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ew things shape modern life as much as individual mobility. Be it as an expression of freedom and individuality, or as an economic driver.
To reflect this, we have developed the Solactive Berylls LeanVal Automobility Leaders 100 Index – the AUTO100. It tracks the performance of the 100 most
relevant publicly listed automobility players worldwide.
By design, the AUTO100 covers the industry’s entire value chain – from vehicle manufacturers and suppliers, to dealer groups, and providers of mobility services or infrastructure.
There are several major effects impacting the global capital markets. Global economy is suffering due to ongoing COVID lockdowns, especially in China, leading to disruptions in the supply chains, shortage of semiconductor and other shortcomings in resources. Nevertheless, the sector is benefiting from recent increases in domestic demand and expansion in the US and Europe.
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his is the first in a new short series that will focus on the performance of Chinese OEMs (old and new) in Europe. In this introductory article, we take a hard look at Chinese entrants’ achievements so far. Continue reading in the upcoming weeks for further insights.
Since 2009, China has topped the ranking of global export champions. For several years, the top three categories have been: (1) electronic devices and equipment; (2) machinery; and (3) apparel and textiles. Although China is a trade colossus, it is not famous for automobile exports. But these have been growing in value consistently since 2018, even through the Covid-19 pandemic.
China’s automotive exports hit a new record last year, with statistics from China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) showing that they had doubled in a year and exceeded 2mn units for the first time. Exports accounted for 7.7% of total revenues in the auto industry – an increase of 3.7% over the previous year.
This performance has made China the third-largest auto exporter in the world, catching up with traditional auto powerhouses such as the United States, France, and Italy. However, the export volume is still not as high as those of Germany and Japan, with approximately 2.2mn units and 3.4mn units respectively.
Major Chinese OEMs are actively engaged in markets abroad. Traditional Chinese carmakers typically enter developing countries such as Russia and South Africa, and Middle Eastern and Eastern European countries with mostly budget/value-for-money products. But Chinese OEMs also hope to win a share of the premium segments in mature Western European markets with advanced NEVs as well. NIO and Polestar are widely considered premium brands, for example. MG prices can reach more than £31k (in the UK) and ZEEKR as much as €50k, while prices for the upcoming HiPhi X are expected to match those of a Porsche Taycan.
Currently, the main export markets for Chinese automotive brands are South-east Asia, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin America, with Chinese OEMs performing quite well in these countries and regions.
Let’s look at some examples:
Chery is selling its models in more than 80 countries and regions around the world, mainly focused on emerging markets such as Russia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. In 2021, Chery exported 269k vehicles, with a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 136%, making it the fastest-growing Chinese auto brand abroad.
SAIC has been the leading Chinese brand abroad since 2019. In 2021, it sold a total of 697k vehicles abroad, a YoY increase of 78.9%. SAIC’s sales performance in emerging markets including the Middle East, Egypt, and Mexico has been good. In Mexico, for instance, SAIC sold 3.5k cars in April this year and enjoyed continuous sales growth for the first four months of 2022. In the Middle East and Egyptian markets, SAIC sold 5.5k and 2.9k vehicles in April respectively, also setting new records.
SAIC’s strong sales were also achieved thanks to the MG brand, with its British heritage. MG enjoys strong recognition and acceptance in mature auto markets such as Western Europe, Australia, and New Zealand, ranking 26th in the European Automobile Association’s list of top car brands by sales in Europe in Q1 2022. MG sold 21k vehicles in the first quarter of this year, nearly three times more against the same period in 2021. This gave SAIC a 0.76% share of the market in Europe, and the company surpassed the growth rate of brands including Land Rover and Honda to set the best record of Chinese OEMs in the European market. SAIC now ranks as one of the top 10 brands in 17 countries around the world.
However, not every Chinese player is doing as well as SAIC in targeting the premium segment in mature automotive markets in Western Europe.
Traditional Chinese OEMs have built a large fan base in the volume segment and acquired considerable expertise in entering developing countries. But this is unlikely to satisfy Chinese OEMs, which have their eye on the highly prestigious Western European market. The “if-you-can-make-it-here-you-can-make-it-anywhere” story is simply too sweet to tell at home (in China) and not give Western Europe a serious try at least.
To do so, Chinese OEMs typically target the premium segment: they all want to become premium or at least more upscale and shed their budget/value-for-money image. Preferably, they would like to make their mark with NEVs, where Chinese players believe they have strong products and technology, a solid reputation in their home market, and a legacy-free perception in Western Europe.
However, using NEVs to open the door to Western Europe, particularly in the premium segment, is not an automatic win for all Chinese OEMs.
To date, more than 10 Chinese OEMs have launched, or are about to launch, NEVs in Europe. Among them are some of the most illustrious and well-known OEMs, new players and established ones alike, including NIO, Xpeng, BYD, and Great Wall.
However, only two have achieved initial success: Polestar (originally Swedish) and MG (originally British). Both are among the top 20 best-selling NEVs in Europe. By contrast, other Chinese OEMs have barely made an impression in Europe.
Chinese OEM sales in Europe 2021 (vehicle units)
It is no coincidence that the two most successful brands are of Western European origin. Technically, they are not pure Chinese brands, and it is true that their starting point (in terms of branding) is far ahead of traditional Chinese OEMs. Polestar and MG seem to owe a lot to their inherited European brand ‘halo’ giving them a solid, existing brand awareness and image in Europe. Xpeng, NIO, and other Chinese brands that have just entered Europe still have some distance to go to win over European customers, especially those in Western Europe. (Sneak peek: We do believe that, in theory, “dinner is served” for Chinese OEMs – traditional and new – and the starting position for traditional Chinese carmakers could be a lot worse, as we will describe in the next article in this short series.)
Operating in Europe is very different from operating in a market where brand loyalty is low and Chinese NEV players are considered to be the avantgarde. In Europe, traditional brands still hold a strong position and new players, in particular from the US, implement quick go-to-market approaches. Thus, Chinese players will have to go the extra mile to succeed.
In terms of product spec, for example, Chinese NEVs are highly competitive, particularly in new areas such as NEV range, digital functions, connectivity, ADAS and AD. We are convinced that both the product and portfolio of the NEV players pose a big threat for traditional European OEMs. Combined with aggressive pricing levels and digital/mobility functions (in particular wallbox, mobility services/charging network access, mobility guarantees etc.), the offering should be more than competitive.
However, several key issues remain. Firstly, Chinese OEMs (like any other OEM) need to find the right partners to make the ecosystem described above work, starting from the basics including sales, aftersales and call centers. Another critical task is branding. The key question for Chinese OEMs is how to promote themselves to European customers and create trustworthy brands in Europe. The timing could not be better to introduce their cars to Western Europe as public interest for electric cars is steadily increasing plus current challenges of Western OEMs to supply cars for their customers. But in the light of past failures – for example, the infamous Brilliance Euro NCAP flop in 2009 – every move this time must be flawless.
To this end, Chinese OEMs should lead on their biggest strength: customer-centricity. They must understand European customers, how they differ from Chinese customers, and most importantly, how European customers differ among themselves. Based on these customer insights, targeted promotion programs need to be developed along with a pan-European roll-out plan. In parallel, points of sale and the entire ecosystem need to be established, so hard-earned buzz and leads get picked up in the transition from digital to physical sales efforts.
That being said, we appreciate this is easier said than done. Chinese OEMs typically send whatever they have available in China to Europe, without adaptions. So, whether it’s product spec, sales model, apps or customer experience, Chinese OEMs tend to provide the same range of solutions in Europe as they do back home. This again neglects their core strength in customer-centric product and solution design.
For example, OEM-led customer communities work well in China, as seen in the case of all new players. It is assumed that they will work well in Europe, too. But OEM-community activities in China are a mixture of auto and non-auto events, while traditional grassroots communities in Europe are mostly fully auto-focused. Although there is nothing wrong with community building, the purpose and content must be adapted toward European customers’ preferences and expectations.
Interestingly, what we are seeing in Europe is now also happening in China – but to Western OEMs. Many of those have a long success story in China, but they are facing trouble with their EV portfolios. While domestic brands including Xpeng or GAC Aion are enjoying strong sales, this is not the case for Western marques. What is missing is the tailoring of design, digital services and other features to suit Chinese tastes. The one-size-fits-everywhere concept – selling the same models to the entire world – doesn’t work anymore. It doesn’t work in China for Western OEMs and doesn’t work in Europe for Chinese OEMs.
So despite the fanfare that has accompanied the entry of Chinese players into Europe, they have relatively little to show for it so far. What are reasons for this discrepancy? Is it only cultural, or are there more significant reasons, such as a lack of understanding of European business practices, and how different markets and customers behave? What are the real challenges for Chinese OEMs?
In the weeks to come, we will dig deeper into these issues and discuss possible ways for Chinese OEMs to succeed in Europe.
This is the first in a new short series on Chinese OEMs’ performance in Europe. Stay tuned in the upcoming weeks for further insights. Up next: Dinner is served – why the new market entrants from China have only themselves to beat.
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limate change requires turning away from fossil fuels, with the need to switchto zero-emission powertrains as quickly as possible. Connectivity and digitalization, which have been taken on rather slowly by the logistics sector, now enablea variety of new players and new business models to challenge the position ofthe incumbents.
Driverless operation is the most disruptive piece of this industry transformation. Autonomous trucking has long been a secondary field of action for carfocused tech players like Waymo and Aurora. In the meantime it has become
common sense that autonomous trucking provides a more than tenfold opportunity compared to passenger mobility. It is the killer application of autonomous driving technology and the ultimate game changer for the whole trucking industry.
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igital experiences have a role to play, but it is the combination with a personalized service that makes sales happen.
The luxury goods industry has shown remarkable resilience in recent years, enjoying global sales of €283 billion last year – that was 29% higher than in 2020 and 1% higher than pre-pandemic. A major part of the industry’s success is down to digital sales channels such as Farfetch and the online divisions of luxury goods giants including LVMH.
This success is often used to draw conclusions about how the high-end automotive industry should transform itself to keep up with changing customer demands. Yet the luxury car market – by which we mean brands at the very top of the price and exclusivity range including Bentley, Bugatti, Rolls-Royce, Ferrari and Lamborghini – still operates by its own rules. The decision to buy a luxury car is often made out of a strong emotional attachment to the brand and every customer will have different, and nuanced, reasons for spending their money to go beyond the mainstream. So what do we know about these customers and what they want when it comes to customer service?
They are high and ultra high net worth individuals (UHNWIs), the latter defined as those with a personal fortune of more than $30 million. The group is growing worldwide, but particularly in Asia, where 24% of UHNWIs will live by 2025 (see map below). However, there are also notable differences between customers in this group. There are contrasts between “old money” and successful newcomers, for example, and people who seek out conspicious symbols of wealth compared with those who value privacy above all else.
Despite these differences, our work with luxury carmakers has shown that, while digital channels are undoubtedly a key part of the brand’s presentation, physical touchpoints continue to be essential in the luxury segment. Opportunities to see, touch and drive the cars, and build relationships with trusted staff, remain the most important success factors when it comes to this group of customers
2020 – HNWI* & UHNWI*NHNWI*¹, Someone with a net worth over US$1 million including their primary residence.
UHNWI*², Someone with a net worth of over US$30 million including their primary residence
2025 – HNWI* & UHNWI*NHNWI*¹, Someone with a net worth over US$1 million including their primary residence.
UHNWI*², Someone with a net worth of over US$30 million including their primary residence
Consumers are used to the convenience of booking or buying almost everything online, and using digital tools to configure how a new sofa or paint color will look in their own home. The auto industry has been forced to keep up, and OEMs are driving digitization forward in all strands of their marketing for the volume and premium segments.
Yet for now, configuring the perfect car online still requires a great deal of self-study on the part of the customer – they are offered the same complex selection of specifications and packages that they were previously guided through by dealers, and they have to decipher the industry terminology on their own. Put simply, luxury car customers – used to seamless service and pain-free buying experiences in every other area of their lives – do not want to do this.
Asking them to use standard online configurators also overlooks the huge range of motivations among customers in the luxury segment. At one end of the spectrum are the car enthusiasts and collectors, who likely have a garage full of unique luxury models. Online configurators and standard information strike entirely the wrong note with this customer. Instead, individual, personal advice and working with a trusted dealer, who is also a fellow enthusiast, plays a very important role in their decision to buy.
At the opposite end, there are luxury buyers who have no involvement or interest in the ordering process and hand it all over to an assistant or driver. Doing the work online themselves is also seriously off-putting for these potential customers. Those in between need a digital experience that excites, that makes them want to buy the vehicle right away without cutting corners – with outstanding UX/UI, high-quality 3D model views and the easiest click path.
It is a long-standing cliché that inviting luxury customers to champagne receptions and exclusive events such as polo matches will persuade them to buy a new car. This may be true in some cases, and many customers undoubtedly enjoy these types of exclusive perks for owners. However, what luxury customers really respond to is personalized communication from a relationship manager they have dealt with before, who knows their specific interests.
One example is for the relationship manager to call their sports car enthusiast customer to make them aware of a new limited edition model before it is publicly announced. This is combined with the chance to pre-order it or to be placed high on the waiting list. In this situation, the dealer is the source of access to limited edition vehicles, but also a fellow aficionado with whom the customer can enjoy discussing all things car and brand-related.
For other customers, what matters is a flexible pick-up and drop-off service, an invitation to meet the chief designer at the OEM, and yes, champagne receptions.
In each case, the relationship with the dealer is uncomplicated, consistent and flexible. Using a standardized online booking tool to arrange a test drive does not excite the luxury customer, whereas a proactive phone call from a relationship manager to suggest a test drive at a location of the customer’s choice does.
In this context, the dealer network of established OEMs, built up over years, is a huge asset that many new players would love to recreate.
Electric vehicles (EVs) dominate the future plans of the car industry and the positive environmental impact is not in question. However, when it comes to buying an EV, luxury customers take a range of views.
The first group are technology and innovation enthusiasts, who always have the latest phone, smart home equipment, and now an electric car. This positive view is most common among younger UHNWIs, who are engaged with sustainability issues.
The second group do not own an EV themselves, but are neutral toward the engine technology and accept the growing trend away from carbon-emitting cars.
The third group are the rebels, who enjoy the performance, acceleration and sound of conventional engines, and also enjoy being part of an increasingly exclusive club of prestigious combustion-engine vehicle owners. A sense of freedom is important to these customers.
The final group are prominent public figures balancing two identities – in the public sphere they use premium EVs as part of their carefully curated image, but with their inner circle, they favor the most prestigious luxury marques and the excitement of powerful petrol engines. These parallel worlds are meticulously managed.
Each luxury carmaker and each customer must of course be treated individually, but from our experience with clients, focusing on the emotional, physical contact points along the entire customer journey, rather than non-emotional digital experiences, is the more promising strategy. The digital customer journey does also matter in the top luxury segment but is only a differentiator if the experience relates to its luxury customers, and a natural rapport with the relationship manager plays a more important role the higher up the scale of wealth you go.
In this context, OEMs need to ask themselves how their physical retail channels may have to change to meet the demands of current and future luxury buyers. They should also consider how the level of service described here could be scaled and communicated to their dealer network, so that every relationship manager is performing at the required level.
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Munich, July 2022
EMs are collecting a lot of data from vehicles in the field. But are they making the best use of it?
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hy ironically NEV players restore the importance of Physical Automotive Retail in China.
Almost precisely two years ago, we at Berylls China took a close look on how ‘Physical Automotive Retail’ would need to change in order to defy the ‘Retail Apocalypse’. We recommended an approach based on flexibility, moving on from all-in-one-formats. We showed new ways to get it right: enhance customer experience, increase market exploitation, and as a bonus, keep facility costs manageable.
So, a swift reaction by German OEMs should be top of their CEOs’ agendas, in order to win back customer approval for their electric models and compete more effectively with China’s NEV start-ups. The following sales numbers in 2021 show the dramatically changing composition of China’s NEV market:
But then COVID came. And it came to stay. And while it stayed, it changed, without mercy, all aspects of both our personal and professional lifestyles. As we all know, this was the era of any technology serving remote interactions and there was no exception for Automotive Retail. For instance, during the first lockdowns in China, Automotive retailers quickly established virtual showroom tours and virtual ‘on-demand’ test drives using short video snippets to introduce their cars while customers could not actually pay them a physical visit.
Of course, it is not all COVID, and people’s lifestyles were anyways changing in an increasingly digitalized world. Convenience and flexibility became top issues for consumers. Many OEMs had recognized this already ahead of the pandemic and proclaimed that the digital channel/online domain will become the primary customer journey channel, triggering any interaction between OEM and customers. Also, digitalization of the entire customer journey plays an essential part on most OEMs’ journey towards direct sales.
So, it seemed to be all set, that the once primary physical channel will (finally) lose its importance and become only a supporting channel of the digital domain, reduced to pure fulfillment purposes (e.g., payment is still done at dealerships in China).
Not surprisingly, this narrative has its followers, and we see that OEMs globally (not only in China) try to focus on the digital part. As a side effect they are forgetting to exploit the potential which the physical domain still offers with its emotionalizing and differentiating unique customer experiences. OEMs start huge transformation programs towards digitalization and dedicate large resources for online campaign management, performance marketing, lead flow management. It seems to be all about pushing the right content, online (!), to the right person, online (!), and expecting this to be exciting enough to create a strong enough interest to lead to a test drive.
From our perspective, this is quite a loss as the physical channel still offers substantial power for business development, lead generation, and ultimately sales conversion. A recent Berylls analysis of customer data revealed that more than 50% of qualified leads are still generated during showroom visits. In other words, more than 50% of leads are in risk to be lost if the physical touchpoint is forgotten.
Now, people tend to argue that successful new EV players are ‘changing the game’ by fully focusing on digital channels and direct sales. We would beg to differ. Matter of fact, successful NEV players in China are very fast and eager to create physical outlets in order to drive their sales (as seen in the examples of NIO and Xpeng). These players are rapidly increasing their physical footprint. And they do this not only in big cities, but also in lower-tiered smaller cities. In particular for NIO, setting up a strong physical presence is an integral part of its strategy of creating customer stickiness throughout the entire journey.
Even Tesla relies heavily on physical presence. The brand operates 49 Tesla stores in Greater China. However, it has another regional footprint, focusing heavily on Yangtze Delta (Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang Province) and Pearl Delta (Guangdong Province).
Thus, it’s absolutely wrong to say that NEV buyers are ‘digital only’ and don’t care about a physical retail experience. Actually, they do care a lot.
Nonetheless, in the advent of increasing digitalization and with the agent model on the horizon, traditional physical retail will no longer suffice as the point of sale, as we said already two years ago. It is not about building more 4S dealerships. For the physical domain to bloom and successfully co-exist with the online channel, it must change substantially.
Of course, incumbents have not stood still and done nothing – quite the opposite is true. First, most OEMs are adjusting and upgrading their current network landscape. For instance, they started to introduce different formats, they are making their retail outlets more attractive and luxurious, and put product experience at the forefront. This is a good first step as different formats allow outlet deployment in different geographic situations, but many more have to follow.
Looking at the aforementioned dominance of the digital domain, it’s clear that physical retail needs to provide full online-to-offline integration on an operational level. Currently, the digital and the physical domain are still too decoupled. Physical retail is understood as an extension of the digitalized journey to provide brand experience and emotionalization – and this is how it should act.
Here are few very operational examples and thoughts that support our opinion. Customers should always have the opportunity to download the APP in the retail store and store personnel should advise customer to download the APP, e.g., for more personalized experience and information. Customers should always be encouraged to check-in at the retail store via the APP upon entry. Customers should have the possibility not only to book test drives, but also have access to in-depth product and technology information and be alerted when certain models are available for experience and testing. APP information and retail store backends should be fully integrated, so that seamless experience and personalized recommendations can be provided as all customer data (incl. online and store visit history, product preferences etc.) are stored centrally and are accessible to all retail outlets. And finally, as customers nowadays don’t only buy into a product, but more into a lifestyle (or often more accurately, a desirable representation of a lifestyle), retail outlets can become “community centers” and “owners’ clubs” offering dedicated and relevant experiences for customers and their affiliates.
And finally, no technological transformation of the point-of-sale is worth the effort, if one doesn’t close the loop on the human and cultural level. This requires a change of mindset of the dealer personnel to, well, ‘retail’. Instead of applying the traditional sales-driven mindset, the new mindset needs to be service-oriented and customer-centric; it can no longer push products, it must include listening to and understanding customer needs and be at the side of the customer for the entire lifetime. Only with such a mindset change, a true transformation of physical retail operations can happen.
Of course, such a change cannot happen overnight, and the targeted new reality of ‘Automotive Retail’ needs to be supported by, just to name a few
It’s probably good news that COVID was not able to change it all – or maybe it made it even clearer that a virtual test drive can’t replace the thrill of an actual, real-world vehicle experience and that no video explanation can replace touching, feeling, and smelling a brand-new car.
Brick-and-mortar dealerships remain important as they are going through strategic, operational, and cultural transformations to stay relevant. This is the Physical Automotive Retail Renaissance.
Pressemitteilung
ie ESG und Batteriepass die Zulieferindustrie nachhaltiger machen sollen
München, Juli 2022 Die Berylls Batterie-Experten Alexander Timmer und Peter Trögel haben sich, unterstützt durch die Fraunhofer-Einrichtung Forschungsfertigung Batteriezelle (FFB), die Situati-on der Batteriezellenfertiger angeschaut. Ihre Analyse zeigt, wie Innovationen in der Batteriepro-duktion den Kostendruck auf Seite der Zulieferer senken werden. Zugleich steigt der Nachhaltig-keitsdruck und damit der Bedarf an ESG-Transparenz (Environmental Social Governance, zu Deutsch: Umwelt, Soziales und Unternehmensführung). Im Zuge der Einführung des Batteriepas-ses, den die EU-Kommission für 2026 plant, werden der Einsatz umweltschonender Produktions-technologien und die Auswahl von Produktionsstandorten mit hohem Grünstrompotenzial zu entscheidenden Wettbewerbsvorteilen für die Zulieferer.
Alexander Timmer und sein Team gehen davon aus, dass eine Kostenparität zwischen ICE und BEV sich bei Unterschreitung der Batteriekosten von 100 USD/ kWh bzw. 94 EUR/ kWh ergibt. Dieser Wert wird bis 2028 durch Stellhebel in den Bereichen Zellchemie und Akkupack-Design sowie der Produktion unterschritten. Aber nicht nur der technische Fortschritt in der Produktion ist künftig entscheidend. Denn neben dem Zell-Einkaufspreis gewinnt aus Sicht der Autohersteller, auch das Thema Nachhaltigkeit innerhalb der nächsten fünf Jahre massiv an Bedeutung.
In Abhängigkeit des Strommixes können 30 bis 50 Prozent der CO2 Emissionen in der BEV-Fertigung auf die Batterie zurückgeführt werden. Da das Thema Nachhaltigkeit zukünftig eine größere Wichtigkeit in der Vergabeentscheidung der Hersteller haben wird, entwickelt sich die Verfügbarkeit von Grünstrom für Batteriezulieferer zu einem entscheidenden Standortfaktor für die Lieferanten.
In Deutschland sind die CO2 Emissionen pro produzierter kWh um ca. 50 Prozent geringer als bei-spielsweise in Polen, jedoch immer noch mehr als doppelt so hoch wie in Schweden, wo der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien bei rund 60 Prozent liegt.
Wie wichtig das Thema Nachhaltigkeit im Kontext E-Mobilität und Batterie wird, zeigen die jüngs-ten Entwicklungen in Brüssel. Die europäische Kommission plant für 2026 die Einführung eines digitalen Batteriepasses. Ein Jahr später werden CO2-Grenzwerte erwartet. Damit wird Nachhal-tigkeit in der Zellproduktion, u.a. gemessen am CO2 Ausstoß, zu einem Vorteil für die Autoherstel-ler, mit dem sie sich im Wettbewerb absetzen können.
ovid is clearly over in the UK - and people are eager to meet in person again. So after two troubled years MOVE LONDON was back in full swing over two days last week.
Over 600 speakers had signed up and 350 exhibitors bought space on the vast floor of the ExCel centre. And thousands of delegates crowded the space and made this one of the biggest ‘future mobility’-themed gatherings.
With numerous presentations throughout the day happening in parallel on multiple stages it is impossible to provide a comprehensive summary – therefore please take the following as my subjective ‘personal notes’ with no claim to completeness.
… and will continue to take over much faster from ICE than expected only a couple of years ago – that seemed to be a general consensus across the event. And certainly, recent registration figures in many markets confirm that. But then, looking behind the façade, are we seeing a sustainable trend?
One data point at MOVE caused second thoughts at least in my mind: CARWOW, the new car buying platform, said that after seeing 37% of their users considering a BEV in 2019, this number has grown to 49% in 2022. Keep in mind that in 2019 those 37% ‘BEV considerers’ bought only 1.7% of new cars. In 2022 the 49% considerers are buying the now almost 15% BEVs among all new cars in the UK. I couldn’t help seeing a rapid running out of BEV-ready car buyers in these numbers. Combine that with the pull back of government incentives and the BEV revolution might run out of momentum soon.
Not least because of … charging, which is certainly on top of the list for all BEV hesitators (and, knowing from my own experience, unfortunately also for us BEV drivers). And despite a lot of proposals and intensive discussions it will remain the main challenge for wide-spread BEV adoption. A few key themes discussed at MOVE:
On the downside I could not fight of the impression that there is going to be a large problem with charging, at least in the short and medium term:
Over the last three years I often could not avoid the impression that for some experts and activists BEVs have become a purpose in themselves. MOVE, however, left no doubt that protecting the environment was the main reason to start the electrification of mobility – and Northern Europe was at the forefront:
Pressemitteilung
er Bedarf an Traktionsakkus legt gewaltig zu, in erster Linie profitieren etablierte Hersteller. Chancen für Start-ups beim Recycling.
München, 21.6.2022 Der jüngste Beschluss des EU-Parlaments, Verbrennungsmotoren ab 2035 als Antrieb für Neufahrzeuge zu verbieten, ist eigentlich obsolet. Schließlich haben sich alle wesentlichen Fahrzeughersteller, die auf dem europäischen Markt eine Rolle spielen, längst zur E-Mobilität bekannt. Viele von ihnen werden schon deutlich vor 2035 aus der ICE-Technik aussteigen. So ist es wenig überraschend, dass die weltweite Nachfrage nach Li-Ion-Akkus als Energiespeicher für die neue Mobilität rasant an Bedeutung zulegt.
Die Experten von Berylls Strategy Advisors gehen davon aus, dass die jährliche Produktionskapazität von Lithiumionen-Batterien im Jahr 2021 in den USA, Europa und China in Summe knapp unter 700 GWh lag. Für 2030 prognostizieren die Experten in diesen Regionen einen jährlichen Bedarf von bis zu 2.600 GWh. Alexander Timmer, Partner bei Berylls Strategy Advisors: „Um dieses Ziel zu erreichen, müssten die Hersteller ihre Fertigungskapazitäten jährlich im Schnitt um 16 Prozent steigern. Das Geld dafür ist da.“ Seit 2020 hat sich das Budget, mit dem die Finanzierungsrunden den Batterie-Start-ups zu Liquidität verhelfen, mehr als versechsfacht. Das gesamte jährliche Finanzierungsvolumen der von Berylls betrachteten Start-ups ist von 900 Millionen Euro auf über sechs Milliarden Euro.
Die Finanziers setzen allerdings eher auf bereits gut im Markt etablierte Unternehmen, zum Nachteil der Newcomer. In der Folge schrumpft die Zahl der Firmenneugründungen rund um die Batterieproduktion, während der Bedarf an Akkus gleichzeitig stark wächst. Neben der Fortführung der Produktion von Li-Ion-Akkus, bestimmen neue Zelltechnologien die Zukunft der Traktionsbatterien und geben der Industrie den Innovationspfad vor. Allerdings stehen Start-ups, die sich mit der Festkörper-Technologie auseinandersetzen, auch auf diesem Feld im harten Wettbewerb zu den bekannten Zellherstellern. Die treiben mit ihrer Kapitalmacht die Entwicklung voran. Zusätzlich haben sie, durch bereits bestehende Produktionskapazitäten und dem zugehörigen Know-How einen Vorsprung gegenüber den Newcomern. Die können auch in dieser Zukunftstechnologie nur mit echten Produkt-USPs glänzen.
Für Start-ups, die dennoch am Boom der Elektromobilität teilhaben wollen, gibt es andere Möglichkeiten, um erfolgreich in den Markt einzusteigen. Sie sollten sich um die zunehmend wichtiger werdenden Randbereiche der Akku-Wertschöpfungskette bemühen. Zu den erfolgversprechenden Segmenten gehören nach Ansicht der Berylls-Experten die Feldüberwachung der Batterien, die Wiederaufbereitung sowie das stoffliche Recycling der in den Batterien enthaltenen Materialien. Nicht zuletzt, weil die EU die Bedingungen für die Batterie-Recyclingquote deutlich verschärfen will. Bis 2025 auf soll eine Quote von 90 Prozent gelten, die dann bis 2030 auf 95 Prozent anwachsen wird. Für Firmenneugründungen in diesem Bereich sind dies gute Nachrichten.
Tatsächlich ergreifen bereits einige Start-ups die hier gegebenen Möglichkeiten und die Zahl der Newcomer in diesen Bereichen beginnt zu wachsen. Die Chancen sollten allerdings auch von den Playern genutzt werden, die heute bereits als Akku-Produzenten erfolgreich sind und selbstverständlich auch von Zulieferern, deren Geschäftsmodell bislang auf dem konventionellen Antriebsstrang fußt.
Vor allem das Recycling erscheint vielversprechend, denn der Hunger nach Rohstoffen wächst beinahe exponentiell, während gleichzeitig wichtige Lieferanten, bedingt durch die Nachwirkungen der Pandemie, vor allem aber wegen des Ukrainekriegs ausfallen. Unternehmen, die hier nicht über das nötige Know-how verfügen, tun gut daran, sich dieses Wissen einzukaufen oder über Kooperationen an Bord zu holen.
Copyright Berylls by AlixPartners
