of four myths on the future of car sales based on experiences of xEV buyers in Europe’s leading EV market, Norway.

Over many years, there have been many myths about the future of automotive sales. Major trends like the introduction of new drivetrain technologies, rapidly changing customer expectations, a sheer unlimited choice of sources for information and the digitalization of the sales process have continuously been quoted as the key levers for a revolution in new car sales.

So are the days numbered when auto retailers invest in large glass palaces at the outskirt of major cities, presenting a new car offering that easily covers two football fields? Is haggling for the best price and comparing individual offers from multiple dealerships of the same brand a habit of the past? Will the physical test drive be replaced by some form of revolutionary digital experience in the buyers living room?

We believe the future of sales is already here. Most of the major trends mentioned earlier have evolved for some time, some faster than others. Most automotive brands have announced their strategies towards direct sales models and are amidst a staged rollout over the next few years. Not least because of the fear of losing control of prices to online tools and online comparison platforms offering full price transparency on the click of a button. Tesla showed the direct sales path with many (new) Chinese manufacturers following) to gain more control of the customer relationship and the ability to set actual transaction prices.

Berylls wanted to hear from customers how they experienced ‘future sales’ during their last car purchases. To find a sufficiently large number of them we had to go to Norway, the market with the highest BEV share – and with it the highest share of new brands. Based on their responses we have re-assessed four popular hypotheses. Myths or reality?

FOUR MYTHS ON THE FUTURE OF CAR SALES: HYPOTHESES

The physical retailer is dead.
Elegant city showrooms in prime locations are the secret sauce for sales success.
New car buyers appreciate a multi-channel sales offering
The new market entrants set the new benchmarks in customer experience and convenience in the sales process.

QUESTIONING THE MYTHS: WHAT DO THE BUYERS SAY?

1. The physical retailer is dead.
[Answer: NO]

Where did you first notice the vehicle that you later bought?
by chosen OEM and selected new entrants, in percent

According to the survey, buyers mention the dealer website as well as the physical dealership as the two most important places where they first become aware of a car. Print advertisements as well as TV- and Radio spots are rated weakest. In general, the importance of online and offline touch points in the awareness phase is balanced.

Where did you conduct research on your vehicle before purchasing it?
by chosen OEM and selected new entrants, in percent

In the dedicated search for information, the physical retailer remains the first source of information. The percentage of buyers choosing the retailer as a primary source of information is higher among the old brands compared to the new brands, 37% vs. 31%. However, in this context it is worth mentioning that most new brands do not have classic fully fledged dealerships with a large-scale offer of new cars. Instead, they present a selection of their product line-up in centrally located city showrooms.

Concluding, the widespread myth that the retailer will become irrelevant in the future, cannot be confirmed. The dealer is and remains a major lever for brand and product awareness as well as a primary source of information during the information phase before purchase.

2. Elegant city showrooms in prime locations are the secret sauce for sales success
[Answer: NO]

Where did you first notice the vehicle that you later bought?
by chosen OEM and selected new entrants, in percent

The survey shows, centrally located city showrooms have a comparably weak effect on brand and product awareness across brands. Only 6% of buyers mention the city showroom as the place where they first became aware of a certain car. Nio is the exception to the rule: Nio’s city showroom, the so called “Nio House” does have a higher rating than all other rating factors across brands in terms of brand awareness (13%) as well as source of information (40%). Public billboards, print media and tv/ radio spots are rated equally weak (each 6%). The physical dealership, however, is way ahead of the city showroom when measuring brand awareness (dealer 12% vs. city showroom 6%).

When asked if the respective channels where helpful with regards to the purchasing decision, the city showrooms obtained weak ratings only. Only 62% of buyers rate the city showrooms as relevant. In general, buyers of new brands prefer online touch points over offline touchpoints whereas the opposite is true for buyers of old brands (measuring helpfulness). The physical dealership is among the top five channels rated along helpfulness with nearly no difference between new and old brands (new 69% vs. old 70%).

Concluding, no tendency can be found, whether city showroom in prime locations will in the future replace the large-scale dealerships. Today, city showrooms have a comparably weak effect on brand and product awareness across brands and are on average rated lower than the dealership as source of information. The exception to the rule is Nio; the “Nio House” obtains above average ratings.

3. New car buyers appreciate a multi-channel sales offering
[Answer: YES]

Online / Offline transitions along purchasing process
channel switches yes / no

Most buyers leverage multiple channels in different steps of the purchasing process. 68% of buyers chose to book a test drive online before executing the test drive at a local dealership. Even 72% of buyers chose to start a new car configuration online and finalize it together with a sales advisor at the dealership The transitions queried are used more by buyers of „new“ brands e.g. the transition test drive booked online and conducted stationary is used by 81% of buyers of new brands whereas only 63% of buyers of old brands use online booking of a test drive followed by an on-site test drive. The difference between new and old brand is equally significant in the transition online to offline for finalizing the new car configuration (new 74% vs. old 51%).

Concluding, independent of customer group or brand, offering an online as well as offline channel for information search and configuration is indispensable. Even though buyers of new brands perform more process steps online, a complete waiver of the physical offer appears not feasible. The seamless interface between online and offline is and will remain essential.

4. The new market entrants set the new benchmarks in customer experience and convenience in the sales process.
[Answer: NO]

Efficiency of customer transitions between online and offline sales channels
by transition quality, in percent

During the purchasing process, transitions between the online- and offline channel are more common among new brands and are less prone to error. Still, the processes appear far from perfect. Dealers could instantly allocate a reserved appointment to a name in the dealership for 89% of buyers of new brands, whereas this was only possible for 77% of buyers of old brands. For the remaining 10% of new brand buyers however, no appointment could be allocated at all. The instant loading of a configuration prepared online was easily possible with a configuration code for 91% of buyers for both buyer types, old and new brands.

How do you rate your purchasing experience relative to previous purchases?
by chosen OEM, in percent¹

When looking at the overall quality of the purchasing experience, buyers of new brands rate the quality higher compared to prior car purchases. Nio sets the absolute benchmark with 100% of buyers stating that their purchase experience was clearly better or slightly better compared to 56% for the same rating among old brands. So what are the levers behind the improved buying experience? The observed value for money as well as the overall satisfaction are significantly higher for buyers of products from new entrant. Also the vehicle ordering process were rated better.

Concluding, the purchasing processes of new market entrants are on average of higher quality than those of established, old brands. However, the processes are far from perfect. In the interplay between online and offline buyers mention hick-ups, not surprisingly in line with old brands.

CONCLUSION

The future of car sales is now. The evolution of the car buying process is running at full speed. A review of four myths on the future of car sales along experiences from xEV buyers in Norway has yields interesting insights. Only one hypothesis out of four could be verified.

Therefore, what learning can be drawn for the future sales strategies of automotive OEMs?

A good balance of all channels is a recipe for success.

An extensive digital offering has become a hygiene factor for all brands.
But physical interaction with retailers remains really important for customer satisfaction.

Convenience is key: Easy switches between channels must be possible.

The IT backend must be stable. Interfaces between channels with one customer ID must function well, e.g. saving configurations on one device, opening on another.
The customer front-end must be intuitive and appealing.
Staff in the stores and ‘online’ must be carefully trained to make the multi-channel experience work.

A continuous review of the sales network and formats is required.

City showrooms are an effective channel to create brand awareness for new market entrants – their cost effectiveness is a different question; established OEMs, however, must continue to leverage their existing physical footprint and can plan investments wisely.

Marketing spending on TV & radio lose importance.

Changing importance of channels for product information demand a reallocation of marketing spending. Social Media continue to steal importance from Radio & TV spots.

Authors

Arthur Kipferler

Partner & MD UK

arthur.kipferler@berylls.com

Hongtao Wei

Associate Partner

hongtao.wei@berylls.com

Nils Garrelfs

Project Manager

nils.garrelfs@berylls.com

Samuel Schramm

Consultant

samuel.schramm@berylls.com

Arthur Kipferler

Arthur Kipferler (1963) started his career in 1989 at the Boston Consulting Group, where he consulted for 13 years in the automotive industry. After consulting, Arthur Kipferler held senior management positions at Toyota in Europe and the U.S. From 2013 to 2014, he was global head of the BMW Group’s Future Retail program. Subsequently, he had leading roles in strategy, corporate planning and transformation management at Jaguar Land Rover in Coventry, UK. Arthur Kipferler complements the expertise of the Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors) partner team in the fields of market & customer, technologies, sales, and digitalization, as well as in the development and implementation of corporate, product, and regional strategies.
Mechanical engineering, production engineering, at the Technical University of Munich (TUM); MBA in Strategy, Marketing and Organizational Behavior at INSEAD Business School, France.

Hongtao Wei

Hongtao Wei (1988), Associate Partner, joined Berylls Strategy Advisors in 2015, an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, where he focuses on all issues related to the Chinese automotive market. In addition to Western manufacturers in China, his clients also include Chinese OEMs, investors, provincial governments, and state-owned enterprises.

He has profound expert knowledge in the areas of sales and aftersales. His other areas of expertise include digitalization, connectivity, and turnaround management.

He studied Sinology, Economics and Statistics at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich.

ales of the world’s 100 largest suppliers are up again in 2022 and confirm that the industry is recovering from the impact of the pandemic, semiconductor shortages and other major disruptions. Yet many companies are still struggling to regain pre-Covid levels of profitability due to high material and energy costs, among other factors.

As already noticeable at the end of 2021, the recovery from the pandemic and semiconductor shortages continued in 2022. However, with the war in Ukraine, inflation and the high raw material prices, the industry was further burdened. Despite all these challenges, global vehicle production still increased by 6.6% compared with 2021.

Admittedly, production has not yet returned to pre-pandemic levels. Nonetheless, it was still sufficient in 2022 to allow the combined total annual turnover of the TOP 100 suppliers to break through the €1,000bn barrier, growing 18.3% from €899bn in 2021 to €1,064bn. All but five suppliers recorded sales growth.

In particular, the 11 newcomers to the TOP 100 entered the rankings as a result of year-on-year sales growth of as much as 127%. Profitability was another matter, falling from a TOP 100 average of 6.3% in 2021 to 5.6% last year.

Looking back, four developments dominated 2022:

Renewed increase in turnover across the TOP 100, driven by (among other factors) higher vehicle production and price increases
Lower margins, despite higher sales, due to increased costs which could not be fully passed on to manufacturers
Exceptionally strong sales growth by Korean and Chinese suppliers, driven primarily by the increasing importance of electrified powertrains
Changing composition of the TOP 100 rankings due to the industry dynamic

Vehicle production and inflation drive sales growth

In 2022, several factors contributed to strong turnover growth among the world’s leading suppliers, including6.6% sales growth due to vehicle production increasing to 82 million. Rising inflation affected sales prices, with suppliers trying to pass on increased costs to manufacturers. Yet, a simple extrapolation makes it clear that the TOP 100 suppliers collectively did not quite succeed in this effort. Their total combined turnover should have been €1.071bn in 2022, rather than the actual figure of €1.064bn, assuming the same average level of profitability as in 2021. This estimation includes 6.6% sales growth due to increased vehicle production, 8.9% due to producer price increases that were passed on to OEMs and 2.6% price increases based on labor cost increases.

The difference of €7m was directly reflected in the suppliers’ margins and was mostly due to them being unable to pass on fully to manufacturers increased producer prices for energy, materials and higher wage costs.

In some cases, exchange rates had a significant effect on sales growth. For example, the Brazilian real rose more than 17% against the euro in 2022, partially explaining the year-on-year 48.4% sales growth registered by lochpe-Maxion, the country’s only TOP 100 representative. Iochpe-Maxion’s growth would have been 26.6% without this exchange-rate effect, removing the company from the TOP 100. On average, however, currency movements only boosted sales growth by 0.35% across all 100 companies and is therefore negligible.

Declining margins widen the gap between OEMs and suppliers

On the one hand, inflation and corresponding increases in producer prices ensured higher turnover where suppliers were able to pass on some of these costs to manufacturers. On the other hand, these factors reduced suppliers’ ebit margins where they could not pass on the additional costs. The widening gap in average profitability between the TOP 10 OEMs and the TOP 100 suppliers since the crisis year of 2020 is revealing (see Figure 1). In 2021, the average margin difference was around 1.1 percentage points, but it more than doubled in 2022 to 2.4 percentage points, when the TOP 10 OEMs reported an average margin of 8%, compared with 5.6% for the TOP 100 suppliers. The trend since 2020 is therefore not only continuing, but intensifying.

Historic ebit margins of TOP 10 OEMs vs. TOP 100 Suppliers
(in % of turnover)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Less than half of the TOP 100 suppliers were able to improve their margins in 2022. In some cases, they were less exposed to higher producer prices, while in others they were able to pass on some or all of the price increases to manufacturers. Higher materials and energy costs and supply-chain disruption are expected to continue into 2023, with energy prices in particular substantially increasing suppliers’ costs. In 2022, energy prices shot up as the war in Ukraine and Western sanctions against Russia disrupted gas deliveries, especially from Russia to Europe.

The impact on German suppliers was particularly marked, with producer prices rising on average by 32.9% compared with 2021, mostly driven by an average increase in energy prices of 86.2%. These included year-on-year price rises of 133% for natural gas, 95% for electricity and 40% for oil. The effect was noticeably less severe for suppliers based in other regions and countries; in China, for example, producer prices rose by an average of 4.1%, while in the US they increased by 16.3%.

TOP 100 suppliers’ changes in annual sales growth and margins, 2020-22
(in %)

1 Only companies within the margin and sales development range.

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

In the medium term, energy prices in Germany are expected to remain high. Due to long-standing contracts, German suppliers will have little scope to pass on the increased costs to manufacturers in future, putting them at a disadvantage compared with international competitors.

Chinese and Korean suppliers continue to gain ground

The sales shifts that have been visible in the past few years between Asian, European and US suppliers continued in 2022. Since 2012, the global market shares of Japan, Germany and the US, the world’s three leading supplier countries, have steadily declined. Japan’s share as the largest supplier, measured by total sales, fell eight percentage points from 29.8% in 2012 to 21.8% last year. In the same period, the decline for German and US suppliers was respectively 3.1 and 6.7 percentage points.

These declines are reflected by the changed regional composition of the TOP 100, with 22 fewer companies from Japan, Germany and the US in the 2022 rankings compared with 2012. Companies that have dropped out of the TOP 100 include NHK Spring (Japan) and Cooper Standard (US), with Germany’s representation falling in the past decade from 23 to 17 companies and Japan losing nine suppliers. The companies that have left the TOP 100 variously deliver drive systems for combustion engines, seats or suspension systems.

In contrast, Korean and Chinese suppliers have increased their market shares by 4.2 and 8.3 percentage points since 2012, with the total number of companies from these countries rising by 14. From China, only Weichai Power made it into the TOP 100 in 2012, but in 2022 seven other companies were represented. Meanwhile, there are now 10 companies from Korea in the TOP 100.

Given this trend, it is not surprising that the total average turnover of Chinese suppliers in the TOP 100 has increased by 31.3% annually since 2012. Many of these TOP 100 Chinese and Korean companies, including CATL, Johnson Electric and SK, produce components such as batteries, semiconductors and electric motors.

Chinese suppliers are in a particularly favorable position regarding their profitability. Between 2012 and 2022, the average profitability of Chinese suppliers was 7.8%, significantly above the global industry average of 6.8%. Only US TOP 100 suppliers outshone their Chinese competitors, with an average margin of 8% for the same period. Suppliers from Japan, Korea and Germany could not keep up, with comparatively low average margins of 6.3%, 5.7% and 5.8% respectively. However, Japanese and German suppliers’ margins have increased considerably since 2020, by 2.1 and 4.3 percentage points respectively. Nonetheless, the impact of the pandemic and increased producer prices mean their average profitability is still lower than in 2018.

We expect that over the next few years there will be a further shift in global sales and profitability in favor of Chinese suppliers, largely driven by continuing vehicle electrification and digitalization.

Market share, turnover and profitability of leading supplier countries, 2012-22

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Battery and semiconductor suppliers take the leading positions

The trend in the past few years for battery and semiconductor suppliers to act as the sector’s central drivers of growth and main bulwarks of profitability continued in 2022. TOP 100 semiconductor manufacturers averaged year-on-year sales growth of 44.3% since 2015. Similarly, the TOP 100 battery manufacturers have achieved an average sales growth of 84.1% since 2017. In this context, it is striking that China’s CATL, the world’s leading battery manufacturer, only made the TOP 100 in 2018. Since then, it has increased its annual turnover by 72.7% and is now seventh in the overall rankings. The same trend is evident at major Korean battery manufacturers such as SK, Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution. In 2022 alone, TOP 100 battery manufacturers achieved average profitability of 10.6%, almost double the supplier industry average of 5.6%.

The same pattern can be seen for semiconductor manufacturers. ST Micro, for example, ranked 112 among the world’s largest car suppliers in 2021, with a turnover of €2.5bn. A year later it had climbed to 58 in the 2022 TOP 100, with turnover of €5.675bn – an increase of 127%. Other semiconductor manufacturers such as Texas Instruments, Infineon, NXP Semiconductors, Onsemi and Renesas also recorded increases in turnover of at least 30% between 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, TOP 100 semiconductor manufacturers achieved a notable average margin of 25.9%, helped to a large extent by the continuing worldwide shortage of chips since the start of the pandemic.

By comparison, suppliers specializing in areas such as seats and interiors, energy supply and metal processing have not been able to increase their profitability to nearly the same extent as battery and semiconductor manufacturers since 2020. Overall, batteries and semiconductors are the most profitable product group in the automobile value chain, having overtaken tire suppliers among TOP 100 companies a few years ago.

Turnover and profitability of different supplier sectors, 2012-22

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

The growing importance of batteries and semiconductors in future vehicle design is clear from the changed composition of the TOP 100 compared with a decade ago, reflecting the industry’s increasingly technology-driven dynamic. For example, in the decade since 2012 there have been 12 new entrants to the rankings through the technological shift towards electric, digital vehicles, accounting for 9% of the TOP 100’s total turnover by 2022. This strong performance illustrates the sheer speed at which technological innovation is transforming the car industry, bearing in mind that their total turnover in 2017 was still only about 1%.

In addition, 12 other suppliers from traditional product groups such as glass, brakes and lights have moved into the TOP 100 rankings during the past 10 years. Examples include CIE Automotive (Spain), Fuyao Glass (China) and SL Corporation (Korea). Nine further new entrants include companies resulting from M&A activities such as Aptiv, Adient and Vitesco Technologies.

Consequently, the composition of the TOP 100 has changed significantly in recent years and, due to the expected ongoing technological change in future vehicle generations, it is expected that the pace of change in the supplier industry will continue to intensify.

Changes in the composition of the TOP 100 suppliers, 2012-22

Note: Technology = companies achieving TOP 100 rank in emerging technology areas (e.g. battery, semiconductor); Improvers = companies that have moved up into the TOP 100 through sales growth in established goods (e.g. brakes, glass) and were previously ranked below 100; Transactions = companies achieving TOP 100 rank after an M&A transaction, e.g. after entering into a joint venture.

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

Conclusion: Korean and Chinese suppliers continue their rise, while German suppliers remain under pressure

Car suppliers confronted numerous challenges in 2022. Although the TOP 100 suppliers’ average annual sales growth was robust, many companies’ margins declined, partly due to increased producer prices. In 2023, the growing dominance of Korean and Chinese suppliers is likely to be the sector-defining theme, driven by increasing worldwide sales of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) as the shift to E-mobility continues. Meanwhile, German suppliers appear set to remain under severe pressure, as high energy prices continue to erode their international competitiveness.

We believe the trends that have emerged in the past few years will not only continue, but strengthen. In other words, 2023 is expected to be an eventful year for suppliers in the car industry – perhaps more eventful than many would like.

Authors

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

alexander.timmer@berylls.com

Dr. Jürgen Simon

Associate Partner

juergen.simon@berylls.com

Gereon Heitmann

Senior Consultant

gereon.heitmann@berylls.com

Jakob Rüchardt

Consultant

jakob.ruechardt@berylls.com

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Jürgen Simon

Dr. Juergen Simon (1986) is Associate Partner at Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry. He is an expert in sales and corporate strategies as well as M&A and can look back on many years of consulting experience.
Dr. Juergen Simon has been advising automotive manufacturers and suppliers since 2011 and has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of holistic strategy development, business models and commercial due diligence. He also focuses on market entry strategies and topics related to the „Software Defined Vehicle“.
Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked as senior consultant at the Droege Group, a consulting and investment firm.
As a graduate economist from the University of Hohenheim, he completed his doctorate at the Institute of Management at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) before joining Berylls.

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