Getting it right in Europe’s fast-growing car subscription market

Munich, May 2022

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GETTING IT RIGHT IN EUROPE’S FAST-GROWING CAR SUBSCRIPTION MARKET

Munich, May 2022
F

ive “moments of truth” are essential to deliver the seamless experience customers demand

Across Europe, auto manufacturers, start-ups, established rental agencies and dealers are rolling out car subscription offers to keep pace with rapidly growing customer demand. Berylls estimates that total annual new subscription contracts will soar from between 210,000 and 230,000 in 2022 to as many as 4 million by 2030. Many of these potential new subscribers currently do not own a car. In January 2022, Berylls’ Vehicle-as-a-Service (VaaS) survey of 2,040 German consumers found that 13 percent of today’s non-car users would be interested in VaaS, adding 1.3 million people to the market.

On average, current subscription customers are between seven and eight years younger than car buyers, and their wish to own a car is being replaced by a desire for convenience and flexibility. Increasingly, these consumers are demanding a highly digital product offering and the kind of customer experience they have come to expect from the likes of Amazon, Zalando and Netflix.

Car subscription ticks all the critical boxes from their point of view. Vehicles are often available straightaway from an existing fleet, within minutes of ordering online. This is a welcome contrast to purchased cars, which can take as long as a year to be delivered because of chip shortages and other supply-chain issues. Typically, it’s a short-term commitment, where instead of being locked into a multi-year credit or leasing contract, customers can opt for a minimum period of as little as one month.

Authors
FLORIAN PETER

Partner

Antonella Giese

Product Manager

Standing out among subscription offers

Not surprisingly, Europe’s subscription market is becoming increasingly crowded, with carmakers such as Volvo and VW competing with rental agencies and a growing range of innovative start-ups.

What these different players and subscription models have in common is a shared challenge. To win in this market, you have to differentiate by delivering a stellar, fully-digitalized customer experience as well as having the right vehicle offering and monthly rate.

We have identified five customer “moments of truth” which together deliver the kind of experience that people expect when they take out a subscription. The common theme connecting these moments is digitalization, in a market where customers assume they can select and pay for a vehicle entirely online with no need to phone a dealer or see the car.

Simply providing a standard online service won’t be enough to differentiate your offer from the competition. The winners in this race will be those companies which build the right digitalized features into their subscription platform – and build them well – to deliver a truly bespoke customer experience.

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Five-star service

Subscribers need to be “wowed” by the superb, transparent digital experience they enjoy from the instant that they sign up. It is not just the absence of hidden costs for wear and tear and other small-print items that they should notice. More positively, all the most successful subscription offers make the customer feel pampered with a premium service, whether they are providing a white-glove delivery or an immediate answer to a technical query via the helpdesk email. Satisfy the subscriber by paying attention to the detail of retail and they won’t mind paying a bit extra, so long as the fees are clear and part of the upfront bundle.

Hassle free

The last thing subscription customers want is responsibility for the familiar headaches of car ownership, from tax and insurance to tires, maintenance and repairs. These items are all included in the typical “hassle free” package, while in future even electric charging could be billed as part of the subscription deal, saving customers the trouble of paying as they drive.
They also don’t want to spend time making very detailed choices about the kind of car they want. For example, it’s common for subscribers only to be given the main choices which are fun to select, such as brand and color. Subscribers also expect instant or at least extremely rapid delivery, including to the doorstep, in contrast to the current long waiting times for purchased cars, especially electric vehicles.

Match my lifestyle

Subscription services should be flexible enough to meet each customer’s personal needs and preferences. These might include anything from requiring a car just for the winter months, because the driver uses a bike in summer, to wanting to test a new model before committing to a purchase. For example, a recent survey for the UK’s What Car? magazine found that 45 percent of respondents thought they would be more likely to buy an electric vehicle if they could try it first on a subscription deal. Volkswagen is one company responding to this demand by launching its subscription offer with the new ID.3 and ID.4 electric vehicles.

Personalized experience

Subscribers may only be signing up for a few months, but providers still need to make the customer experience as personalized as possible. To that end, customers should be allowed to pre-load configurations so their selected car “knows” who they are as soon as they turn on the engine. Seats are adjusted, the radio is set to favorite channels, and the home address is installed in the sat nav. Providers should also add a human touch via a contact person the customer can email or call with key questions, such as scheduling a repair or changing tires. Customers also appreciate making it simple for them to install their own Spotify account by registering via a QR code rather than insisting on entering a complicated password.

Seamless checkout

Buying a car through a dealership is often frustratingly slow and complex, and even with online purchases, buyers can face an array of detailed, confusing options. Providers of car subscription services should strive to make their offering feel as easy as buying a pair of shoes online. That means a fully digital, streamlined process with no unnecessary form-filling, automated driver’s license verification, automated credit check/scoring, and only the need for a digital signature, enabling the customer to complete the subscription online, ideally in less than five minutes.

Conclusion: The road ahead for subscriptions – champions of the digital customer experience will be the winners

A clear strategic focus is essential for future champions in a subscription market that is becoming increasingly crowded. At present, too many entrants are in a gold-rush mood, pursuing an undifferentiated me-too approach for fear of missing out. Yet simply copying a relatively successful competitor’s subscription model won’t be enough to emerge as one of the winners. Our five moments of truth are critical for delivering the level of service that will give your subscription offer the edge, in a market where tomorrow’s champions will be fully digitalized and focused on delivering a superb customer experience.

The stony path to realizing the agent model

Munich, May 2022

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The stony path to realizing the agent model

Munich, May 2022
D

ecided to implement the agent model? What now?

In our recent publication „Dealer vs. Agent” we have concluded a draw (3:3) between the classic “Dealer Model” and the direct sales “Agency Model”. 

Nevertheless, it appears the Agent’s following is growing, not least due to the need to keep track with the cost efficiency of new, direct selling entrants. A desire to reap the benefits of digitalization and to cater to the customers’ expectations when it comes to a premium sales and service experience are other factors.

Authors
Arthur Kipferler

Managing Director UK

Dr. Jürgen Simon

Principal

Current Topic

Together with the evaluation of direct sales via agents as a new go-to-market model you must immediately ask “How can we make this transformation work?” To help we want to draw a potential path for a successful sales model transformation in this article.

Structure helps, so here is our three-step approach:

  1. Obtain full clarity across your whole organization about the targets of this transformation: what should the agent model deliver for your brand? And what are you willing to give up in return? Remember: There ain’t no free lunch…
  2. Plot the best path to the final target: It might ease implementation to scale up the agent model over time via regions, markets, brands, models, channels, etc – an optimized roll-out roadmap is a key success factor
  3. Fully understand and resource for the additional tasks and capabilities that are moved from retail to wholesale. This requires thinking through and realizing new capabilities, structures, processes and systems

1. Don’t start implementing without being clear about what you want to achieve – and how to pay for it

Direct sales can beat a dealer-based wholesale model on four dimensions – but you will have to pick your battles, not all of them can be at the same time:

  • A better customer experience by removing haggling from the process with fixed, centrally set and fully transparent prices. No wholesale organisation is prepared to deliver this overnight.
  • The direct customer relationship guarantees full data access for the OEM, which must be leveraged for better understanding of the customer and thus better addressing of needs and wishes through personalized offers. To achieve this a lot has to change in the sales organisation (customer journey, required systems, etc.).
  • Better price realization certainly will play a major role for many OEMs switching to the agent model. But as outlined in our previous article, avoiding intra-brand competition and increasing transaction prices, is not a given – competition with potentially more aggressive brands will still happen. And getting transaction prices right is a new capability.
  • Reducing the cost of retail certainly lures many brands towards the agent model. While this is possible in principle, keep in mind the transformation cost and set clear cost reduction targets by phase on your roadmap. And ensure that you move all the levers under your control in the right direction, including network density retail design & operating standards.

2. Find the best path to your final target picture

Like for every successful journey, finding the best route comes right after setting the destination. Nobody can realistically switch over a decade-old global go-to-market structure in one go – identifying the right steps and the best way to scale up is a key success factor. And there are a number of building blocks for this roadmap:

  • Markets are the obvious choice to scale the roll-out. Factors to consider here are certainly the respective regulatory frameworks, your volumes, existing dealer contracts and periods. Also consider the impact on achievement of the objectives: increasing price realization will be difficult if in a free-trade region like Europe some markets are becoming sources of discounted vehicles.
  • For which brands (or sub-brands) the agent model is to be introduced can be another tricky question. Brands (within groups) are often sharing showrooms, dealer sites and staff. Dealers and their staff will be quick to optimise their efforts to maximise their income – which can make a new agent system a still-born baby.
  • Model lines are being used as roadmap elements – but they can also create a risk for unintended incentives, that needs to be mitigated somehow.
  • Another major parameter is the channel Introducing the agent model at first only for sales via the OEM online channel might seem a feasible path – but certainly not without caveats. Dealers might focus on their own proprietary or 3rd party online channels. Unintended channel competition would replace the traditional intrabrand competition. And the arguments arising from leads showing up in both channels will strain the relationship.

3. Prepare well for the agent model affecting your sales (and other) operations

Figure 1

Implementing any direct sales model inevitably leads to a shift of tasks from the former dealer to the OEM across the whole customer journey, as shown in Figure 1. OEMs have to take on new and complex tasks, such as pricing or inventory planning – with on the retail level have much higher frequency and granularity that what NSC and regional staff are used to from their matching wholesale tasks. Process performance and integration with the agents must be excellent from the switch-over date to achieve a seamless customer journey.

  • Lead Generation: While already a joint task of OEMs and dealers, a higher involvement of the OEM is likely, after shifting to the agent model. Nevertheless, the OEM remains heavily limited to digital lead generation. Since effective local physical lead generation and lead management continues to be success-critical you must avoid that agents reduce their activities, in the false belief that agents can exclusively rely on their OEM for lead generation.
  • Test Drive: They will remain important for many prospects – not least for the many first time BEV buyers over the next ten years. It will be critically important to deliver seamless integration between booking in the OEM’s digital sphere and execution by the agent. The efficient provision of demo cars for use by the agents also needs a carefully crafted system.
  • Offer: The shift of the offer responsibility from the former dealer to the OEM is one of the key changes in agency model. The OEM as the contracting party suddenly has to provide pricing up to thousands of times per day – instead of the quarterly campaign pricing they provided in the dealer system. Or move to a rigid fixed pricing approach that will inevitably weaken competitiveness or price realization.  

Financing and Digital Services remain largely unchanged, since they are widely in OEM hands already today. The Used Car Business will largely remain under control of the agents.

Of course, in addition to the tasks along the customer journey, there are also new or changed tasks for the OEM around agent steering, interaction management, data management, etc. which require careful setup before the switch-over – from the organisation design along the steering, process, and structural dimension to the design and creation of the supporting IT systems and not ending at recruiting and onboarding the additional staff.

The Take-Aways

It all starts with the objectives – it is crucial to make the transition for the right reasons. Ensure alignment across your whole organisation, once on the way it will be really difficult to shift priorities. Strictly guard your target hierarchy also in interim stages – an improved customer experience cannot be expected if different sales models have to co-exist under the same retail rooftop. Be more than aware of the additional tasks for the wholesale level – it will in essence also become your retail level. And expecting immediate cost reduction effects in a transition phase with increasing structural costs can only lead to disappointment.

Most importantly, keep putting yourself in your customers’ shoes: you need to deliver a customer experience where OEM and agent work hand in hand, where online and offline touch-points are well-connected. In an agent model it will always be the OEM that is in the driver seat, using the agents as extended arms into the local markets. This orchestration across the omnichannel system requires clear governance and effective steering since – unfortunately – objectives between agents and OEMs are not always aligned.

Keep all this in mind when you are designing the details of your future agent system – it is not just a new dealer contract you are about to implement.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Arthur Kipferler (1963) started his career in 1989 at the Boston Consulting Group, where he consulted for 13 years in the automotive industry. After consulting, Arthur Kipferler held senior management positions at Toyota in Europe and the U.S. From 2013 to 2014, he was global head of the BMW Group’s Future Retail program. Subsequently, he had leading roles in strategy, corporate planning and transformation management at Jaguar Land Rover in Coventry, UK. Arthur Kipferler complements the expertise of the Berylls partner team in the fields of market & customer, technologies, sales, and digitalization, as well as in the development and implementation of corporate, product, and regional strategies.

Mechanical engineering, production engineering, at the Technical University of Munich (TUM); MBA in Strategy, Marketing and Organizational Behavior at INSEAD Business School, France.

QUARTERLY INDEX REBALANCING Q2 2022

Munich, May 2022

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QUARTERLY INDEX REBALANCING Q2 2022

Munich, May 2022
F

ew things shape modern life as much as individual mobility. Be it as an expression of freedom and individuality, or as an economic driver. 

To reflect this, we have developed the Solactive Berylls LeanVal Automobility Leaders 100 Index – the AUTO100. It tracks the performance of the 100 most relevant publicly listed automobility players worldwide. By design, the AUTO100 covers the industry’s entire value chain – from vehicle manufacturers and
suppliers, to dealer groups, and providers of mobility services or infrastructure.


Rebalancing updates

Currently there are several major effects impacting the global capital markets. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the global markets are seeing major ripple effects across industries. Recent gas cut-offs in Eastern Europe could signal future shortages in other nations, leading to a persistent increase in prices as countries attempt to distance themselves from Russia.

 

Can’t wait to read more? Download the Insight now!

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QUARTERLY INDEX REBALANCING, MAY 2022 [1MB]
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Authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

Berylls Group CEO

Malte Broxtermann

Principal

Andreas Oesinghaus

Associate

Björn Simon

Consultant

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) is CEO of Berylls Group, an international group of companies providing professional services to the automotive industry.

His responsibilities include accelerating the transformation of luxury and premium OEMs, with a particular focus on digitalization, big data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Dr. Jan Burgard is also responsible for the implementation of digital products at Berylls and is a proven expert for the Chinese market. Dr. Jan Burgard started his career at the investment bank MAN GROUP in New York. He developed a passion for the automotive industry during stopovers at an American consultancy and as manager at a German premium manufacturer.

In October 2011, he became a founding partners of Berylls Strategy Advisors. The top management consultancy was the origin of today’s Group and continues to be the professional nucleus of the Group. After studying business administration and economics, he earned his doctorate with a thesis on virtual product development in the automotive industry.

Sustainability: A framework for extending value

Munich, May 2022

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Sustainability: A framework for extending value

Munich, May 2022
A

utomotive COOs know environmental, social and economic considerations are the new license to operate – but making sustainability the guiding principle also creates value.

Driven by environmental legislation and customer demand, sustainability
is transforming the automotive industry. Carmakers are shifting from making
fossil fuel engines to vehicles powered by electric motors, and this profound
change has forced OEMs and their suppliers to transform the operational processes they have honed over decades.

However, to meet the ambitious emissions reductions targets set by governments and by OEMs themselves, it is not only the end product that must
change. As we identified in our COO Agenda, sustainability has far-reaching
industrial implications and must now be the guiding principle throughout automotive production and supply chains

To find out more, download our in-depth analysis!

Berylls Insight
Sustainability: A Framework for extending value
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Authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

Executive Partner

Timo Kronen

Partner

Peter Trögel

Principal

Philipp Enderle

Senior Associate

Florian Müller

Associate

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Timo Kronen (1979) is partner at Berylls Group with focus on operations. He brings 17 years of industry and consulting experience in the automotive industry. His focus is on production, development and purchasing as well as supplier task forces. Some of his recent projects include: Restructuring of the Procurement Function (German Sports Car OEM), Supplier Task Force for an Onboard Charger (German Premium OEM), Strategy Development for the Component Production (German Premium OEM).

Before joining Berylls, Timo Kronen worked at PwC Strategy&, Porsche Consulting Group and Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG. He holds a diploma degree in industrial engineering from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT).

Nissan would save 30MN € in media budget per year with Hyundai’s marketing efficiency in Germany alone

Munich, April 2022

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Nissan would save 30MN € in media budget per year with Hyundai's marketing efficiency in Germany alone

Munich, April 2022

M

arketing efficiency, measured by the amount of budget needed to reach conversions within the marketing and sales funnel, is a critical success factor for OEMs.

We analyzed different OEMs concerning their marketing efficiency, by comparing the media budgets they spend to achieve certain levels of website visits, started configurations, finished configurations, and vehicle sales.

What we found is that the budget needed to reach a comparable funnel performance differs dramatically between OEMs. Having a more detailed comparison between Hyundai and Nissan, for example, shows that Nissan would need to spend roughly 9 times as much to reach the same number of finished configurations as Hyundai.

The conclusion we draw is that marketing efficiency can be improved by viewing marketing performance more holistically across all channels. While often, there is still too much focus on Paid Media as a silo, it is critical to concentrate on the combination of all marketing activities and view the entire funnel performance.

Improved targeting, an outstanding touchpoint experience and an optimized media mix are the key to more efficient media spend. Revisiting your Paid Earned Shared Owned (PESO) dashboard to uncover and focus on the most successful funnel will help you achieve more for less.

To find out more, download our in-depth analysis!

Berylls Insight
Nissan would save 30MN € in media budget per year with Hyundai's marketing efficiency in Germany alone
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Authors
Jonas Wagner

Partner

Sascha Kurth

Principal

Nikolas Schoenenwald

Associate

Lukas Koch

Associate

Henri Laux

Consultant

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Sascha Kurth (1987) is a Principal at Berylls Mad Media, the Sales & Marketing Transformation unit of Berylls Group, a group of companies specializing in the automotive industry. He is an expert in building KPI & data-driven sales- and marketing-organizations and can look back on many years of experience in data-driven marketing and e-commerce environments.

Sascha Kurth has been advising automobile manufacturers in a global context since 2013. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of goal-oriented sales & marketing planning, data management platforms & customer data platforms, e-commerce platforms, programmatic advertising, customer relationship management, smart KPIs and management dashboards.

Before joining Berylls Mad Media, he supported leading OEMs, e-mobility start-ups and fast moving consumer goods manufacturers in their sales and marketing transformation for PricewaterhouseCoopers

Einige Player desorientiert, andere sehr weit

München, April 2022

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Einige Player desorientiert, andere sehr weit

München, April 2022

Über den Zwang der Autobranche, sich mit Metaverse zu beschäftigen

Autor
Dr. Jan Burgard

CEO

Metaverse als Lieblingswort der Technikbranche

Die digitale Welt ist auch für die Autobranche interessant, wenn nicht sogar für den Kapitalmarkt verpflichtend. „Meine Empfehlung: Man muss sich damit beschäftigen und den Grundsatz verstehen, was es für das eigene Geschäftsmodell bedeuten soll.“ Das heißt: Nicht nur Gewinne, sondern auch Kostenersparnisse berücksichtigen. Die Entwicklung sieht Burgard dennoch mit Skepsis: „Es gibt nicht wenige unzufriedene Menschen, die ihr Leben virtuell aufzuwerten versuchen.“

Jetzt Podcast anhören:

Quelle: Börse hören.
https://www.brn-ag.de/40389

Über den Autor

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) ist CEO der Berylls Group, einer internationalen und auf die Automobilitätsindustrie spezialisierten Unternehmensgruppe.

Sein Aufgabengebiet umfasst die Transformation von Luxus- und Premiumherstellern, mit besonderen Schwerpunkten auf Digitalisierung, Big Data, Start-ups, Connectivity und künstliche Intelligenz. Dr. Jan Burgard verantwortet bei Berylls außerdem die Umsetzung digitaler Produkte und ist ausgewiesener Spezialist für den Markt China.

Dr. Jan Burgard begann seine Karriere bei der Investmentbank MAN GROUP in New York. Die Leidenschaft für die Automobilitätsindustrie entwickelte er während Zwischenstopps bei einer amerikanischen Beratung und als Manager eines deutschen Premiumherstellers.

Im Oktober 2011 komplettierte er die Gründungspartner von Berylls Strategy Advisors. Die Top-Management-Beratung ist die Basis der heutigen Group und weiterhin der fachliche Nukleus aller Einheiten.

An das Studium der Betriebs- und Volkswirtschaftslehre, schloss sich die Promotion über virtuelle Produktentwicklung in der Automobilindustrie an.

VAAS: ANOTHER HOLE IN THE SINKING SHIP OF AUTOMOTIVE AFTERSALES?

Munich, April 2022

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VaaS: Another hole in the sinking ship of automotive afersales?

Munich, April 2022

W

ith Vehicle as a Service (VaaS) expected to increase its market share by close to 33% by 2025, OEMs need to get ready for the impact on aftersales

The global aftersales business – parts sales and maintenance services
through the dealer network – is a major profit pool for automotive OEMs and
dealers. It accounts for as much as 40% of the overall profit of some carmakers
and large, full-range dealerships.

How did aftersales become such a stable cash cow? This is mainly attributable
to the fact that for vehicles under warranty, OEMs have close to no competition
for the service and care of the cars they sell as most customers remain loyal
to the manufacturer they bought the vehicle from. Once cars are passed on to
their second or third owners, OEMs increasingly face the competition of the independent aftermarket (IAM) – repair shops offering cheaper labor rates and
parts to customers who are more price sensitive.

To find out more, download our in-depth analysis!

Berylls Insight
VaaS: Another hole in the sinking ship of automotive aftersales?
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Authors
Paul Kummer

Partner

Björn Simon

Consultant

Paul-Alexander Bures

Consultant

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Paul Kummer (1983) joined Berylls Strategy Advisors, an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, as a partner in October 2021. He is an automotive downstream expert.

He has been advising automotive manufacturers in a global context since 2010. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of sales and aftersales. His other areas of expertise include growth strategy development, business model development, portfolio optimization and digital transformation.

Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked for Monitor Deloitte and Accenture.

Paul received his MBA from WHU Otto Beisheim School of Management and his Industrial Engineering degree from DHWB Mosbach.

Quo Vadis, China: From bad to worse? Where German innovation leadership is heading in the biggest automotive market

Munich, June 2022

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Quo Vadis, China: From bad to worse? Where German innovation leadership is heading in the biggest automotive market

Munich, June 2022

I

n our recent viewpoint on NEVs in China we looked at China’s vital first-mover advantages in battery cell production and charging infrastructure and how critical it is for German and other foreign OEMs not to rely on their previous and current success with ICE vehicles.

There is no other way to put it: Chinese NEVs are leaving traditional German car brands far behind in the NEV sector, and not only in sales growth. Mainland customers are also giving Chinese NEVs rave reviews, as Berylls’ Big Data research reveals.

So, a swift reaction by German OEMs should be top of their CEOs’ agendas, in order to win back customer approval for their electric models and compete more effectively with China’s NEV start-ups. The following sales numbers in 2021 show the dramatically changing composition of China’s NEV market:

Authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

Berylls Group CEO

Willy Wang

Managing Director China

Hongtao Wei

Senior Associate

Lois Yang

Lead Analyst

  • Xpeng sold 98,155 units, an increase of 275.2% YoY
  • NIO sold 91,429 NEVs, an increase of 109.1% YoY
  • Li Auto sold 90,491 NEVs, an increase of 177.4% YoY

In contrast:

  • VW Group delivered approximately 119,000 NEVs, an increase of 128% YoY (Nota bene: in 2021, the entire ID series sold 70,625 vehicles in China, missing the targeted 80,000 to 100,000 units)
  • BMW sold approximately 48,000 NEVs, an increase of 69.6% YoY
  • Mercedes-Benz’s NEV sales performance in China last year was also not great. The company sold only 6,098 of its main NEV model EQC, while its recently introduced EQA and EQB models had total China sales of just 327 and 473 vehicles respectively

NEV Sales in China – Chinese Startups vs. German OEMS

Now to be entirely fair: Each of the German OEMs mentioned above are coming up with numerous new NEVs that are entering the Chinese market this year. Volkswagen and Audi for instance are introducing the VW ID.5 and the Q5 e-tron this year.
Mercedes-Benz customers can prepare for a double debut: EQS and EQE are both celebrating their world premiere this year in China.
BMW goes even further: five pure electric products will be presented to the Chinese market: the BMW i3 (launched March 31st already), iX, iX3, i4 and i7.
Most of these models come with significant technological innovations and improvements that don’t just demonstrate a step forward under the hood but also at least equally important in China, visible for the customer in terms of a more “techie interior feeling” inside of the car.

The game of tag goes on

However, NEVs are just the start of where we see a gap opening up between German and Chinese OEMs. The next area where German OEMs will need to catch up is already emerging: ICVs (Intelligent Connected Vehicles), a new collective term that stands for deep integration of connectivity and autonomous driving. And the risk is imminent that Chinese ICV players will repeatedly outcompete their German competitors.

During the recent „Two Sessions“ (the National People’s Congress and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference), ICV and autonomous driving were one of the hot topics for the automotive industry. New laws and regulations were approved to promote the faster development of ICVs, with special emphasis on the implementation of autonomous driving.

How the Chinese walk the talk

ICVs are yet another case where one can see the advantage enjoyed by new Chinese players that can keep up with the dynamics of national policies and make rapid responses and adjustments. While traditional car companies are still studying „digital transformation and software defined vehicles“, these new Chinese players are already introducing them. Meanwhile, they have shifted their attention to ICV hardware and software upgrades for connectivity and autonomous driving functions.

For instance, the NIO ET7 has seven times the computational power of Tesla’s Hardware 3.0 (HW3.0), the US company’s AI self-driving hardware, released in 2019, which is deployed in the latest Tesla models. NIO’s Adam supercomputing platform within ET7 uses four NVIDIA Orin chips, with a total computational power of 1016 total operations per second (TOPS). In contrast, the computational power of Tesla’s HW3.0 is 144 TOPS.

Chinese players are also pioneering new sensors. For instance, Xpeng’s P5 uses a fusion of millimeter wave radar, camera and Lidar, while NVIDIA’s Xavier is used for autonomous driving (called XPilot), which can provide 30 TOPS of computational power. Equipped with twin Lidar sensors, the Xpeng P5 can deploy navigation-guided piloting (NGP) in urban environments. Moreover, the car roof is equipped with solar panels, which can provide 62W charging

Not a pure spec competition

But are Chinese players paying so much attention to ICVs, in particular spec and functionalities, as a means to extend their spec lists beyond their competition? Probably not.
It is more likely to be because they truly understand that “customer centricity” and digitalization go hand in hand. Customer demands are more diverse than ever before. It is not enough to offer just a digital customer interface with rich functions; in addition, timely software updates and rapid system upgrades are essential to react to these diverse and changing demands. All these capabilities require a strong technological base.

Even a traditional car with some smart functionality requires powerful hardware at the start of production (SOP). But updates are very limited and usually come with a facelift or at least require a physical service appointment. This means that car features are rigid, with little room for changes. Moreover, there is no application development ecosystem, with only a small range of applications developed by OEMs or Tier 1 suppliers.

The only way forward is upwards. Upstream.

However, with the advent of ICVs, hardware has become very powerful at the time of release as it has to have the ability to support future software updates. Software can be continuously updated remotely (over the air, or OTA) and new software functions added at any time (functions on demand, or FOD), while third party partners can engage in the development of software. The car’s functions and applications will be richer, since vehicle features are no longer rigid and can be extended via connection to the cloud. Chinese players have got the message that the accompanying hardware development cannot be ignored and must, more than ever, be a top priority.
To be fair, German players have not been sitting idle either.

For instance, the BMW iX is equipped with two Mobileye EyeQ5H chips, which are mainly used for visual perception processing. The computational power of a single chip is 24 TOPS. Two Intel Denverton 8-core processors, together with EQ5H, are responsible for data fusion, decision-making and planning.

However, according to BMW, this system only supports L3 level autonomous driving, as L4 / L5 levels require up to three EQ5H chips together with five Lidar sensors and seven cameras. A gap still exists with the current BMW iX configuration, which only has six sensing cameras, four surround cameras, one Lidar sensor, five millimeter wave radars and 12 ultrasonic radars.
VW Group, Mercedes-Benz and Audi do not make public as many specifics as BMW and are still at the planning stage. Audi has launched the Artemis Project, which will focus on new technologies including electrification and high-level autonomous driving. Its first model is due for release in 2024, with no further detailed information.
The same goes for Volkswagen, which will first launch Trinity, a flagship model to be produced in Wolfsburg and released in 2026. Again, there is no detailed information about the car.

Mercedes-Benz is cooperating with NVIDIA and has announced that the next generation of its models will use an NVIDIA platform, which will be launched in 2024.
It seems, therefore, that Chinese players are already far ahead when it comes to ICVs. They are putting out finished models while German players are still deciding what to do. Viewed from this angle, the traditional German players appear much slower than new Chinese competitors, which of course has a lot to do with the Germans’ scale, legacy and culture.

Can traditional German players regain innovation leadership?

As customer demands become more unpredictable and competition increasingly fierce, staying ahead in China will become the overarching objective. This is why, in the digital era, customer centricity will remain the common key value for every NEV player. A genuine mindset shift from product-orientation to customer-orientation should be the starting point for all moves by all players along the value chain.


To be specific: What do customers want? How can OEMs make customer demands transparent? How can they translate customers’ expectations into real products and services? And how can OEMs systematically deploy customer requests along the entire value chain, to meet different individual needs? To answer these questions, OEMs need data.

Data – the alpha and the omega

We believe that data fusion, analysis and processing will greatly assist OEMs in creating transparency around present and future customer needs. It is therefore critical to design a data strategy and deploy dual systems for data analysis and action derivation.
From the outset, data is fundamental in creating strategy. Customer data is required to forecast future customer needs, demands and preferences, so that OEMs can develop a proactive rather than a reactive strategy. The entire value chain needs to be covered by the strategy which has customer-centricity at its core, hence the importance of data collection and analysis.

It is then time to review the strategy and proposed actions. Firstly, data needs to be collected, analyzed and processed in a modular way, so it can be classified into categories such as marketing, retail, customer interface, and products. Regular reviews and analysis of the collected data are required to determine the difference between customer expectations and the products or services provided by OEMs.
Secondly, it’s time to plan & start actions based on the results from each category, which need to be distributed to the relevant departments. Using this data, each department then needs to find solutions and actions that close the gap between customer reviews (for cars on the road and customers’ demands for future models) and adapt the existing strategy in the short, medium and long term. Deep integration of upstream and downstream functions is more essential than ever.

A plea for a new virtue – proactivity

If there is one lesson to be learned from two years of COVID-19, resource shortages and now war, unfortunately, it is that OEMs can’t rely on strategies built on hypotheses and leadership experience. Instead, traditional German players should anticipate potential shocks, size up new situations, reposition themselves and master the rules of the new game as soon as possible. This change needs to happen in a structured way, rather than reactively following the trend. In particular, it’s time for them to rethink their whole value chain, redefine cars and be game-changers in the digital era when it comes to setting new trends and getting ahead of China’s agile and aggressive NEV start-ups.

About the authors
Dr. Jan Burgard

Dr. Jan Burgard (1973) is CEO of Berylls Group, an international group of companies providing professional services to the automotive industry.

His responsibilities include accelerating the transformation of luxury and premium OEMs, with a particular focus on digitalization, big data, connectivity and artificial intelligence. Dr. Jan Burgard is also responsible for the implementation of digital products at Berylls and is a proven expert for the Chinese market.

Dr. Jan Burgard started his career at the investment bank MAN GROUP in New York. He developed a passion for the automotive industry during stopovers at an American consultancy and as manager at a German premium manufacturer. In October 2011, he became a founding partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors. The top management consultancy was the origin of today’s Group and continues to be the professional nucleus of the Group.

After studying business administration and economics, he earned his doctorate with a thesis on virtual product development in the automotive industry.

Willy Wang

Willy Lu Wang (1981) joined Berylls Strategy Advisors in 2017. He started his career participating in the graduate program of Audi focusing on production planning. After stations at another strategy consultancy as well as being the strategy director for a German Tier-1 supplier, he is now responsible for the China business at Berylls.

He has a broad consulting focus working for all clients in China, whether they are JVs, WOFEs or pure local players. He is also responsible for the development of AI and Big Data products dedicated towards the Chinese market further strengthening the Berylls End-to-End strategy and product development capabilities.

Wang studied Electronics & Information Technology with focus on Systems and Software Engineering and Control Theory at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

Flexibility is king – how to control future production networks

Munich, March 2022

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Flexibilty is king - how to control future production networks

Munich, March 2022
O

EMs know they need more flexibility in production – and soon – to meetdemand for greater individualization and better cost competitiveness. Here’s how...

Automakers’ need for production network flexibility has never been more urgent. Demand for customized vehicles is growing at the premium end of the
market, while at the volume end the opposite force prevails, and product complexity is being cut for cost reasons. Development cycles are growing ever-shorter, resulting in more frequent production-line changes, and increased geopolitical volatility is affecting demand and global supply chains. The last point has come to the fore in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, causing shortages from auto suppliers there.

Faced with these disruptive forces on both the demand and the supply side,
OEMs are taking more radical positions when it comes to the degree of product
individualization they offer, as well as what level of value creation will be kept inhouse. As a result, new production archetypes will emerge that will shape OEMs’ future manufacturing networks.

To read more, download our full report!

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Flexibility is king - how to control future production networks
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Authors
Heiko Weber

Partner

Timo Kronen

Partner

Philipp Stütz

Principal

Hendryk Pausch

Senior Associate

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Heiko Weber (1972), Partner at Berylls Strategy Advisors, is an automotive expert in operations.

He started his career at the former DaimlerChrysler AG, where he worked for seven years and was most recently responsible for quality assurance and production of an engine line.

Since moving to Management Engineers in 2006, he has been contributing his experience and expertise to projects for automotive manufacturers as well as suppliers in development, purchasing, production and supply chain. Heiko Weber has extensive experience in the development of functional strategies in these areas and also possesses the operational management expertise to promptly catch critical situations in the supply chain through task force operations or to prevent them from occurring in the first place.

As a partner of Management Engineers, he accompanied the firm’s integration first into Booz & Co. and later into PwC Strategy&, where he was most recently responsible for the European automotive business until 2020.

Weber holds a degree in industrial engineering from the Technical University of Berlin and completed semesters abroad at Dublin City University in Marketing and Languages.