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V STARTUPS ON THE STOCK MARKET – A JUSTIFIED HYPE?
In the last five years, many new EV players entered the stock market. Companies like NIO, Rivian, Lucid, VinFast, and XPENG are among the firms in the hunt for fresh capital to fund their ambitious endeavors. Initially, investors seemed to be on the edge of their seats, eagerly anticipating who was going to follow in the footsteps of EV pioneer Tesla. When Rivian went public at the Nasdaq stock exchange in November 2021, it resonated like an earthquake in automotive circles. At an initial valuation of USD 66.5 bn, they were valued at a similar level to established players Mercedes-Benz and BMW, only two months after producing their first ever customer-ready car.
However, despite this initial hype around newly emerging EV players, the recent performance of Rivian and its EV-peers on the stock market is quite underwhelming. While the rise of new electric vehicle manufacturers seemed very attractive for investors from the get-go, popular companies like Rivian, Lucid or Fisker are currently valued at less than 20% of their initial valuation. This underperformance of many emerging BEV players on the stock market raises question marks. Was the hype around EV startup stocks justified?
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Munich, March 2024
UROPEAN POLICYMAKERS DEFINE ELECTRIC MOBILITY AS THE FUTURE.
Governments in Europe unanimously share the vision that electrifying the vehicle fleet is the best way to achieve a more sustainable future. With its new regulation, which states that from 2035 all new cars and vans registered will have to be zero-emission versions, the European Union is a global front-runner in the adoption of electric vehicles.
However, this places OEMs under a lot of pressure to update their vehicle portfolio within a relatively short time span. In order to maintain a profitable business case, nearly all OEMs initially focused on producing rather pricy high-end SUVs. Cost parity between comparable new BEV and ICE vehicles has still not been achieved in most cases and, in particular, affordable vehicles in the smaller segments are yet to be launched. For instance, FIAT is offering the electrified version of its 500 with a premium of 78% and even Jaguar’s high-end SUV F-Pace is one third cheaper than its electrified brother (according to UK list prices). This pricing policy limits the overall size of the potential buyer group and prevents the BEV market from moving from early adopters to the mass market.
Source: AutoTrader as of 17.01.2024
After some initial strong growth – also fueled by high government tax incentive schemes – the relative market share growth of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is gradually slowing down across Europe.
TOTAL PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION VOLUME EU5
Increasing relative share of BEV in EU5 registration volume (2017-2023), (registered cars in thousands)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, ACEA
Whilst the share of BEV registrations across all drivetrain types is steadily increasing for the top 5 EU markets (14% in 2023), the momentum of growth is slowing down (+23% in 2023 vs. +103% in 2021 for the top 5 EU markets). BEV customer subsidies are being increasingly reduced in many EU markets (e.g., subsidies for corporate and private cars in Germany were terminated at the end of 2023).
BEV PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION VOLUME PER EU5 MARKET
Increasing size of registered BEVs in EU5 (2017-2023), (registered cars in thousands)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, ACEA
BEV PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATION SHARE PER EU5 MARKET
Increasing relative share of BEVs per EU5 market registration volume (2017-2023), (all figures in %)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, ACEA
We identify the BEV used car market as one of the key reasons for this slowdown, combined with affordability issues due to challenging economic conditions with high interest rates.
Used BEVs are performing significantly worse than ICEs throughout top European markets with regard to their residual values. On average across Europe, more than 50% of the initial value is lost after an average of three years and 60,000 kilometers.
RESIDUAL VALUE PER DRIVE TRAIN
Comparison of residual values along drive trains (BEV, Diesel, petrol), (all figures in %)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, Autovista24, part of the Autovista Group
The situation is leading to a significant excess value loss for BEVs compared to ICEs, especially when factoring in the higher initial new car prices of BEVs.
In Germany, on average BEVs had an excess residual value loss of 13% compared to petrol vehicles in December 2023. The rest of Europe’s top 5 markets displayed similar tendencies with excess residual value losses ranging from 13% (Spain) to 21% (Italy) when comparing BEVs to petrol vehicles. Apart from Spain and France, used cars in all top 5 European markets have lost drastically in residual value. In the UK, the residual value of BEVs plummeted dramatically from 63% to 40% in the course of 2023.
Based on an average new BEV list price of EUR 43,529 as stated by Autovista Group for Germany in December 2023, the absolute amount of excess loss of an average BEV compared to an average petrol vehicle is 13%, which equals EUR 5,659 compared to the initial list price. Looking at a 36-month lease contract with a total of 60,000 km, this would make a BEV EUR 157 more expensive per month compared to a petrol car, just to cover the excess loss and excluding interest effects, in addition to the higher lease installments due to the higher list price.
Likewise, lower residual values also affect new car lease contracts, as providers will try to pass on higher depreciation to their customers. An analysis conducted by Transport & Environment in 2023 reveals that across major European markets, leasing companies charged consumers 57% more to lease an EV compared to an equivalent petrol model.
RESIDUAL VALUE PER DRIVE TRAIN AND EXCESS LOSS IN COMPARISON TO PETROL
Comparison of residual values per car of BEV vs. Petrol and Diesel in DE, (rounded figures, December 2023)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, Autovista24, part of the Autovista Group
The calculation is even more alarming when the initial incentives funded by taxpayers’ money are also taken into account. The current market & technology immaturity is turning out to be a gigantic value burn.
Just assuming the gap between the residual value developments of BEVs and petrol vehicles remains constant in the future, the additional value loss of all the 524,000 BEVs registered in Germany in 2023 in three years’ time compared to petrol vehicles will equal EUR 2.99 billion. The figure surpasses the total of German BEV tax incentives (BAFA environmental bonus) of EUR 2.4 billion for all eligible BEVs in 2023.
COMPARISON OF LOSS IN RESIDUAL VALUE FOR BEVS AND SUBSIDIES IN GERMANY
Excess in loss in residual value of BEVs outpaces environmental bonus in DE in 2023
Note: Excess in residual value loss as aggregation of excess loss of residual value per BEV to petrol (13%) of 524.000 registered BEVs at avg. list price of 43.529 EUR in 2023 in Germany
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, Autovista24, part of the Autovista Group
The value losses become even more apparent when comparing the residual values of similar BEV and ICE models:
Upfront price difference based on stock advertised on AutoTrader.co.uk
Source: autotrader.co.uk
In Germany, less than one third of new vehicles are bought by private customers. On the other hand, more than two thirds of all new cars are registered to corporate customers. The greatest share is the ‘true fleet’ segment, which comprises fleets of company cars, either for particular purposes or as an employee incentive. The second biggest segment comprises vehicles registered for tactical reasons by OEMs or their dealer networks, which are typically brought to the market later with discounts. Rental fleets also make up a relevant part of the total fleet.
Sales Split per channel in Germany in 2023 Total vs. BEV only
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors, KBA
According to information from Dataforce, there was a setback in electrification following the final ending of the environmental bonus (BAFA) in 2023. During the last few months, the bonus was only eligible for private customers, which explains the decrease in the corporate segment. In the private market, the BEV-related share of new registrations fell from 35% in December 2022 to just 11% in December 2023. The share of BEVs in fleet registrations also remains at a low level.
BEV trend in vehicle registrations over the last 24 months in Germany (in thousand)
Source: Dataforce
A large number of these vehicles are sold via lease contracts that are typically returned to the leasing company at the end of the contract. Based on information from Dataforce, in 2023, 29% of private BEV customers opted for a leasing offer while the overall share of private customers taking the leasing option was only 7.2%. In the fleet segment, the majority of vehicles are bought via lease contracts.
In total, that leaves a majority of the residual value risk accumulating with the financial services companies of OEMs (Captives) or independent (Non-Captive) leasing companies.
Automotive dealers and OEMs are therefore currently seeing a drastic decline in demand for used BEVs, which is placing further pressure on resale values. As long as residual values continue to decline, it is hard to make a positive business case for buying a new or almost new electric vehicle due to this value loss. Even the cheaper cost of operation – drastically depending on actual cost for electricity – cannot compensate for this loss.
In an interconnected model, these factors also have an impact on demand and the sales prices of new BEVs.
Looking at the current price discounts for new BEVs in Germany, it becomes apparent that OEMs and dealers will need to continue discounting BEVs in order to stimulate at least a certain level of demand. A recent analysis presented by the German newspaper Auto Motor und Sport based on price data from leading automotive platforms (carwow.de, meinauto.de, neuwagen24.de) shows that in January 2024 the average discount was 18% compared with an average discount of 21% in 2023. This point is especially interesting as environmental subsidies (BAFA) were terminated at the end of 2023. Therefore, OEMs and dealers within the German market are giving discounts at their own expense to offset the lack of a government bonus.
Discount comparison for selected BEV models in the German market
Source: carwow.de, meinauto.de, neuwagen24.de; all figures are rounded; last update: January 2024
From our perspective, there are several trends that reinforce one another, limiting the attractiveness of owning a BEV and potentially leading to a carnage in the BEV market in the coming months:
Overall, the outlook for OEMs, their Captives, leasing companies, and auto dealers can appear rather daunting in the next few years with regard to electrification. In order to stay profitable in the BEV market going forward, we at Berylls see several levers that need to be utilized in order to be successful. In our upcoming series, we will further deep-dive into these fields.
Featured Insights
n 2023 the hype around artificial intelligence (AI) and specifically GenAI reached its peak.
This can be seen in 2 major aspects. First, the valuation of leading AI companies like Microsoft or OpenAI went through the roof. OpenAI is in early talks to raise a fresh round of funding at a valuation at or above $100 billion¹. Second, the high number of projects that have been launched in the automotive industry across the entire value-chain created a high demand on AI expertise. Companies formed teams or complete organizations defining hundreds of use cases for launching pilot projects to increase the customer experience, create efficiency or support other strategic goals in their company & product strategy.
Berylls Digital & Technology serves as the center of competence AI within the Berylls group. Therefore, we are leveraging AI for our own business, working with customers on projects and observing market developments closely. Over the last 12 months we saw that companies tend to be more cautious with the implementation of GenAI at the beginning. While early pilot projects are often rolled out with standardized services of business software providers, e.g. copilots, later stage GenAI use cases are more customized and developed inhouse or with in cooperation with partners to target specific problems.
Successfully navigating through a plethora of potential use cases as well as implementing the most impactful ones necessitates a robust validation process and significant organizational change. The pace and extent of these transformations are influenced by a company’s strategic decision to either lead as an innovator and first mover or to adopt a fast follower approach. Drawing from this study and our experience in client engagements, we advocate for at least being an early adopter, particularly in integrating Copilots into standard enterprise software. Our observations from numerous projects highlight an immediate beneficial impact: the license costs per user are quickly offset by short-term efficiency gains. Proper integration and customization of these tools within existing processes can further enhance productivity and reduce labor requirements in specific roles.
At Berylls, we specialize in guiding automotive car makers and suppliers through their journey from initial exploratory ideation to becoming efficient, scaling organizations. Indeed, the potential of AI is immense in multiple fields of application, yet we also see a significant number of failed pilots & projects through our work with clients. We will discuss the reasons for failing in AI use cases in another Berylls insights edition in more detail. However, in this article we want to set the focus on an area where AI delivers a significant improvement on speed and efficiency for coding projects: The usage of GitHub Copilot by Microsoft in “real” software development projects.
The automotive industry is spending over 4 billion euros annually due to poor vehicle launches caused by ineffective project management, missing information, and late execution of measures. As a result, many vehicle launches end up in task force mode. Properly managing these task forces in stressful situations requires full focus, which is why efficient collaboration is essential. Nonetheless, modern processes are complex and multilayered dependencies across departments pose information asymmetries, leading to the distribution of outdated information and time inefficiencies.
Leveraging our decades of experience in managing task forces at Berylls, we have developed a solution to overcome these challenges. Together with our software development partner Avochoc, Berylls is launching “elyvate”, a digital task force solution custom-built for the automotive industry. This is our digital approach to optimize performance in project and shop floor management.
Our software as a service (SaaS) solution is the next level of task force management and focused on user-friendliness as well as simplicity, ensuring an intuitive experience. elyvate is designed to integrate seamlessly into your workflow, enhancing efficiency without the complexity. It offers an all-in-one reporting solution that includes automated KPI and measure tracking to optimize performance in project and shop floor management. elyvate allows to digitally steer task force projects with ease, proactively plan and follow up on KPIs, implement measures, as well as most importantly, track their efficiency.
Source: Berylls Strategy Adivsors
Through “elyvate”, Berylls provides our customers with a tool to address these challenges.
During the development phase we jointly decided to leverage AI development support tools as far as possible, not only to make the process more efficient but also to get hands on understanding of the advantages and challenges of these.
Using AI tools in a business context needs clear and robust legal governance model for using such applications. Particularly AI usage must comply with applicable laws and regulations as well as aspects like intellectual property (IP), data protection (GDPR), and business secrets become critical. We will cover this in detail in our latest newsletter. This is especially challenging since the local / regional regulations are just being updated to reflect the questions in IP and data protection.
Today we want to share our experiences leveraging GitHub Copilot by Microsoft.
Our experiences with GitHub and AI features:
Coding can often be a laborious and lengthy process. Nowadays, developers are perpetually seeking innovative methods to enhance their productivity, precision, and efficiency in programming. One tool of choice for development teams is GitHub.
GitHub is an AI-powered developer platform that allows developers to create, store, and manage their code.² Features like access control, bug tracking, software feature requests, task management, continuous integration, and wikis are included in the software. Acquired by Microsoft in 2018, the platform is now used by more than 50,000 organizations and 1.3 million paid subscribers, representing the most broadly facilitated AI developer tool worldwide.³
Introduced in late 2021, GitHub Copilot represents one of the latest innovations by GitHub. Marketed as an ‚AI pair programmer‘, Copilot employs AI to auto-generate code within your editor. It is accessible as an extension for Visual Studio Code, the JetBrains IDE suite, and Neovim, broadening its usability across different development environments.
GitHub Copilot is an innovative AI tool driven by OpenAI Codex, designed to improve the coding experience for developers. Its primary function is to propose code snippets based on the context within the file, such as function names, code comments, docstrings, file names, cursor position, and more. By simply pressing the Tab key, developers can accept these auto-generated proposals, which are derived from open-source code within GitHub’s public repositories. This AI tool is proficient in numerous common languages including TypeScript, Python, JavaScript, Ruby, among others.
One of the key aspects that sets GitHub Copilot apart from similar tools is the level of control it offers to the users. Unlike other products, GitHub Copilot empowers the user with the flexibility to accept or reject code suggestions, manually modify them, and explore different alternatives. As the user interacts with the tool, it gradually adapts to the coding style, leading to progressively refined and relevant suggestions over time.
A distinctive feature of GitHub Copilot, further differentiating it from other solutions, is its ability to comprehend natural language, encompassing both programming and human languages. This feature is especially beneficial for developers working with unfamiliar frameworks and libraries, as Copilot can navigate through open-source documentation quickly, reducing the need for manual searches.
To maximize the benefits of GitHub Copilot, it is recommended to divide the code into smaller functions, write effective comments and docstrings, and use meaningful names for function parameters. These practices aid Copilot in understanding your intent more accurately.
However, it is important to note that GitHub Copilot does not generate flawless code. While it strives to comprehend the developer’s intent, some proposals may not function as expected or even make sense. It does not test any of the code it suggests, which means the suggested code might not compile or run. Therefore, developers still need to meticulously review and test the code before assuming it’s usable.
In general, GitHub Copilot is likely the best autocomplete tool available, offering a wide array of solutions to problems beyond basic suggestions. The variety of proposals for a code snippet is impressive, often reducing the need to consult external sources like Stack Overflow.
Despite its capabilities, it is crucial to understand that GitHub Copilot is merely a tool and far from replacing human developers. You cannot depend solely on Copilot, and it is still up to the developer to accept the suggestions and make necessary modifications.
Let’s delve deeper into different examples:
GitHub Copilot is able to transform your comments into usable output (executable code), similar to the ChatGPT overlay. Simply by writing a prompt that describes the desired logic, Copilot can automatically generate code suggestions based on that description. As a programmer, you can then easily accept these suggestions with a press of the Tab key.
Consider, for instance, you are crafting a Python function and have included a comment detailing its intended functionality. For Copilot to generate high-quality code proposals, it is vital to write clear and precise comments and docstrings. Ambiguous or poorly written comments can pose a challenge for Copilot in accurately grasping your intended functionality.
GitHub Copilot can immensely cut time spend for coding, especially when it comes to speeding up the writing of repetitive code segments. When dealing with large blocks of standard code, simply providing a few examples of the desired pattern is enough. Copilot then efficiently handles the rest, streamlining the coding process.
As previously stated, GitHub Copilot does not perform testing on the code it generates. Nonetheless, it can be used to recommend tests that are compatible with your code implementation. This provides an effective way to quickly incorporate a test unit package. While it is still necessary to verify the logic and functionality of the code, using Copilot for this purpose offers a faster option compared to writing the test code entirely on your own.
This scenario is perhaps the most effective use of Copilot. It acts as a crucial aid for developers using an unfamiliar language or framework. Imagine, for example, you wish to create a specific function in a new programming language. The approach to coding can vary greatly based on the language you are using. Even if you have some proficiency in this new language, the autocomplete feature of Copilot remains a significant time-saving tool.
Our experienced developers have found great value in using Copilot while delving into languages they are not familiar with. Although Copilot’s suggestions may not always be perfect, they often accurately capture the basic syntax. Furthermore, it guides users towards common programming idioms, library functions, and more. Copilot can even function as a self-teaching tool for programmers, aiding in their learning process.
Developers frequently know precisely what needs to be done but sometimes overlook the finer details of the process. For example, they might need to normalize matrices or create complex functions with particular parameters. Copilot’s autocomplete feature enables developers to concentrate on the method, while Copilot handles the completion of the code. This capability saves developers valuable time, as they do not have to consult books or websites to look up methods.
Since copilot makes use of a lot of historical data, it also has an in depth understanding on which tools developers use. As tech evolves, so do the tools the developers use. Generally, the way of accomplishing certain tasks stays relatively consistent, with small changes in function names or syntax. As Copilot has insight to this, it can generate the correct code if guidance is given.
Much of the functionality in the software realm is possible, because computers adhering to specific sets of rules for communication, commonly known as protocols. Among the most prevalent protocols are RADIUS (for your ISP to grant internet access), CSMS (to communicate with electric vehicles), TCP/IP (for reliable data transmission over the internet), etc. While these protocols are thoroughly documented, they often encompass hundreds of pages, necessitating extensive reading for developers to implement them. Copilot, however, can adeptly predict the methods developers should use and accurately assist in implementing these protocols.
As copilot has context of the code, it is able to correctly predict which functions and variables need to be used for the next part of the code. This assists developers by reducing cross referencing in their own code base, allowing the development to be streamlined.
Hands-on Insights:
While it is not strictly necessary to do this before using Copilot, it is highly beneficial to define the purpose and objective, especially if you are new to the tool. Avoid diving into GitHub Copilot with a “let’s just see what happens” attitude. This could lead to confusion and prevent you from fully utilizing the tool’s capabilities. Once you have determined how you intend to use Copilot for your upcoming project, the subsequent steps will be much simpler.
Many coders utilize GitHub Copilot when they have a clear picture of what they want to create but might need to deal with a programming language they are not familiar with. Copilot then assists them in getting the syntax correct and understanding basic library functions.
GitHub Copilot is not a standard feature of many programming platforms and their editors. Therefore, you will need to register and install the extension before you can begin using it. The platform offers different subscription packages⁴, choose which option suits your needs best.
After installing the extension, Copilot will ask you to authorize the plugin by logging into GitHub. Once authorized, you should be automatically redirected back to the editor.
As you write, GitHub Copilot will start to automatically suggest autofill options based on the context. It is your decision whether to accept or reject these suggestions. If you are not satisfied with what Copilot is suggesting, you can always view other suggestions to see if they are more applicable.
It may take some time to get used to Copilot, but with more usage, you will become more comfortable with the suggestions as well as the Copilot building those based on your objective.
As mentioned earlier, Copilot is not flawless. Therefore, you cannot blindly accept the suggestions and assume they are perfect. You will probably need to make adjustments to the code. As always, you should run tests before incorporating the code into your project.
GitHub evaluated Copilot’s accuracy by reviewing a set of Python functions in open-source repositories. They removed the function bodies and asked Copilot to fill them in. Copilot correctly completed the functions 43% of the time on its first try. When Copilot was given 10 attempts, the code was correct 57% of the time.⁵ Our experiences were slightly better but still manual checks and adaptations are a must do.
While copilot can drastically improve a developer’s workflow, as it really shines with trivial repetitive tasks, this only holds when a developer can properly guide it. Copilot cannot solve new problems, but it can save hours in repetitive tasks and documentation reading.
Since the tool is always trying to suggest potential edits based on the code you build, it might not unleash its full potential. For example, in the hands of a strong developer, copilot is a tool that will save the developer hours of time. In the hands of an inexperienced developer, the suggestions may be unsecure and may cause the developer to take longer to complete a task as they would need to do more debugging than usual.
As the AI tool is trained with public data and code, discussions arose about potential copyright / IP infringement by GitHub CoPilot over the last months in the US. Dating back to a claim from November 2022, a judge looked into these claims which will have a significant impact on GitHub and other AI large language models (LLMs), but potentially also your generated code by the Copilot.
These claims represent developers’ allegations of the algorithmic reproduction of their source code by CoPilot, filed against GitHub, OpenAI, and Microsoft. Some cases have been dismissed, yet there is still a high risk of infringement. In fact, the judge allowed three damage claims so far, which gives room for more as well as anticipated changes to the services of Copilot in the future.
Do not miss this opportunity to revolutionize your business with AI technology! Take the first step towards a transformative journey and discover how our cutting-edge automotive reference projects at Berylls can enhance your business processes. Act now and contact us to explore a world of possibilities with AI – Let’s innovate together.
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We will cover governance models for AI usage in business context in detail in our latest newsletter.
About AvoChoc
At AvoChoc, since our inception in 2015, we have been dedicated to delivering unparalleled digital experiences that captivate audiences and elevate businesses across diverse sectors. Our expertise in experience development, blending artistic vision with technological prowess, allows us to create exceptional web designs and complex systems. Our diverse portfolio includes work in education, medical, children’s development, coding for kids, manufacturing, clean energy, electric vehicles, sports, and private security, highlighting our versatility and commitment to innovation.
We extend our services beyond technical solutions, providing business consulting and boasting an in-house team of UI/UX designers. This ensures holistic insight and design excellence in every project. Our dedication to exploring the latest tech, frameworks, libraries, and languages keeps us at the forefront of technology, enabling us to offer the most advanced and effective solutions to our clients.
About Berylls Digital & Technology
The Berylls Group unites expertise in strategy consulting, data-driven marketing transformation, venture building and equity investing. We focus exclusively on what we call the global automobility sector – because we believe that today’s automotive industry is about much more than the manufacturing and selling of cars.
Berylls Digital & Technology, for instance, is dedicated to the digital consulting & project execution and scaling of digital products. Our two focus areas are consulting in the area of software-defined vehicles (SDV) and the execution of software taskforce projects, safeguarding projects that are in distress. With our strong set of external partners, we are uniquely positioned to serve our customers, “but different”.
Our focus on digital innovation and its commitment to driving advancements in the automobility sector demonstrate our role as a transformative force in this industry, particularly through our technological and digital offerings.
Notes:
¹ Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-22/openai-in-talks-to-raise-new-funding-at-100-billion-valuation
² Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GitHub
³ Microsoft: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/events/FY-2024/earnings-fy-2024-q2.aspx
⁴ Github: https://github.com/features/copilot/plans
⁵ Medium: https://medium.com/codex/what-is-github-copilot-6c3e99ba7c41
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here is a lack of employees for the transformation towards e-mobility. Generative AI has the potential to close this gap and reduce costs at the same time.
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n the worldwide movement towards carbon neutrality Germany aims to reach 80% in renewable electricity share by 2030 from around 50% in 2023.
This increased share of renewable energies (wind, solar and hydro) also necessitates temporary storage of electric energy to stabilize the electric grid. A prominent and cost-effective way to increase storage capacity drastically and thereby stabilize energy supply is the integration of electric car batteries into the electricity grid. The method to not only charge car batteries from the electric grid, but also supply energy back from the car to households or factories through grid is known as V2G (vehicle to grid).
V2G serves as an alternative to other grid stabilization options such as pumped storage power plants, with few suitable locations left, or the significantly more expensive stationary battery storage. In the long run, commercial returns from V2G can reduce the total cost of ownership of an EV through reduction in charging and overall electricity bill.
The V2G score corresponds to the readiness of a country to utilize V2G potential. The most significant factors for the same are smart meter rollout (to enable bidirectional energy flow between EVs and grid) and share of V2G capable EVs in the fleet. The study shows that the V2G potential in most countries is not limited by smart meter roll-out, but the amount of available V2G capable vehicles. It also strikingly shows that Germany is significantly behind the leading nations in terms of V2G readiness. This is mainly due to a very low smart meter rollout in the country so far (around 1% of all household are equipped with a smart meter currently). The smart meter rollout in Germany was slowed down in the past by regulatory uncertainties and a lack of dynamic electricity pricing models requiring the smart meters. In the beginning of 2023, a new law came into place requiring a 95% smart meter rollout by 2032.
So far V2G has only been demonstrated through pilot projects and studies. For unleashing its true potential, both electrical and electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure of a country plays a prominent role. For example the amount of required charging points is increased, as vehicles serving as grid stabilizers block the charging point for this time.
If you want to discuss the opportunities and challenges that come with V2G, please feel free to contact Dr. Alexander Timmer.
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023 was a highly turbulent year for the Chinese auto market, which saw it engulfed in a vicious circle – a “rat race” with no end in sight and price wars as the weapons of choice.
In the following insight report, we want to explore this rat race in greater detail and provide an outlook for 2024, including the challenges that lie ahead as well as the focal points of foreign OEMs in the highly complex Chinese market.
“卷” or the involution of the Chinese auto market Overall performance
The term “卷” (spelled “Juǎn” in Chinese Pinyin) was undoubtedly the prevailing expression in the Chinese automotive market in 2023. It is understood to mean “involution” or “rat race,” depicting a scenario in which all market participants are entangled in an intense battle for market share with no foreseeable conclusion.
And that exactly describes the Chinese auto market with the emergence of a price war as the ultimate solution, while favorable governmental subsidies are on the way out – a vicious circle.
Curious? Download the full insight now!
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eschäftsumfeld der Zulieferer trübt sich in diesem Jahr ein, nach spürbarem Aufwind bei Umsatz und Marge im Jahr 2023.
Berylls-Rück- und Ausblick auf die Zuliefererbranche: 2024 wird erneut ein herausforderndes Jahr.
Die ersten drei Quartale 2023 waren eine Phase der Zuwächse bei den weltweit größten Zulieferern, Umsatz und Marge stiegen teilweise signifikant. Bereits in Q4 2023 trübten sich die Bedingungen ein, dieser Trend wird 2024 fortbestehen.
China bleibt größter Fahrzeugmarkt, aber bedingt durch die Währungsschwäche, die zunehmende Komplexität der Beziehungen zu China und Entscheidungsfindungen vor Ort, bekommt das positive Bild Risse.
Osteuropas Bedeutung für die Automobilindustrie ist hoch und wird weiterwachsen.
Steigende Lohnkosten in der Region und geopolitische Risiken, machen Standortentscheidungen zu Osteuropas Gunsten, jedoch zunehmend schwieriger.
Berylls-Experten sehen wachsende Relevanz von Zulieferer-Produktionsstandorten in Nordafrika.
Jetzt die gesamte Pressemitteilung herunterladen!
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he trucking industry is faced with a formidable challenge in its quest for decarbonization, given its substantial climate footprint. The International Energy Agency reports that a staggering 40% of global road transport emissions originate from this sector.
Discover the transformation in long-haul trucking with electrification. Industry leaders must embrace unique services for a competitive edge. Our latest insight highlights these changes and emphasizes the urgency to act for success in a dynamic industry environment.
Download the full insight now.
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München, Januar 2024
erylls erwartet für 2030 ein Volumen in der Automobilproduktion von 5,2 Millionen Fahrzeugen – unter starkem Vorbehalt.
Zum Jahreswechsel 2023/2024 prägt Pessimismus die deutsche Wirtschaft, zumindest, wenn man dem Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) glaubt. Die Gründe dafür sind vielschichtig. Zu ihnen gehören die schwächelnde Weltkonjunktur, Zinserhöhungen, aber auch Unklarheiten beim Bundeshaushalt. Zudem schwindet das Vertrauen in den Standort Deutschland, nicht zuletzt das abrupte Ende der E-Autoförderung trägt dazu bei. Wenig verlässliche Rahmenbedingungen und der Fachkräftemangel machen es schwierig, optimistisch auf das Jahr 2024 zu blicken. Die Berylls-Experten sehen dennoch Anlass zumindest für vorsichtigen Optimismus in der Automobilbranche.
Denn nach vielen Tiefschlägen in der jüngeren Vergangenheit, ist die deutsche Automobilindustrie wieder auf einen Wachstumspfad eingeschwenkt. In den kommenden Jahren wächst die deutsche Fahrzeugproduktion mit 2,5 Prozent jährlich deutlich stärker als das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) mit prognostizierten 1,4 Prozent pro Jahr. Setzen wir dieses Wachstum an, werden im Jahr 2030 in Deutschland 5,3 Millionen Fahrzeuge produziert, im vergangenen Jahr waren es 4,3 Millionen. Bis 2030 wird ein Wachstum von 24 Prozent erwartet, das klar über dem von China liegt. Die dortige Steigerung der Fahrzeugproduktion wird im gleichen Zeitraum bei 17 Prozent liegen.
Figure 1: Vergleich Wachstum Automobilproduktion und BIP
Anmerkung: TOP 25 Länder nach Fahrzeugproduktion, bereinigt um Russland und Iran
Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors, S&P Global
Die für Deutschland gegebene Produktionszahl stellt allerdings einen Mittelwert dar, der in einem Korridor mit erheblicher Bandbreite liegt. Denn die Automobilindustrie am Standort Deutschland steht gleich vor zwei großen Herausforderungen. Zum einen vor ihrer Transformation in Richtung e-Mobilität und zum anderen vor industriepolitischen Verwerfungen. Zu denen gehören die Kriege in der Ukraine und im Nahen Osten, aber auch der zunehmende Markt-Protektionismus in den verschiedenen Weltregionen.
Produktionsverlagerungen und negative Auswirkungen auf die Geschäftsmodelle können die Folgen sein. Sie würden die Inlandsfertigung um bis zu 32 Prozent schrumpfen lassen, wie die Berylls-Analyse nahelegt. Im Best Case allerdings, werden hierzulande im Jahr 2030 sechs Millionen Fahrzeuge produziert, ein Plus von 13 Prozent gegenüber dem angenommenen Mittelwert. Tatsächlich steigt das Produktionsvolumen aber nicht bei den einheimischen OEMs, sondern nahezu ausschließlich bei Tesla im Werk in Grünheide. Die deutschen Hersteller planen im Mittelwert mit keinem Wachstum der lokalen Produktion und sind zudem stark von den Entwicklungen im Premiumsegment abhängig.
Figure 2: Anteil von Premiumfahrzeugen und OEMs an Gesamtproduktion
Anmerkung: Top 15 Länder nach Fahrzeugproduktion
Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors, S&P Global
Problematisch für die heimische Industrie sind zudem Hersteller, die sich im nahen europäischen Ausland niederlassen. Hier mag beispielhaft die Ankündigung von BYD genannt werden. Der chinesische Hersteller plant ein Werk in Ungarn und wird von dort Europa mit vergleichsweise erschwinglichen Fahrzeugen versorgen. Um dem Standort Deutschland auch in Zukunft eine angemessene Bedeutung zu sichern, wäre es aber wünschenswert, wenn in hiesige Produktionsstandorte investiert werden würde oder wenn neue Hersteller, analog zu Tesla, ihre europäische Produktion in Deutschland ansiedeln.
Es wäre die Aufgabe eine engagierten Industriepolitik dafür die Weichen zu stellen. Dazu gehört ganz sicher eine Entbürokratisierung vieler Prozesse. Als wenig hilfreich sehen die Berylls-Experten dagegen die zeitlich begrenzte Einführung eines Industriestrompreises.
Schrumpft die Automobilindustrie in Deutschland, hat das unmittelbare und erhebliche Auswirkungen auf das BIP. Schon das von Berylls prognostizierte Worst Case Szenario, mit dem Produktionsrückgang von 1,7 Millionen Fahrzeugen bis 2030 (gemessen am Mittelwert), hätte einen negativen Effekt auf das BIP von 1,6 Prozent. Um diesem Abschwung vorzubeugen, sind alle relevanten Akteure aufgefordert wirksame Gegenmaßnahmen zu ergreifen. Die OEMs allein, können dies nicht bewerkstelligen.
Figure 3: Prognostizierte Automobilproduktion und Szenarien in Deutschland
*) Ausprägung abhängig von Szenario, mit oder ohne Risiko von Verlängerungen
Quelle: Berylls Strategy Advisors, S&P Global
Die gesamte Studie zur Automobilproduktion in Deutschland auch hier zum Download.
Copyright Berylls by AlixPartners
