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E-Mobility Country Ranking 2024

Munich, May 2024

E-Mobility Country Ranking 2023

Munich, May 2024
T

he analysis of the use of e-mobility in 35 countries worldwide shows that unit sales of battery electric vehicles in Europe¹ rose again slightly in 2023. Although 2024 got off to a bumpy start, average BEV sales are still expected to grow compared to the previous year – and are urgently required in view of the CO₂ limits that will apply for manufacturers in Europe as of 2025.

¹ Europe = EU countries + EFTA countries + United Kingdom

The year 2023 was a turbulent one for both the global economy and the automotive industry. Following the semiconductor crisis and the resulting supply shortage, inflation also made itself felt in terms of vehicle sales. Despite the global challenges the market share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) continued to grow in many markets, following on from the success of the previous year (FIGURE 1).

However, really strong BEV growth rates were only achieved in certain markets. While Norway remains unmatched at the top of the rankings in terms of BEV sales, Finland has moved up one place and Denmark three, thus overtaking the Netherlands. Belgium has even jumped up six places. These movements reflect developments in the tax models of the respective countries – where taxes on vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICEs) were increased and taxes on emission-free vehicles decreased. By contrast, Germany dropped four places in the ranking and the United Kingdom even lost seven places – two countries where the tax model has remained very attractive for ICEs.

FIGURE 1 – DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHARE OF NEW BEV REGISTRATIONS IN 2023 YEAR ON YEAR, BY COUNTRY
(in % points)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

The situation is different for plug-in hybrids (PHEVs), where the negative trend seen the previous year continued, with the proportion of new registrations falling in many European countries (FIGURE 2). Primarily in the Scandinavian countries, it is clear to see that the PHEV era is coming to an end and that they will be replaced by BEVs in the medium term. China, on the other hand, has played a special role with a large increase in PHEV sales over the last two years. As PHEVs are considered “New Energy Vehicles” (NEVs) together with BEVs, they remain relevant for China’s OEM targets regarding NEV vehicles.

FIGURE 2 – DEVELOPMENT OF THE SHARE OF NEW PHEV REGISTRATIONS IN 2023 YEAR ON YEAR, BY COUNTRY
(in % points)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

One factor driving the rise in new BEV registrations is the further expansion of the charging infrastructure (FIGURE 3). While the coverage for standard and fast charging (up to 150 kW) continues to improve, in 2023 the main focus was on expanding the network of ultra-fast charging points (150 kW and above). Ultra-fast charging enables a car battery to be charged within just a few minutes, particularly important for customers on long journeys. Ultra-fast charging points have been installed across all markets in Europe, mostly with triple-digit growth rates. The same applies to eastern Europe, even if there is still a significant gap by comparison. These developments are increasingly invalidating the argument that BEVs are unsuitable for long distances.

FIGURE 3 – DEVELOPMENT OF THE NUMBER OF PUBLIC CHARGING POINTS PER 10,000 RESIDENTS IN 2023 YEAR ON YEAR, BY COUNTRY
(in units)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

IN 2024, COMPANIES ARE PREPARING FOR STRICTER EUROPEAN EMISSIONS TARGETS IN 2025

In 2025, the second stage of the EU law designed to reduce the CO₂ emissions of new vehicles registered in Europe (Regulation [EU] 2019/631) will come into force. This stage requires a further 15% reduction in CO₂ emissions for OEMs in Europe compared to the current targets. The stricter regulation will culminate in a ban on new ICE vehicles as of 2035 – despite this ambitious target being regularly called into question in the worlds of politics and business and coming up for review again in 2026.

A slight increase in new BEV registrations is therefore predicted in Europe in 2024. However, similar to the previous year, the rise is likely to remain relatively low with an expected market penetration of around 16% to 18% (15.7% in 2023). Conversely, very strong growth is expected for 2025 against the backdrop of the new European requirements for CO₂ emissions. BEVs are expected to account for almost a quarter of new registrations in Europe in 2025.

However, to achieve this ambitious target, OEMs will need to significantly expand their BEV portfolio and make their vehicles far more attractive to buyers. For this reason, numerous new models have either already been announced (e.g., the Fiat Panda) or presented (e.g., the Citroën ë-C3, Renault 5, or Audi Q6), which will be available by the end of 2024. Particularly in the B (small car) and C (mid-range) segments, by far the most popular in Europe, the choice of models on the market will be substantially larger. Until now, there has only been a very limited and uncompetitive range of BEVs in these segments. The affordable Renault 5, Citroën ë-C3, and Fiat Panda models will be particularly relevant and available from 2025 for less than €25,000. With a reasonable range (over 300 km in accordance with WLTP), these vehicles will therefore open up a completely new market.

On the other hand, OEMs will also have to increase their BEV sales in southern and eastern European countries, which have so far only played a marginal role on the road to electrification in Europe. As new vehicle registrations in Norway are almost completely electric (over 90% share of BEV and PHEV sales in 2023), very little additional growth is expected there. Major markets such as Italy and Spain, which account for 12% and 7% of European sales respectively, will therefore have to play a greater role in the registration of new BEVs in Europe.

EUROPEANS ARE READY TO SWITCH TO BEVS, AS LONG AS THE PRICE IS RIGHT

Although the public debate on this topic is still very tense, there are numerous signs that many European consumers are willing to consider buying a BEV. Although a BEV is often still more expensive to buy than a comparable ICE, the BEV scores points in terms of total cost of ownership, as the operating costs (fuel, maintenance, etc.) are lower than those of an ICE vehicle.

The example of social leasing for low-income households in France also shows that lower costs can be a strong argument in favor of purchasing a BEV. In this case, an electric vehicle manufactured in Europe could be leased for €100 per month – and partially financed by the state government. The program was launched at the beginning of 2024 – and discontinued just one month later as the annual budget had already been exceeded, which proves there is no shortage of BEV customers, provided the offer is financially viable.

Last year, the best-selling model in Europe (and worldwide) was also a BEV: the Tesla Model Y. Above all, it has helped Tesla to catch up with highly popular car brands such as Citroën or Fiat (in terms of vehicle sales in Europe) and overtake established manufacturers such as Volvo or Nissan on the European market. The trend is confirmed when you take a look at Chinese manufacturers. For example, sales figures for manufacturers MG (SAIC) and BYD in Europe have skyrocketed, largely due to their highly competitive range of BEVs. In 2023, MG made it into the top 20 brands in Europe – a first for a Chinese brand – and its top model, the electric MG4, secured a place in the top 5 best-selling electric vehicles in Europe in 2023. This fact underlines how important it is for established manufacturers to offer a competitive range of models in Europe’s main market segments in order to avoid losing market share to new entrants.

The market is beginning to adapt to this new reality, with many manufacturers lowering the prices of their electric models (in some cases significantly) in order to position themselves more competitively on the market. This was the case with Renault and Volkswagen, for example, but also Toyota, where prices for the mid-range SUV bZ4X were reduced by €20,000 in France between mid-2023 (from €55,000 at the time) and February 2024 (from €35,000). Due to the previously far higher price, only 626 units of this vehicle were sold in France in 2023.

BEV SALES FIGURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE – DESPITE THE GRADUAL PHASING OUT OF SUBSIDIES IN EUROPE

For some years now, the subsidies offered by European governments to encourage the purchase of BEVs have been gradually reduced as their attractiveness (price, charging infrastructure, technical maturity) increases and registration figures rise. And 2024 is no exception; in France, for example, the subsidy when purchasing a BEV has been reduced from €5,000 to €4,000. However, these reductions have so far never hindered the gradual increase in the share of BEVs in new car sales figures, as the example of Norway clearly illustrates. The Scandinavian country had previously introduced a full VAT reduction for BEVs, which was abolished as of January 1, 2023. Although this move caused the overall market share of BEVs to drop significantly in the first few months of 2023, the upward trend over the year as a whole was not reversed as a result.

Subsidies for BEVs are a means for policymakers to increase the pace of electrification. The taxation of combustion vehicles also serves this purpose, and the subsidies are also partly financed via this method. For example, Norway, the Netherlands and, to a certain extent, France have implemented a tax system that makes the purchase of ICEs – especially those with high CO₂ emissions – far less attractive (FIGURE 4, FIGURE 5).

FIGURE 4 – COST COMPARISON BETWEEN BUYING A HYUNDAI KONA (B-SUV SEGMENT) AS A BEV VERSION OR A PETROL VERSION IN SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
(in thousands of EUROS)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

For mainly external reasons (federal budget 2024), Germany abruptly discontinued its subsidy system for the purchase of BEVs at the end of 2023.
In contrast to other countries, however, there has been no corresponding adjustment or change to the tax model that would make the purchase of ICE vehicles less attractive. The combination of these two aspects means that the attractiveness of BEVs compared to ICEs has declined and, as a result, BEV sales unit figures contracted considerably in the first quarter of 2024. As the OEMs’ CO₂ fleet targets are at stake, OEMs in Germany must potentially offer higher discounts in order to make their BEVs attractive again and partially compensate for the expiry of the environmental subsidies. That is far easier with premium models, as the margins are highest in this market segment and the price difference to an ICE vehicle is much smaller – sometimes even to the advantage of the comparable BEV model (FIGURE 5).

FIGURE 5 – COST COMPARISON BETWEEN BUYING A BMW X5 / iX (E-SUV SEGMENT) AS A BEV VERSION AND A PETROL VERSION IN SELECTED EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
(in thousands of EUROS)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors 

The discontinuation of subsidies will mainly affect private customers, as the tax benefits for electric company cars will be maintained (or even expanded, taking into account the increase in the upper price limit for the reduced tax rate to 0.25%). As company cars account for 60% of the German car market (compared to 20% in France, for example), that should at least partially mitigate any potential decline in BEV sales in 2024. OEMs are therefore well advised to make attractive BEV offers and highlight them, especially when it comes to company car leasing.

THE EXPANSION OF CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE IN EUROPE CONTINUES – AND THE TREND IS GAINING PACE

Charging infrastructure is dependent on long-term investments and less subject to fluctuations in the automotive market. Apart from the 38% increase in the overall number of charging points in Europe last year (FIGURE 6), the doubling (+110%) of ultra-fast charging points (150 kW and above) illustrates the current degree of momentum in Europe (FIGURE 7).

FIGURE 6 – DEVELOPMENT OF THE NUMBER OF PUBLIC CHARGING POINTS IN 2023 YEAR ON YEAR, BY COUNTRY
(in thousands)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

FIGURE 7 – DEVELOPMENT IN THE NUMBER OF PUBLIC ULTRA-FAST CHARGING POINTS (150 KW AND ABOVE) IN 2023 YEAR ON YEAR, BY COUNTRY
(in units)

Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors

The trend is unlikely to lose pace in 2024 or even beyond, as numerous investments have already been announced, often combined with state or European funding. The EU is supporting the development of charging infrastructure with its AFIR law, which requires the member states to fulfill two conditions: firstly, to ensure a certain installed capacity per electric vehicle registered in the country (1.3 kW per BEV and 0.8 kW per PHEV), and secondly, to guarantee minimum coverage along the main transport routes with ultra-fast charging points (one charging station of at least 150 kW per 60 km in the European “Core TEN-T Network” by 2025). The aim of the first condition is to maintain the pressure on EU member states so that the infrastructure can be expanded at a sufficient rate to meet the needs of the ever-growing fleets of BEVs in future years. At present, all EU states except Malta meet this criterion. The second condition is aimed at stepping up the development of a sufficiently fast infrastructure to enable convenient long-distance travel throughout Europe – a matter that can currently still be a problem in some eastern European countries.

Many charging network operators as well as energy suppliers and oil companies are either in the process of entering this dynamic market or increasingly investing in it. Mercedes-Benz Mobility, for example, entered the ultra-fast charging market last year, while Total Energies fully converted some of its petrol stations into charging stations for electric vehicles in 2023 – taking a further step on its journey from being simply an oil company to an energy supplier. The rapidly growing market requires high levels of investment to expand the infrastructure, which will, however, only pay off at a later date. The many new players need to invest a great deal at the moment in order to play a role in this highly promising market in the future. However, it is not yet large enough for the companies to be profitable, which means the market is inevitably heading for consolidation. 

Click here to find the full Ranking.

Authors
Dr. Alexander Timmer

Partner

Valentin Froh

Project Manager

Dennis Koschmieder

Consultant

Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, as a partner in May 2021. He is an expert in market entry and growth strategies, M&A and can look back on many years of experience in the operations environment. Dr. Alexander Timmer has been advising automotive manufacturers and suppliers in a global context since 2012. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of portfolio planning, development and production. His other areas of expertise include digitalization and the complex of topics surrounding electromobility.
Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked for Booz & Company and PwC Strategy&, among others, as a member of the management team in North America, Asia and Europe.
After studying mechanical engineering at RWTH Aachen University and Chalmers University in Gothenburg, he earned his doctorate in manufacturing technologies at the Machine Tool Laboratory of RWTH Aachen University.

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