The valuation game – What recent automotive transactions and ESG-Criteria tell us about current automotive stock valuations

Munich, September 2022

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The valuation game - What recent automotive transactions and ESG-Criteria tell us about current automotive stock valuations

Munich, September 2022

The Porsche question – value creation by separation?

Our new ETF tracks the top 100 automobility companies with the greatest potential to shape the industry’s future – and the index’s performance offers valuable insights for auto CEOs and CFOs

Volkswagen is targeting a valuation of between €70bn and €75bn for Porsche when the sports car brand is listed as a standalone company on the Frankfurt stock exchange later this month. This is not far off Volkswagen’s current market cap of €90bn, which is not expected to drop materially after the IPO. So why are the two valued so much more highly as separate companies?

The short answer is that Volkswagen’s stock is chronically undervalued. Archrival Toyota has been trading at between two and three times the stock market value of VW for at least the past three years. The contrast with newer OEMs is even starker – Tesla, Li Auto and NIO produce far fewer cars, but on a per vehicle basis, have a market value that is 20 to 90 times higher that of Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes, which are similarly undervalued.

They too have attempted to remedy this situation, Mercedes by spinning off its truck division in 2021 and BMW by launching a €2bn stock buyback program earlier this year, but neither change has resulted in a significant reevaluation of the shares.

The fundamentals of revenue, profitability and shareholder returns alone cannot explain these disparities in valuation. Nor can differences of such magnitude be explained away by putting them down to hype or irrational investment strategies. We believe a broader type of assessment is required, one that takes in investor sentiment and market cap, but also resilience to external shocks such as the war in Ukraine, the ongoing disruption of global supply chains, and the larger transformation of the automotive sector as a whole.

A new automotive index with a different approach to valuation

This is why Berylls, with our partners LeanVal and WisdomTree, has launched the WisdomTree Global Automotive Innovators UCITS ETF (WCAR). The index tracked by WCAR is made up of the 100 most relevant and promising publicly listed automotive companies worldwide, and is the first to cover the entire global automobility ecosystem. As well as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), the index includes suppliers, dealer groups, mobility service providers, and infrastructure companies.

The 100 index members are selected based on a comprehensive set of criteria that looks beyond company financials. It also considers strategy, the value of the network they are part of, and investor sentiment.

The highly automated, twice yearly rebalancing of the index draws on quantitative data analysis, semantic data crawling and core financials. Tracking of the index started in 2019, and there are already indications that the investment approach can yield pertinent insights for automobility CEOs and CFOs seeking to improve their company’s stock market performance.

Lesson #1 – Identify the hidden value of future potential

For an index to be truly representative of an industry as complex as automotive, it needs to protect against the bias inherent in under- and overvalued stocks. The WisdomTree Global Automotive Innovators index does this by assessing a company’s strategy, value network and investor sentiment, as well as its core financials. This means stock selection is based on overall performance, not current market valuations. The index share of any one stock is also capped at maximum 2.5 percent at each rebalancing.

The WisdomTree Global Automotive Innovators index further over-represents the stocks of newcomers that have the potential to be more influential in shaping the automotive future than their present-day valuation suggests. In an industry that has often been re-shaped by hidden champions, we believe this approach makes the index a true indicator of the automotive future.

Lesson #2 – OEMs are not the only winners

In 2021, many OEMs posted record profits. However, on the WisdomTree Global Automotive Innovators index, dealer groups have clearly outperformed manufacturers since at least beginning of 2021, indicating that they were able to pocket a bigger share of the additional earnings that resulted from offering fewer customer discounts amid global production shortages.

Margins are always a function of the relative bargaining power of the different players that make up an industry’s value chain. Although the vehicle shortage will be a temporary phenomenon, OEMs should take cues from the strong performance of their retailers to manage business risks more actively themselves rather than offload them on to their suppliers and business partners. Only thus can OEMs ensure they get the full upside potential too.

Lesson #3 – Japanese automotive companies have the momentum

The pace of recovery from the combined effects of Covid-19 and global supply shortages remains very uneven across the world’s leading automotive manufacturing regions. Japanese auto companies (OEMs and suppliers alike) were relatively late in their recovery but have shown the strongest growth momentum over recent months, and are now attracting significantly higher valuations than German OEMs, for example. It seems that their Japan-centered supply chains prove more resilient in the current crisis than do the European OEMs’ globally more fully integrated supply networks.

Lesson #4 – IPOs aren’t the only way to avoid being hit by a “conglomerate discount”

Part of the reason that German OEMs remain undervalued is that capital markets have come to dislike industrial conglomerates. Both the Daimler truck spin-off and the Porsche IPO can be seen as evidence of OEMs trying to respond to this change in investor expectations.

It is worth noting then, that the index shows that breaking themselves up is not the only way OEMs can avoid paying a conglomerate discount. China’s Geely has succeeded in convincing investors of the advantages of operating through a single holding structure. In other areas of the automobility ecosystem – notably battery cell and chip production and vehicle software development – capital markets actually reward a high degree of integration. This is because these areas will shape the automotive future to a much greater extent than other, more traditional areas of automotive value creation.  

Lesson #5 – ESG will evolve from a screening factor to a key differentiator

Currently, the WisdomTree Berylls LeanVal Global Automotive Innovators index uses ESG criteria only as a screening factor. In part this is because there is not yet a complete and universally accepted set of ESG investment criteria.

However, we’re already seeing a strong correlation between ESG scores and stock performance among the 100 index companies. Our sentiment analysis shows that investors see ESG compliance as an indirect indicator of a company’s willingness to innovate as well as a direct indicator of a company’s ability to mitigate business risks.

 

The influence of ESG criteria shows that many investors are already looking beyond fundamentals to build a more accurate picture of a company’s value and growth potential. Strong ESG commitments are likely to become even more important in the future, and the links investors are drawing with innovation and risk management make clear the massive transformation that has already started in the way automotive stocks are valued.

The partnership

WisdomTree Investments, Inc. (WisdomTree) is an ETF and ETP sponsor and asset manager headquartered in New York. WisdomTree offers products covering equity, commodity, fixed income, leveraged and inverse, currency, cryptocurrency and alternative strategies. WisdomTree currently has approximately $77.8 billion in assets under management globally. 

LeanVal Investments (LeanVal) was founded in 1991. The team combines extensive industry and academic experience and employs a data-driven approach to fundamental research and the design of equity strategies.

Berylls Strategy Advisors GmbH (Berylls) was founded more than a decade ago and today, with almost 200 colleagues, brings a clear focus to the trends shaping the future of the automobility industry. Berylls’ dedicated automotive industry expertise allows them to form bottom-up views on the universe of companies poised to benefit from automobility megatrends.

Authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

CEO Berylls Group

Malte Broxtermann

Associate Partner

Jens Garrelfs

Associate Partner

Björn Simon

Consultant

Dr. Jan Burgard

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) is CEO of Berylls Group, an international group of companies providing professional services to the automotive industry.

His responsibilities include accelerating the transformation of luxury and premium OEMs, with a particular focus on digitalization, big data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Dr. Jan Burgard is also responsible for the implementation of digital products at Berylls and is a proven expert for the Chinese market.

Dr. Jan Burgard started his career at the investment bank MAN GROUP in New York. He developed a passion for the automotive industry during stopovers at an American consultancy and as manager at a German premium manufacturer. In October 2011, he became a founding partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors. The top management consultancy was the origin of today’s Group and continues to be the professional nucleus of the Group.

After studying business administration and economics, he earned his doctorate with a thesis on virtual product development in the automotive industry.

Malte Broxtermann

Malte is an expert in the development and implementation of automotive digitization strategies.

He focuses on helping clients scale (generative) artificial intelligence to improve their bottom line across the entire automotive value chain. His primary customers are automotive manufacturers and their suppliers, especially those active in the Software-Defined-Vehicle space.

Before his time at Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), he advised leading North American utility companies. Prior to that, he saved lives as emergency medical technician. Malte holds master’s degrees in economics from Maastricht University and Queen’s University in Canada.

Top 100-Zuliefererstudie 2022 – Die Branche kommt nicht zur Ruhe

München, September 2022

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Top 100 Zuliefererstudie 2022 - Die Branche kommt nicht zur Ruhe

München, September 2022
H

albleitermangel, Rohstoffpreise, Pandemie und Lockdown sind Schlagworte, die uns in den letzten zwei Jahren in Mark und Bein übergegangen und aus unserem Wortschatz – leider – nicht mehr wegzudenken sind.

Dies gilt insbesondere für die Automobilindustrie, welche so stark wie kaum
eine andere Industrie von den jüngsten Krisen betroffen war. Das ist das Hauptthema im Artikel „Halbleiter, Rohstoffe und Pandemie – die Automobilzulieferer kommen nicht zur Ruhe“ von Dr. Alexander Timmer, Dr. Jürgen Simon und Lukas Kirchhefer (Seite 17).
Seit der Finanzkrise galt die Automobilindustrie als sicherer Hafen und war ein Synonym für kontinuierliches Wachstum. Umsatzwachstum und Margen im hohen einstelligen Prozentbereich waren normal und galten als Industriestandard. Fakt ist, dass die Zeiten der Planbarkeit vorerst vorbei sind. Zur Wahrheit gehört aber auch, dass sich Hersteller und Zulieferer weltweit schneller von der Krise erholt haben als noch vor zwei Jahren gedacht.

Unsere Analyse der weltweit 100 größten Zulieferer zeigt, dass Gewinne und Umsätze wieder auf dem Vorkrisenniveau aus 2019 liegen. Einestolze Leistung, wenn wir uns in Erinnerung rufen, dass die Umsätze noch vor zwei Jahren infolge der Pandemie um 14 % eingebrochen und die Gewinne auf ein historisches
Tief von 3 % gesunken waren. „Trotz der Aufs und Abs im Jahr 2021 mit Coronakrise im Frühjahr und Chipmangel im Herbst sind die Ergebnisse in Summe positiver ausgefallen, als wir das erwartet hatten“, bewertet mein Kollege Dr. Jan Dannenberg in unserem Doppelinterview (Seite 11) die
jüngste wirtschaftliche Erholung. Zu den klaren Profiteuren gehören die Halbleiterhersteller, mit rekordverdächtigen Margen von bis zu 27 %.

Dies belegt eindrucksvoll: Totgesagte leben länger. Die öffentliche Debatte zur
Zukunftsfähigkeit der Automobilindustrie war in den letzten Jahren maßgeblich geprägt durch fehlende Nachhaltigkeit der Geschäftsmodelle und nicht
zeitgemäße Produkte. Zulieferer wie Hersteller haben jedoch die Zeit in der
Krise wirkungsvoll genutzt und ihre Hausaufgaben gemacht. So riefen sie Kostensenkungsprogramme ins Leben und investierten in die Widerstandsfähigkeit der Lieferketten. Hier ist aber nur in seltenen Fällen eine Rückverlagerung das Mittel der Wahl. Im Fokus steht neben dem Aufbau von Beständen und Alternativlieferanten auch die digitale Überwachung der Lieferketten. Das beschreibt mein Kollege Ralf Walker im Artikel „Pandemie, Chipmangel und politische Unruhen – kommt jetzt die Rohstoffkrise?“ (Seite 5), der in Zusammenarbeit mit Peter Trögel, Christian Grimmelt und Eren Duygun entstanden ist.

Die Mehrzahl der deutschen Zulieferer haben ihre Strategien überarbeitet, um
die Abhängigkeit vom Verbrennungsmotor sukzessive zu reduzieren. Gleiches
gilt für die Hersteller, die ihre Portfolios schneller und konsequenter auf batterieelektrische Fahrzeuge umstellen. Wir können konstatieren, dass sich die Automobilindustrie nicht nur einen Ruf als versierter Krisenmanager, sondern auch als treibende Kraft für den Umstieg auf die Elektromobilität erarbeitet hat. Weiter so!

Der Rückblick auf den Umgang mit den Herausforderungen der letzten Jahre
sollte uns zuversichtlich stimmen, dass wir auch die Folgen des Ukraine-Krieges
und der chinesischen No-Covid-Strategie meistern werden. Dennoch: „Wir sind
nicht an dem Punkt, wo sich Lösungen für die vielfältigen Probleme abzeichnen.
Da sind wir noch lange nicht durch.“, wie es Jan Dannenberg abschließend zusammenfasst. Zumal der Wettbewerb aus China nicht schläft!

Ich wünsche Ihnen eine spannende Lektüre,

MicrosoftTeams-image (40)
Berylls Insight
Top 100-Zuliefererstudie 2022
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Autoren
Dr. Jan Dannenberg

Executive Partner

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

Dr. Jürgen Simon

Associate Partner

Dr. Jan Dannenberg

Dr. Jan Dannenberg (1962) ist seit 1990 Berater der Automobilindustrie und seit Mai 2011 Gründungspartner bei Berylls Strategy Advisors. Bis zum Frühjahr 2011 war er acht Jahre international als Partner – davon fünf Jahre als Associate Partner – für Mercer Management Consulting und Oliver Wyman tätig. Er ist ausgewiesener Spezialist für Innovationen und Markenmanagement in der Automobilindustrie und berät im Schwerpunkt Zulieferer und Investoren zu Strategie, Mergers & Acquisitions und Performance Improvement. Zudem ist er Geschäftsführer von Berylls Equity Partners, eine auf Mobilitätsunternehmen spezialisierte Beteiligungsgesellschaft.

Bachelor of Arts in Volkswirtschaftslehre von der Stanford University, Studium der Betriebswirtschaftslehre und Promotion an der Universität Bamberg.

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) ist seit Mai 2021 als Partner bei Berylls by AlixPartners (ehemals Berylls Strategy Advisors) tätig, einer internationalen und auf die Automobilitätsindustrie spezialisierten Strategieberatung. Er ist Experte für Markteintritts- und Wachstumsstrategien, M&A und kann auf eine langjährige Erfahrung im Operations-Umfeld zurückschauen. Dr. Alexander Timmer berät seit 2012 Automobilhersteller und -zulieferer im globalen Kontext. Er verfügt über ein fundiertes Expertenwissen in den Bereichen Portfolioplanung, Entwicklung und Produktion. Zu seinen weiteren fachlichen Schwerpunkten zählen unter anderem Digitalisierung und der Themenkomplex rund um die Elektromobilität.
Vor seinem Einstieg bei Berylls Strategy Advisors war er unter anderem für Booz & Company und PwC Strategy& als Mitglied der Geschäftsführung in Nordamerika, Asien und Europa tätig.
Im Anschluss an sein Maschinenbaustudium an der RWTH Aachen und der Chalmers University in Göteborg promovierte er im Bereich der Fertigungstechnologien am Werkzeugmaschinenlabor der RWTH Aachen.

Dr. Jürgen Simon

Dr. Jürgen Simon (1986) ist als Associate Partner bei Berylls by AlixPartners (ehemals Berylls Strategy Advisors) tätig, einer internationalen und auf die Automobilitätsindustrie spezialisierten Strategieberatung. Er ist Experte für Vertriebs- und Unternehmensstrategien sowie M&A und kann auf eine langjährige Beratungserfahrung zurückschauen. Er berät seit 2011 Automobilhersteller und -zulieferer und verfügt über fundiertes Expertenwissen in den Bereichen ganzheitliche Strategieentwicklung, Geschäftsmodelle und Commercial Due Diligence. Weitere Schwerpunkte liegen in Markteintrittsstrategien sowie Themen rund um das „Software Defined Vehicle“. Als diplomierter Ökonom der Universität Hohenheim hat er vor seinem Einstieg bei Berylls am Institut für Unternehmensführung des Karlsruher Instituts für Technologie (KIT) promoviert.

How Vehicle-as-a-Service is accelerating BEV sales in Europe

Munich, September 2022

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How Vehicle-as-a-Service is accelerating BEV sales in Europe

Munich, September 2022
T

he intensifying trend from vehicle ownership to usership has already been proven by our recent customer survey. VaaS providers are now echoing our results: The demand for flexible and digital VaaS products is increasing and fuels BEV sales in Europe.

In January 2022, we published a survey asking a representative set of customers on their future mobility needs. The results were clear: Customers increasingly demand flexible VaaS products, they will choose fully digital online journeys more often and they are willing to try new brands and drivetrains. Hence, VaaS also drives digitalization in vehicle sales and contributes to BEV adoption.

To complement the customer perspective, we now asked some of the leading providers how they perceive the trend towards VaaS, how they assess its implications and how they plan to act upon it. In our latest study we interviewed:

  • Benedikt Schell, CEO, Mercedes-Benz Bank
MBB_logo_64x2_s
  • Enrico Rossini, Head of Fleet and New Mobilities, Mobilize Financial Services
Mobilize Financial Services logo
  • Dirk Adelmann, CEO, smart Europe

  • René Müller, Head of B2B Sales, smart Europe
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  • René Müller, Head of B2B Sales, smart Europe
  • Dr. Christian Dahlheim, CEO, Volkswagen Financial Services
image001
  • Magnus Fredin, SVP Global Online Business, Volvo Cars
Volvo_Iron mark_b_Original
  • Daniel Garnitz, CEO, Faaren
faaren-group-logo-black
  • Niels Reimann, CPO, Fleetpool
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  • Matthias Albert, CEO, ViveLaCar
ViveLaCar-Logo_1

By combining the customer survey with the perspectives of top executives in the industry, Berylls created the first 360 degree view on the Vehicle-as-a-Service market in Europe.

Can’t wait to read more? Download the insight now or visit our VaaS Clusterpage!

Berylls Insight
How Vehicle-as-a-service is accelerating BEV sales in Europe
DOWNLOAD
Authors
Christopher Ley

Associate Partner

Florian Tauschek

Associate Partner

Tobias Detzler

Senior Consultant

  • Benedikt Schell, CEO, Mercedes-Benz Bank
  • Enrico Rossini, Head of Fleet and New Mobilities, Mobilize Financial Services
  • Dirk Adelmann, CEO, smart Europe
  • René Müller, Head of B2B Sales, smart Europe
  • Dr. Christian Dahlheim, CEO, Volkswagen Financial Services
  • Magnus Fredin, SVP Global Online Business, Volvo Cars
  • Daniel Garnitz, CEO, Faaren
  • Niels Reimann, CPO, Fleetpool
  • Matthias Albert, CEO, ViveLaCar

By combining the customer survey with the perspectives of top executives in the industry, Berylls created the first 360 degree view on the Vehicle-as-a-Service market in Europe.

Can’t wait to read more? Download the insight now or visit our VaaS Clusterpage!

Christopher Ley

Christopher Ley joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors) in October 2021 as Partner. He has over 14 years of top management consulting experience with focus on new business models and market expansions within the automotive & mobility industry. He is an expert around Vehicle-as-a-Service, comprising vehicle finance & leasing, fleet management and mobility services. Christopher Ley is advising OEMs, Captives, Financial Services Companies, PE & VC Investors, Leasing & Rental Companies, Fleet Managers and Mobility Startups around the transformation from one-time sales towards use-based multi-cycle business models on a global level.

Prior to joining Berylls, Christopher Ley has been working for other international management consulting firms, amongst others Monitor Deloitte and Alvarez & Marsal. He holds a diploma degree in business administration from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz and an MBA from Colorado State University.

Florian Tauschek

Florian Tauschek has 8 years of experience in strategy consulting. He focuses on business & sales model strategies for flexible Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) offers.

He is an expert in topics such as customer & vehicle lifetime value optimization, the transformation of the underlying automotive sales model from one-time asset sales towards multicycle models generating recurring revenues as well as market entry strategies for various VaaS products such as operating lease or subscriptions. Furthermore he is the author of several market leading studies around VaaS.

He holds a Master of Science degree in management from HHL – Leipzig Graduate School of Management.

E-MOBILITY-RANKING

Munich, May 2024

Featured Insights

E-MOBILITY-RANKING

Munich, May 2024

Our new e-mobility ranking analyses the progress of e-mobility in 35 countries worldwide and makes the individual nations comparable. The experts led by Berylls partner Dr. Alexander Timmer looked at where the share of BEVs on the road can contribute to achieving climate targets and what development the charging infrastructure has taken over the last years from 2019 to 2023.

This year again, countries in Scandinavia, Western Europe and China are well on their way, with at least one out of six new registered cars being fully electric, even if progression of BEV sales in key markets like Germany, the UK or China last year was disappointing compared to last year. On the other hand, Eastern and Southern Europe, as well as the US, are still lagging behind.

For Germany, the analysis shows a contrasted picture. Dr. Alexander Timmer: “With a stagnation of BEV sales in 2023 compared to the previous year, Germany is losing 4 places in the ranking, stepping out from the TOP-10 this year. However, its charging infrastructure continues to progress at a fast pace, thanks to a dynamic charging market, especially for ultra-fast charging, and effective supporting state programs. Thus, Germany remains one of the biggest charging networks in Europe, second only to the Netherlands, and (narrowly) ahead of France, and can claim, this year again, the title for the largest European ultra-fast charging network.”

Our experts
Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

Valentin Froh

Project Manager

Dennis Koschmieder

Consultant

TOP XEV COUNTRIES

Our Berylls TOP XEV country table shows key electromobility metrics for more than 30 countries worldwide since 2019. You can select the desired year using the drag-down "Years" menu and order the columns individually in ascending or descending order.

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Rank
Y-O-Y Change
Country
Region
New vehicle sales
Vehicle Fleet
Charging infrastructure
Ratio
BEV
PHEV
Total xEV
BEV
PHEV
Total xEV
ALL CHARGERS
ULTRA-FAST CHARGERS
INFRASTRUCTURE COVERAGE
xEV/CHARGER
BEV/FAST CHARGER
SHARE OF NEW SALES
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
SHARE OF NEW SALES
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
SHARE OF NEW SALES
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
SHARE OF FLEET
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
SHARE OF FLEET
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
SHARE OF FLEET
(in %)
Y-O-Y
CHANGE
(in % points)
NUMBER OF CHARGERS
Y-O-Y CHANGE
(in %)
SHARE OF FAST CHARGERS
(in %)
NUMBER OF CHARGERS
Y-O-Y CHANGE
(in %)
NUMBER OF CHARGERS FOR 10.000 INHABITANTS
AREA COVERED BY ONE FAST CHARGER
NUMBER OF xEV PER CHARGER
Y-O-Y CHANGE
(in %)
NUMBER OF BEV PER FAST CHARGER
Y-O-Y CHANGE
(in %)
1
0
NORWAY
EUROPE
82
3.1
8
-1.2
90
1.8
23.0
2.8
6.2
-0.2
29.1
2.6
24.624
19
32
6.197
82
45
41
37
-6
91
-17
2
0
ICELAND
EUROPE
50
16.7
10
-12.5
60
4.2
7.9
2.9
7.0
0.5
15.0
3.3
1.611
70
14
163
220
41
438
27
-23
102
-29
3
0
SWEDEN
EUROPE
39
5.7
21
-2.1
60
3.7
5.9
1.9
5.5
0.7
11.3
2.6
37.166
53
13
3.682
136
35
87
15
-15
62
-26
4
1
DENMARK
EUROPE
36
15.5
10
-7.8
46
7.7
7.1
3.1
4.3
0.6
11.4
3.7
14.368
56
22
1.293
56
24
13
22
-5
63
-22
5
3
FINLAND
EUROPE
34
16.0
21
0.9
54
16.8
3.0
1.4
4.7
0.9
7.7
2.3
12.101
31
23
1.859
126
22
108
18
9
30
2
6
-2
NETHERLANDS
EUROPE
31
7.3
13
1.7
44
9.0
4.8
1.1
2.9
1.0
7.8
2.2
145.162
27
3
2.758
38
81
8
5
10
101
-6
7
-1
CHINA
ASIA
24
3.0
12
5.0
36
8.0
4.5
1.3
1.4
0.6
6.0
1.9
2.725.000
52
44
N/A
-/-
19
8
7
3
13
-6
8
5
LUXEMBOURG
EUROPE
22
7.3
10
0.6
32
7.9
5.7
2.6
3.8
1.0
9.5
3.5
2.323
-2
8
156
68
35
14
19
64
143
12
9
-2
SWITZERLAND
EUROPE
21
3.1
9
1.1
30
4.2
3.2
0.9
1.7
0.3
4.9
1.2
14.235
31
13
1.224
46
16
21
17
3
83
-4
10
1
AUSTRIA
EUROPE
20
4.0
7
0.9
27
4.9
3.0
0.9
1.1
0.4
4.1
1.2
18.637
7
17
2.032
107
20
26
11
34
50
-10
11
6
BELGIUM
EUROPE
20
9.3
21
4.9
41
14.2
2.3
1.1
4.4
1.3
6.7
2.4
44.363
61
5
1.664
130
38
13
9
-1
60
-13
12
2
IRELAND
EUROPE
19
3.7
8
1.2
27
4.9
2.4
0.8
1.5
0.4
3.9
1.3
2.825
26
16
213
111
6
148
33
19
123
-10
13
-4
GERMANY
EUROPE
18
0.6
6
-7.5
25
-6.8
2.9
0.8
1.9
0.1
4.7
0.9
120.625
40
17
16.075
103
14
17
19
-12
67
-14
14
2
PORTUGAL
EUROPE
18
6.8
14
3.3
32
10.2
1.8
0.6
1.6
0.6
3.4
1.2
7.306
12
23
280
-18
7
55
27
44
65
17
15
-3
MALTA
EUROPE
17
2.0
13
-6.1
31
-4.1
1.3
0.5
1.2
0.3
2.6
0.8
101
6%
0
N/A
-/-
2
N/A
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
16
-1
FRANCE
EUROPE
17
3.5
9
0.9
26
4.4
2.3
0.8
1.5
0.4
3.8
1.2
119.255
43
14
9.100
183
18
34
12
4
57
-39
17
-7
UNITED KINGDOM
EUROPE
17
-0.0
7
1.1
24
1.1
2.7
0.8
1.7
0.5
4.4
1.3
72.923
40
15
4.616
200
11
22
20
2
85
-13
18
0
ROMANIA
EUROPE
11
1.6
2
-0.7
13
1.0
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
2.754
86
25
219
387
1
332
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
19
4
SLOVENIA
EUROPE
9
3.9
2
0.9
11
4.8
0.9
0.3
0.2
0.1
1.2
0.4
1.608
1
13
85
21
8
96
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
20
0
LATVIA
EUROPE
9
2.5
2
0.1
11
2.6
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.8
0.2
535
7
41
56
229
3
283
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
21
1
LITHUANIA
EUROPE
7
2.2
3
0.3
10
2.4
0.7
0.2
0.4
0.1
1.1
0.4
1.313
203
18
81
298
5
267
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
22
-1
USA
AMERICA
7
1.4
2
0.4
9
1.9
1.3
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.7
0.5
175.547
22
22
25.671
42
5
214
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
23
-4
KOREA
ASIA
7
-0.9
1
-0.2
7
-1.1
1.9
0.5
0.3
0.0
2.2
0.5
305.309
49
11
N/A
-/-
59
3
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
24
5
ESTONIA
EUROPE
6
2.9
2
0.5
9
3.4
0.5
0.1
0.1
-0.0
0.6
0.1
683
148
32
109
419
5
195
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
25
0
SPAIN
EUROPE
5
1.7
7
0.7
12
2.4
0.6
0.2
0.7
0.3
1.3
0.5
29.301
62
19
1.525
118
6
88
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
26
-2
HUNGARY
EUROPE
5
1.2
5
0.8
11
1.9
1.1
0.4
0.5
0.1
1.5
0.5
3.319
-0
11
175
157
3
240
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
27
1
CYPRUS
EUROPE
5
1.9
3
1.5
9
3.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.3
329
391
6
7
-/-
4
440
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
28
-1
BULGARIA
EUROPE
5
1.3
1
0.4
6
1.8
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.1
1.624
57
24
159
127
2
278
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
29
3
GREECE
EUROPE
5
2.1
7
1.3
11
3.4
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.2
3.166
222
6
52
247
3
702
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
30
-4
ITALY
EUROPE
4
0.5
4
-0.6
9
-0.1
0.6
0.2
0.6
0.2
1.2
0.4
41.114
34
14
2.415
83
7
52
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
31
0
POLAND
EUROPE
4
0.9
3
0.5
6
1.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.1
6.102
80
24
297
170
2
217
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
32
1
CZECHIA
EUROPE
3
1.0
2
0.5
5
1.5
0.3
0.1
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.2
4.664
20
27
261
67
4
62
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
33
-3
CROATIA
EUROPE
3
-0.3
2
-0.2
5
-0.5
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.1
1.074
-4
34
109
33
3
153
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
34
0
SLOVAKIA
EUROPE
3
0.9
3
1.4
6
2.3
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
1.808
22
35
181
89
3
76
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
35
0
JAPAN
ASIA
2
0.7
1
0.2
4
0.9
0.3
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.1
48.008
12
20
N/A
-/-
4
39
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
-/-
EUROPE
EUROPE
16
1.8
8
-1.3
23
0.5
2.1
0.6
1.4
0.3
3.5
0.9
737.019
38
13
57.043
110
14
48
14
-1
64
-19
-/-
-/-
CALIFORNIA
AMERICA
21
5.3
4
0.8
25
6.1
4.0
1.3
1.4
0.2
5.4
1.5
49.180
13
21
N/A
-/-
13
40
31
24
109
21

BEV – Battery Electric Vehicle, PHEV – Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle, xEV = BEV + PHEV, Fast Charger (≥50 kW), Ultra Fast Charger (≥150 kW), Europe = EU countries + EFTA countries + United Kingdom

A backseat for drivers: Autonomous driving will be the backbone of shared urban mobility in Europe

Munich, October 2022

Featured Insights

A backseat for drivers: Autonomous driving will be the backbone of shared urban mobility in Europe

Munich, October 2022

Introduction

Autonomous driving (AD) has long been seen as the savior of shared mobility, finally making ride hailing and ride pooling services profitable by eliminating the cost of paying the driver. Pilot projects are underway across the globe, however the key question remains: when will AD technology, regulation and public acceptance align and reach the point where driverless vehicles start to transform the personal mobility landscape?

To answer this question and quantify the scale of the opportunity for AD to push forward the use of shared mobility services in Europe, we built the Berylls Mobility Model to assess the impact of key drivers including technology, political will and regulatory readiness on driverless urban mobility in 544 European cities across 35 countries.

The results of our extensive modeling show a decisive shift toward self-driving ride hailing and ride pooling services over the next decade. Our key findings include:

  • AD vehicles will account for 50% of the distance travelled with ride sharing services in European cities by 2035
  • The European urban mobility market will grow by 56% to €802bn by 2035, but the market share of private cars will shrink to 60%, from 67% now
  • By the end of 2035, we expect there will be between 500,000 and 1.2 million AD cars used for ride hailing and pooling
Berylls Insight
A backseat for drivers: Autonomous driving will be the backbone of shared urban mobility in Europe
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Authors
DR. MATTHIAS KEMPF

Partner

Yue Zhou

Senior Consultant

Yakop Tolunay

Consultant

Niklas Rehmert

Venture Builder

Dr. Matthias Kempf

Dr. Matthias Kempf (1974) was one of the founding partners of Berylls Strategy Advisors in August 2011. He began his career with Mercer Management Consulting in Munich, Germany, in 2000. After earning his doctorate degree and further consulting work at Oliver Wyman (formerly Mercer Management Consulting), he joined the management of Hilti Germany in 2008. At Berylls, his area of expertise is new mobility services and traffic concepts. In addition, he is an expert in developing and implementing new digital business models, and in the digitalization of sales and after sales.

Industrial engineering and management studies at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany, doctorate degree at Ludwig Maximilian University, Munich, Germany.

Quo Vadis, Chinese OEMs in Europe? Part 2

Munich, August 2022

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Quo Vadis, Chinese OEMs in Europe? Part 2

Munich, August 2022
I

s there a shortcut for Chinese OEMs in Europe?The second in Berylls’ short series on established and new Chinese OEMs in Europe focuses on their performance and the best market entry strategies.

Executive summary

  • With increasing electric vehicle (EV) adoption in Europe, Chinese OEMs see a fresh opportunity to re-enter Europe and even target the premium segment
  • The timing seems right because their products are more mature, while Chinese EV players have a more customer-centric mindset than previously and are open to new sales models
  • However, to succeed in Europe, Chinese OEMs will have to adapt their way of working, plan and implement rigorously, and penetrate markets rapidly
  • Lastly, Chinese OEMs must prioritize investments in building a sustainable, long-lasting brand reputation based on a highly professionalized ecosystem with great products at the core
Authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

Berylls Group CEO

Willy Wang

Managing Director China

Hongtao Wei

Associate Partner

Soleiman Mansouri

Associate Partner

Lois Yang

Lead Analyst

A window of opportunity

Boosted by government subsidies and emissions regulations, the EV market in Europe is now highly attractive, especially in western Europe. However, major multinational carmakers have not yet fully captured the rapidly expanding EV market, which means Chinese OEMs sense a great business opportunity. Since 2020, Chinese OEMs have successively launched EVs in Europe, re-entering a market where they first tried their luck more than a decade ago.

To a certain degree, there was a blank space in the electric vehicle market when Tesla first came to Europe in 2008. Faced with few competitive pressures, Tesla had the advantage of gradually being able to establish a firm foothold there. Today, although a gap in the market still exists, it is getting smaller. Traditional European players such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Volkswagen are introducing more and more EVs, while other specialist EV manufacturers such as the U.S. companies Lucid and Rivian are also targeting the European market.  

Chinese OEMs therefore have only a narrow time window to exploit Europe’s remaining, rapidly closing EV market space. The challenges of re-entering Europe are not so different from those they experienced in the past and whether they succeed this time principally depends on whether they can leverage their core strength, which is customer-centricity. In plain terms, it depends on whether they can really understand Europe’s kaleidoscope of national markets and customers in all their diversity. As a starting point, Chinese OEMs need to consider why their first foray into Europe ended in failure.

Why have Chinese carmakers failed in Europe in the past?

History and ideology

Compared with emerging markets in Asia, Africa and southeast Asia, most European markets are highly mature, with their own automotive cultures and tastes. Traditional OEMs such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW have dominated these markets for a long time and still do so today in conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. With certain exceptions, even well-known Asian brands such as Toyota and Honda have only limited influence in some western European markets.

The current success of Chinese-European brands like MG and Polestar suggests that “being born” in Europe brings higher acceptance by European customers. This is partly because purely Chinese brands are still young and naturally lack a heritage, both at home and abroad. In addition, recent political developments have increased the resistance of some European customers to Chinese products.

Different customer groups, different preferences

The preferences and demands of European customers are very different from their Chinese counterparts, but this is not a problem that can be solved by conducting a few simple market surveys. For instance, Chinese OEMs pay great attention to product features such as connectivity and infotainment functions to attract young Chinese customers. In Europe, the same strategy needs to be sensitive to different consumer priorities. While connectivity and infotainment influence European customers’ purchasing behavior, they are more attracted by “traditional virtues” such as build quality, material selection and driving performance. In this context, new hi-tech features are generally regarded as bonus items. In fact, Chinese OEMs actually often neglect European customers understanding. As they are quite successful in their home market, they often think that the same ingredients for success in China can be directly applied in Europe, especially when it comes to EVs. A fatal error!

Even when buying EVs, European customers favor brands with a strong reputation for high reliability and a wide network coverage for sales, aftersales and electric charging. Unfortunately, no Chinese brand has so far managed to provide the same level of product and service quality as “local” brands such as BMW and Mercedes-Benz.

Poor brand reputation
In the past, multiple poor performances in crash tests have made Chinese brands seem embarrassingly bad. Between 2005 and 2009, attempts by the Chinese Landwind and Zhonghua brands to launch in Europe were both stalled by dismal crash-test results. In 2005, the Chinese SUV Jiangling Landwind failed the German ADAC automobile club’s crash test shortly after being premiered at the Frankfurt IAA Motor Show. In similar fashion, the Zhonghua BS6 failed the Euro NCAP crash test. These PR disasters left European consumers with the stereotype that the quality of Chinese cars was highly questionable.

Can Chinese carmakers succeed where they previously failed?

The difference this time is that Chinese OEMs’ products have matured to the point where they are at least seen by European customers as generally competitive in the “traditional” sales virtues of build quality, use of high-grade materials and driving performance. Meanwhile, Chinese vehicles now also boast highly advanced new “bonus” features for European purchasers such as world-class connectivity and autonomous driving. Lastly, Chinese OEMs are used to building their products in a customer-centric way, with features such as seamless integration of mobile phone apps.

However, even with these core competencies, Chinese OEMs are not guaranteed an easy ride with rapid returns now that they are re-entering the European market. In their favor, most Chinese OEMs are action oriented and advocate „learning by doing“ and “agile” progression. But they must also adjust their mindset to complex European automotive markets that require rigorous and meticulous planning.  

Chinese OEMs should follow the example of the best European competitors and lay out a structured, holistic plan with detailed implementation processes that are based on European customer journeys. Furthermore, they should be prepared for long-term investments to gain and retain the trust of European customers in their products. This will require Chinese OEMs to establish a strong ecosystem in Europe that is adapted for short-term, medium-term and long-term strategies in all areas of their business, including pillar brands, product portfolios, pricing, distribution networks and the digital domain.

Short-term strategy: Brand building and competitive pricing

These are the critical next steps toward success in Europe. Chinese OEMs must ensure that their models are more attractively priced than mainstream European competitors to make up for their lack of brand reputation. Competitive pricing can yield some instant wins when combined with large-scale PR and communications campaigns for models that are extremely good value for money compared with similar vehicles made by competitors. Communications should focus specifically on performance marketing in line with the brand’s positioning during the individual journeys of potential customers, rather than adopting a broader “fishnet” approach through TV spots, billboard advertisements and other media channels.

Medium-term strategy: Product portfolio and network

It is very important for Chinese OEMs to choose a suitable product portfolio and an appropriate sales and aftersales network to gain entry to European markets, following thorough homework on individual market trends and tastes. In this context, it is worth noting that Chinese customers are not necessarily the same as their counterparts in Europe. To give one obvious example, while the SUV is the most popular model of vehicle in China, this is not universally true across European markets.

With regard to sales and aftersales networks, we generally see three distribution channels for China’s EV manufacturers to enter Europe. Firstly, they can cooperate with large local dealers who are interested in selling their vehicles. We believe that a large majority of dealers will be willing to work with Chinese OEMs, given the current trend toward the agent model, which is increasing the margin pressure on most dealers.  

Alternatively, Chinese OEMs can follow Tesla’s example and try to set up their own networks in Europe. This might seem the most desirable route in terms of retail steering and customer experience control. However, doubts remain about whether Chinese OEMs have the financial strength to set up a suitably extensive European network, especially if they are start-ups. Given their lack of capital, we believe it is more likely that Chinese players will adopt a combination of direct sales and franchise dealerships.

Lastly, Chinese OEMs should consider working with local mobility providers, whether they are rental, carsharing or subscription players, to get their vehicles visibly onto European streets, where they can generate word of mouth endorsements most effectively. Chinese players should focus in particular on the subscription model, where shorter contract periods and lower monthly fees can help overcome the resistance of European customers to Chinese cars.  

Long-term strategy: Creating a sustainable, positive brand reputation

A functioning ecosystem with clear structures and the right priorities are key challenges, but are still merely prerequisites for a successful market entry in Europe. Creating long-lasting brand recognition and growth for Chinese EVs will take both time and a willingness to experiment.

The leading Chinese EV manufacturer NIO is a good example. To its credit, NIO has invested a lot of effort in its ecosystem set-up in Europe, especially around user communities, user experience and other fields that are “beyond the vehicle.” Using Norway as its main testing ground, NIO aims to build an ecosystem with cars at its core that also includes digital services and lifestyle offerings, such as community building events. Yet NIO still only sold around 200 cars in Europe in 2021, despite all these innovations. Further refinement and analysis of its fledgling ecosystem will be required to establish how or even whether these services can meet the demands of European customers.  

Some observers, especially on the Chinese side, argue that such a detailed and rigorous approach is not necessary because there is one hi-tech product – the mobile phone – where Chinese manufacturers have already proved that they can make a rapid, successful market entry in Europe. A few years ago, Chinese mobile phones were almost unknown in Europe, but today the market is full of Chinese brands such as Huawei, Xiaomi and Oppo.

 

However, there are three significant differences between mobile phones and cars. Firstly, unlike cars, mobile phones can be changed frequently at a relatively low price. Secondly, the success of Chinese phones in Europe is based on the budget segment and is concentrated in a few countries. Consider the example of Xiaomi. In the second quarter of 2021, Xiaomi shipped 12.7 million units to Europe, making it the region’s single largest mobile phone supplier, ahead of Samsung (12 million) and Apple (9.6 million). Yet Xiaomi’s success is driven mainly by sales in Russia and the rest of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), whose huge mobile phone market is dominated by budget buyers. This fact largely explains why the average price of a Xiaomi phone in Europe was around $164, compared with $250 for a Samsung phone and $808 for an Apple one. 

Thirdly, 50 percent of mobile phones in Europe are sold through network operators such as Vodafone and Telefónica, which also like to tweak the pricing of hardware devices with special offers and promotions. In summary, one should not assume from the success of Chinese mobile phone players in Europe that it is easily replicable in the auto sector.

There are no short cuts to a successful market entry

The bottom line is that it will be a painstaking and long journey for Chinese OEMs to make their European market entry a success at the second attempt, focusing on EVs. There are no shortcuts.

Yet we believe that they have everything at their disposal this time to avoid a repeat of their earlier failure. Today’s leading Chinese carmakers have a competitive product portfolio, a state-of-the-art technology stack, a customer-centric mindset and deep investor pockets. But as a Chinese proverb rightfully states, “you can’t clap with one hand” (一个巴掌拍不响). It will require a joint effort to make the re-entry of Chinese OEMs into Europe sustainable and profitable, because their success will depend on teaming up with the right local partners. 

Stay tuned for the next article in this series, where we explain:

  • Why Chinese OEMs still need strong partners to achieve lasting success in European markets
  • How these partnerships are faring so far for both sides
  • What needs to be done to make these collaborations more fruitful
Dr. Jan Burgard

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) is CEO of Berylls Group, an international group of companies providing professional services to the automotive industry.

His responsibilities include accelerating the transformation of luxury and premium OEMs, with a particular focus on digitalization, big data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Dr. Jan Burgard is also responsible for the implementation of digital products at Berylls and is a proven expert for the Chinese market.

Dr. Jan Burgard started his career at the investment bank MAN GROUP in New York. He developed a passion for the automotive industry during stopovers at an American consultancy and as manager at a German premium manufacturer. In October 2011, he became a founding partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors. The top management consultancy was the origin of today’s Group and continues to be the professional nucleus of the Group.

After studying business administration and economics, he earned his doctorate with a thesis on virtual product development in the automotive industry.

Willy Wang

Willy Lu Wang (1981) joined Berylls Strategy Advisors in 2017. He started his career participating in the graduate program of Audi focusing on production planning. After stations at another strategy consultancy as well as being the strategy director for a German Tier-1 supplier, he is now responsible for the China business at Berylls.

He has a broad consulting focus working for all clients in China, whether they are JVs, WOFEs or pure local players. He is also responsible for the development of AI and Big Data products dedicated towards the Chinese market further strengthening the Berylls End-to-End strategy and product development capabilities.

Wang studied Electronics & Information Technology with focus on Systems and Software Engineering and Control Theory at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

Hongtao Wei

Hongtao Wei (1988), Associate Partner, joined Berylls Strategy Advisors in 2015, an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, where he focuses on all issues related to the Chinese automotive market. In addition to Western manufacturers in China, his clients also include Chinese OEMs, investors, provincial governments, and state-owned enterprises.

He has profound expert knowledge in the areas of sales and aftersales. His other areas of expertise include digitalization, connectivity, and turnaround management.

He studied Sinology, Economics and Statistics at the Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität in Munich.

Soleiman Mansouri

Soleiman joined the Berylls Group in March 2022. He has set his focus on customer-centrist solutions, gaining experience in Product- and Corporate Strategy, Consulting with the focus on the OEM business. His Automotive career started with digitalization of the Aftersales of an US OEM in Europe and took him to China to the leading German OEM group, heading the Product and Portfolio department. He gained intensive consulting experience with one of the top management consulting firms and as a freelance consultant. Before joining Berylls, he was the Director Go-to-Market of one of the top Chinese OEMs supporting their entrance into the EU market. Soleiman is a graduated M.A./MBA in International Business from the University of Hamburg and ECUST/Shanghai.

Soleiman joined the Berylls Group in March 2022 and is part of the Asia-team, responsible for supporting all players in a successful market entrance. Also, provides profound expertise of customer-centric Product Marketing and Portfolio Strategy approaches to our clients.

Soleiman is expert in customer-centric Product-/Portfolio Strategy, Go-To-Market, Corporate Strategy and Entrepreneurship.

Global Truck Players: Q2 2022 Review

Munich, August 2022

Featured Insights

Global Truck Players: Q2 2022 Review

Munich, August 2022
T

he global truck players Daimler, Traton, Paccar and Volvo are regularly monitored by Berylls commercial vehicle expert Steffen Stumpp.

Here are his major findings for Q2 2022:

  • Highest quarterly profit ever
    The big 4 truck manufacturers have earned cumulated 2.9 bn Euro in Q2 2022 – more than ever before. Main drivers were significant price increases, a positive product mix development as well as favorable exchange rate effects.
  • Supply side remains key to success
    Bottlenecks on the supply side, caused by the Ukraine war and the COVID lockdown in China, limit production volumes and unit sales. There are significant differences in how truck OEMs cope with the current situation.
  • Book-to-bill ratio below 1.0
    For the first time since Q2 2020 the incoming orders were below deliveries, meaning that the truck industry will probably lose pace next year – there are first signs for an economic slowdown.

Can’t wait to read more? Download the Insight now!

Berylls Insight
Global Truck Players: Q2 2022 Review
DOWNLOAD
Authors
Steffen Stumpp

Associate Partner

Andreas Oesinghaus

Associate

Steffen Stumpp

Steffen Stumpp (1970) joined the Berylls Group in October 2020 as Head of Business Unit Commercial Vehicles. At this point, he already looked back on extensive professional and leadership experience in the commercial vehicle industry. Stumpp started his career in an OEM and went through different roles in research, marketing, product planning and after-sales service. When he switched to the automotive supplier industry, he took over the responsibility for worldwide sales and marketing of a medium-sized tier 1 supplier. After another step as head of sales he decided to join Berylls, where he is now responsible for the commercial vehicle business.

Stumpp is a graduate engineer and has studied industrial engineering at the KIT in Karlsruhe and the Technical University of Berlin with focus on logistics.

How Vehicle-as-a-Service can be 50% more profitable than traditional car sales

Munich, August 2022

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How Vehicle-as-a-Service can be 50% more profitable than traditional car sales

Munich, August 2022
M

any OEMs are struggling to create a business case for VaaS that captures all the benefits. Here, we set out the key considerations that are not covered by traditional assessments.

The 30-Second Read:

  • The direct benefits of Vehicle-as-a-Service generate up to 50% more profit for OEMs compared with the traditional sales model, through keeping ownership of vehicles for longer and over more use cycles, and retaining customers by offering them new contracts when their old ones run out
  • There are also indirect customer-related benefits that further strengthen the business case, including lower customer acquisition costs and more options to upsell newer models.
  • However, many OEMs are not capturing these benefits in their VaaS business cases. As a result, they are delaying adding the service and risk missing out entirely on a fast-growing, profitable new line of business.

Introduction

Customer needs and the resulting demand patterns are changing in the automotive industry. Owning a prestigious car used to be a symbol of status, but vehicle ownership is no longer the aspiration of many drivers. This is the result of rapidly changing customer expectations, and influences inside and outside the automotive world. Three main trends dominate:

  • Flexibility: Long-term commitments and rigid asset ownership are not in sync with the lives and demands of today’s customers, who want to keep open the option to try something new in all aspects of their daily lives.
  • Technology risk: Constant improvements in technology lead to shorter product lifecycles and increased risk for buyers as new vehicle value declines even faster.
  • Fear of missing out: The number of vehicle brands and therefore options is increasing, making customers reluctant to be tied to the same car for an extended period of time. Today’s customers also show less brand loyalty than in the past. (For a more in-depth assessment of these trends please see Berylls’ Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) study).

These forces present a fundamental challenge for the traditional automotive business, built on one-off sales and after-sales revenue from parts and servicing. Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) models, in which the customer does not own the vehicle anymore and returns it at the end of the contract, are on the rise – based on current customer feedback, we estimate there will be a 38% increase in the market share of use-based models by 2025.

VaaS very much caters to what customers already expect and value from services in other parts of their lives, such as music or video streaming. The good news is, it creates two central opportunities for OEMs and other providers:

  • Firstly, it is far easier to stay in touch with customers, contacting them to renew or update their contract, each time their current agreement ends. As a result, customers can be retained for several usage cycles. Providers can also optimize returns by selling complementary products and services (such as insurance packages or electric vehicle charging services), tailored to the customer and the vehicle.
  • Secondly, the OEM or service provider retains ownership of the vehicle, and can find new customers for it over multiple use cycles due to flexible usage periods (see Figure 1)

Figure 1

In contrast to the traditional ownership model, in which the seller loses access to the customer and the vehicle after the initial sale or financing contract ends, VaaS providers can at least in theory benefit from an ever-increasing customer and vehicle base.

Based on past project experience, we have calculated that long-term profitability can increase by 40 to 50% as a result. In Figure 2 below we show an indicative comparison of product profitability for both sales models. The calculation is based on anonymized data from a volume OEM, taking the average across several of its battery electric SUVs.

As the chart shows, individual VaaS offerings themselves are less profitable than traditional new car sales. However,  profits across multiple use cycles add up to create a far higher total vehicle lifetime value (VLV) for the VaaS provider:

Figure 2

Building the VaaS business case: Don’t overlook the indirect benefits

In addition to the direct benefits outlined above, the VaaS model also offers important indirect  – and frequently overlooked – benefits. Combined, these will strengthen the business case even further.

Indirect benefits include creating loyalty by offering a convenient, appealing service that meets changing customer demands. At a time when the brand or particular vehicle hardware is no longer a reason to buy or to stay with one OEM, loyalty must be built up through outstanding service and a superb customer experience.

Another indirect benefit of multiple, shorter use cycles is the ability to cross- and up-sell more often. A customer might decide after just a couple of months to switch to a contract for a more expensive model, a decision that would have taken a couple of years in the traditional sales model with longer holding periods.

By making targeted offers to customers they already have a contract with, OEMs will also be able to spend less on marketing because they will have a larger pool of “locked in” customers.

The table below looks at the top- and bottom-line benefits of further little-noticed advantages offered by VaaS, focusing on customer relationship management (there are further indirect benefits to VaaS which relate to the operating model, which we will explore in an upcoming article):

How will this help OEMs and VaaS providers to take their share of a growing market?

To date, many OEMs are struggling to create a positive business case for VaaS. From the outset, their analysis fails to recognize the 40 to 50% direct profit increase that VaaS can deliver across multiple use cycles (as this profit is usually booked separately across different departments). Further, they do not consider the indirect benefits of the VaaS business model. In this blog we have focused on the customer-related benefits, but there are even greater positive effects if one also considers operating model improvements. These include synergies from increased asset utilization if one common fleet was used for various VaaS offerings in parallel.

For many providers, in particular incumbent OEMs that are looking to expand their traditional, ownership-centered sales offerings to include VaaS, it’s difficult to fully assess even the direct impact factors in their business case. This is because in many companies, the product development process is still siloed, with every department seeking to optimize its own profitability rather than take a cross-functional approach to designing a new service model. 

As a result, there is a risk that many potentially successful VaaS offerings will not be launched, because the underlying business case failed to show their true potential. This represents a missed opportunity for providers, as Vehicle-as-a-Service offers are here to stay. Without a VaaS product, OEMs and other potential providers are missing out on securing their customer base in this emerging market.

Today, this may mean losing only a little market share, but in the near future, it means missing out on addressing entire customer groups because they don’t have the right offers: our Vehicle-as-a-Service study showed that by 2025, 50% of Gen Z drivers would use VaaS to buy their next electric car.

If you would like to discuss your own VaaS business case calculations or your strategy and product design, please get in touch:

Berylls Insight
HOW VEHICLE-AS-A-SERVICE CAN BE 50% MORE PROFITABLE THAN TRADITIONAL CAR SALES
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Authors
Christopher Ley

Associate Partner

Florian Tauschek

Associate Partner

Tobias Detzler

Senior Consultant

Nikolas Horn

Senior Associate

Florian Tauschek

Florian Tauschek has 8 years of experience in strategy consulting. He focuses on business & sales model strategies for flexible Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) offers.

He is an expert in topics such as customer & vehicle lifetime value optimization, the transformation of the underlying automotive sales model from one-time asset sales towards multicycle models generating recurring revenues as well as market entry strategies for various VaaS products such as operating lease or subscriptions. Furthermore he is the author of several market leading studies around VaaS.

He holds a Master of Science degree in management from HHL – Leipzig Graduate School of Management.

Christopher Ley

Christopher Ley joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors) in October 2021 as Partner. He has over 14 years of top management consulting experience with focus on new business models and market expansions within the automotive & mobility industry. He is an expert around Vehicle-as-a-Service, comprising vehicle finance & leasing, fleet management and mobility services. Christopher Ley is advising OEMs, Captives, Financial Services Companies, PE & VC Investors, Leasing & Rental Companies, Fleet Managers and Mobility Startups around the transformation from one-time sales towards use-based multi-cycle business models on a global level.

Prior to joining Berylls, Christopher Ley has been working for other international management consulting firms, amongst others Monitor Deloitte and Alvarez & Marsal. He holds a diploma degree in business administration from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz and an MBA from Colorado State University.

Snapshot of the European Auto Subscription Market

Munich, October 2021

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SNAPSHOT OF THE EUROPEAN AUTO SUBSCRIPTION MARKET

Munich, October 2021

The automotive market is in the midth of maybe the largest transformation in its history. Customers are demanding flexible usage-based offerings and turn away from classical vehicle ownership. This trend is further increased by the advent of electric vehicles. Digitally-enabled direct sales models fundamentally change the way how mobility is purchased and allow new competitors to enter the market. Subscription offerings are now closing the gap between classical leasing and rental models.

We have analyzed the current dynamics in the European market and assessed the strategic rationale for different archetypes of players to enter the subscription market.

Find out more about the future of automotive sales, subscription offerings and there role in Vehicle-as-a-Service models in our newest Berylls Insight “Snapshot of the European auto subscription market”.

Berylls Insight
SNAPSHOT OF THE EUROPEAN AUTO SUBSCRIPTION MARKET
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Authors
CHRISTOPHER LEY

Associate Partner

PHILIPP ENDERLE

Associate Partner

TOBIAS DETZLER

Senior Consultant

Christopher Ley

Christopher Ley joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors) in October 2021 as Partner. He has over 14 years of top management consulting experience with focus on new business models and market expansions within the automotive & mobility industry. He is an expert around Vehicle-as-a-Service, comprising vehicle finance & leasing, fleet management and mobility services. Christopher Ley is advising OEMs, Captives, Financial Services Companies, PE & VC Investors, Leasing & Rental Companies, Fleet Managers and Mobility Startups around the transformation from one-time sales towards use-based multi-cycle business models on a global level.

Prior to joining Berylls, Christopher Ley has been working for other international management consulting firms, amongst others Monitor Deloitte and Alvarez & Marsal. He holds a diploma degree in business administration from Johannes Gutenberg-Universität in Mainz and an MBA from Colorado State University.

Tobias Detzler

Tobias Detzler joined the Berylls Group in October 2021 as part of the Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) team. At this point, he already looked back on several successful consulting projects in the automotive and the automotive finance industry with another consultancy.

Within the area of Vehicle-as-a-Service, Tobias developed particular expertise in topics such as vehicle subscriptions, used car (remarketing) and business model/strategy development. Beyond that, he completed projects in each dimension of the CASE trends and therefore gained knowledge around connected, autonomous, shared and electric mobility.

He holds a Master of Science degree in management from the University of Mannheim and focused his studies on finance and general management.