Schwierige Marktbedingungen für Zulieferer

Zulieferer blicken derzeit überaus optimistisch in die elektrische Zukunft. Dies ist insofern bemerkenswert, als dass sich heute für viele Zulieferer ein ganz anderes Bild für den Bereich E-Mobilität zeigt: niedrige oder oft auch negative Margen, eine hohe technologische Unsicherheit und ein großes finanzielles Risiko.

Nach wie vor sind die Volumina auf den Plattformen vergleichsweise niedrig. Die hohen Entwicklungskosten lassen sich demnach nur eingeschränkt auf die Volumina umlegen. Dabei spielen vor allem die kurzen Innovationszyklen eine entscheidende Rolle, denn der Fokus bei den OEMs liegt noch immer auf kurzfristig realisierbaren Effizienzsteigerungen und Kostenreduzierungen. Die Zulieferer müssen, um Schritt zu halten, folglich rasch neue Produktgenerationen auf den Markt bringen. Der Bedarf an qualifizierten Ingenieuren ist daher enorm – das Angebot, unter der Berücksichtigung von Fachkräftemangel und großem Wettbewerb aber unzureichend. Der Wettbewerb wird noch weiter zunehmen: Von neuen Wettbewerbern angelockt und durch steigende Volumina sowie die zunehmende Notwendigkeit, Rückgänge im verbrennerabhängigen Geschäft auszugleichen, oder schlicht, um sich als neuer Spieler in der Lieferantenlandschaft zu positionieren. In dieser Situation schlägt sich der Kostendruck der OEMs und der große Wettbewerb mit vielerorts „erkauften“ Projekten unweigerlich auch im Preisniveau wieder; dies kann für viele Komponenten angesichts der hohen Innovationsleistung und geringen Stückzahlen als zu gering bezeichnet werden. Daher ist es auch nicht weiter verwunderlich, dass die Geschäftsbereiche rund um E-Mobilität in vielen Fällen nicht nur unter dem eigenen Margenanspruch liegen, sondern vielfach in den negativen Bereich abgefallen sind. Dabei befinden sich die Zulieferer in einem gefährlichen Teufelskreis: Es braucht „mehr Geschäft“, um einerseits die Volumenbasis zu erhöhen und andererseits die eigene Marktposition zu stärken. Gleichzeitig bedeutet angesichts niedriger Preisniveaus „mehr Geschäft“ auch niedrigere Durchschnittsmargen und oftmals höhere Quersubventionierung aus anderen Geschäftsbereichen. Es ist absehbar, dass dies auf Dauer nicht gut gehen wird und es früher oder später zu Konsolidierungen kommen muss – entsprechende Marktbewegungen zeigen sich bereits.

Difficult market conditions for suppliers

This level of optimism is striking, not least because one consequence of E-mobility is a more competitive and less certain market. For many suppliers, E-mobility will bring challenging levels of change, with low or even negative margins, high technological uncertainty and considerable financial risk.

In the E-mobility era suppliers are confronted with high transition costs, rapid development cycles and a shortage of E-mobility skills. All these factors combine to compress margins and intensify competition.

Despite rapid growth, absolute volumes for electric vehicles remain comparatively low, limiting the opportunity to offset high development costs through volume sales. Meanwhile short E-mobility innovation cycles force suppliers to develop and launch new product generations more frequently simply to keep pace with competitors even while OEMs remain focused on efficiency increases and cost reductions. In this environment it is unsurprising to find intense competition for E-mobility engineering skills from both OEMs and suppliers, forcing up labor costs and further squeezing supplier margins. This is only likely to increase as new suppliers attract staff and volumes increase.

Such cost pressures against a background of furious competition from existing suppliers seeking to build their position in the E-mobility market and new suppliers, who may be free of the burden of legacy costs, mean that for many suppliers’ prices are too low to support margins. In some cases, margins may actually be negative. Established suppliers risk becoming trapped in a vicious circle: they need more business to increase their volumes and strengthen their own market position, but that may mean lower average margins and often higher cross-subsidization from other business areas.

In the long run this is not sustainable and sooner or later consolidations will be necessary – indeed, the first signs of this are already apparent.

1. Clarity and consistency in the transformation

Transformation is a task for senior management and has the highest priority. If the changes that senior managers are expecting from the organization are going to be executed effectively, then clear messages on the need for change and the ultimate purpose of the transition are needed. The other critical element is passion for change: it is this which engenders the ability to reimagine the organization at all levels, as well as for people to change themselves. The goal is for management to “live the future” in the here and now.

2. Humility and respect toward the history and values of the company

Successful transformations actively address the past and reveal how the company’s ability to change has shaped it so far. The most important questions to be considered are: where do we come from? Why is the business like it is? Which patterns can be broken and which cannot? By recognizing current structures and cultural patterns and dealing with them respectfully, management can assess where there is an immediate need for action and where radical changes cannot be initiated overnight.

3. Convergence of strategy and organizational development

An integrated strategy for organizational development identifies current and future demands on structure, culture and management, and monitors change on an ongoing basis. Companies in transition need calibrated momentum, so the speed of the organization’s adjustment is decisive.

4. Targeted planning and implementation

The secret of successful implementation is to maintain planned targets rather than strive for results which push beyond the framework of the current transformation. Companies cannot withstand excessive speed and change over a long period. Too little momentum and the transition will wither; too much and the organization may break down. Therefore it is critical to evaluate transition plans carefully in the planning phase and consider their real-world feasibility.

5. Mix of experienced and young managers

The transformation team will play a key role in the success of the change initiative. The role of this team is to lead its staff with empathy and to communicate stability and security where there is uncertainty. The team therefore needs a good mix of experienced and younger managers who want change: experienced managers should be capable of assessing feasibility, practicability and potential risk, smoothing the way for the new generation. Younger managers see the situation with fresher eyes and are more likely to focus on the opportunities of tomorrow than on the risks of today.

6. Recognition of every staff member’s contribution

Managers need to make sure that staff are able to make individual contributions. That is only possible when staff understand why the transformation is the right way forward, what the common goal is and what each individual can achieve. If these elements are present, management can better control the transformation with all its dependencies, and the chances of success are greatly enhanced.