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Automotive suppliers close sites in Europe and focus on electric mobility

Munich, August 2024

Automotive suppliers close sites in Europe and focus on electric mobility

Munich, August 2024
I

f you look at the current headlines around electric mobility, they are mostly negative. Car rental companies such as Sixt and Hertz are reducing the percentage of electric vehicles in their fleets, Audi wants to bring fewer electric models onto the market, and Mercedes is stopping a complete e-platform.

However, automotive production in China and the USA is also predicted to grow by 2030. The question for suppliers is therefore how they can participate in this growth and whether they need to adapt their focus technologies and the geographical location of their production sites.

Growth in China, the USA, and Mexico, site closures in Germany

If we look at the forecast production site developments of the world’s TOP 20 automotive suppliers, at first glance a positive trend emerges: between January 2022 and February 2024, suppliers announced significantly more expansions and new openings than closures and disposals (see Figure 1).

Figure 1: Number of planned site changes at TOP 20 automotive suppliers worldwide
Announced period of the planned site changes: January 2022 to February 2024

Bildschirmfoto 2024-08-09 um 14.26.56

Source: Berylls by AlixPartners

However, this does not apply equally to all countries, especially not to Germany, where sales and closures predominate (see Figure 2) as well as relocations to other regions, for example at Continental. The Babenhausen plant will be closed by 2028, parts of the production there have already been relocated to Eastern Europe and the plant in Gifhorn will be completely closed down by the end of 2027 due to a lack of profitability.

Figure 2: Number of planned site changes at TOP 20 automotive suppliers in selected countries
Announced period of the planned site changes: January 2022 to February 2024

Source: Berylls by AlixPartners

There are also a large number of plant sales and closures in the USA. In contrast to Germany, however, there are no signs of a structural exodus here, as the plant closures are being more than offset by a significantly larger number of new ones being opened and existing capacities expanded. Electric mobility is a key driver of growth in the USA (Figure 3) – the Inflation Reduction Act has the potential to further strengthen this momentum. Apart from the USA, Japan, Canada, Hungary, and China in particular are among the winners in terms of new openings and expansions (Figure 2).

By far the highest growth is expected in China – as in the USA, here too, investments in the production of electric drivetrains clearly dominate at over 40%. German companies play a key role here, accounting for almost 40% of the aforementioned investments in China – and are therefore responsible for more local investments than China’s TOP 20 suppliers.

Figure 3: Percentages of investment priorities od the TOP 20 automotive suppliers in selected countries
Announced period of the planned site changes: January 2022 to February 2024

Source: Berylls by AlixPartners

In Mexico, the investing companies specialize in the electrics and electronics markets. Around 40% of local investments are made in this area, such as for the expansion of three Aptiv sites to increase production capacity, e.g., for low-voltage cable harnesses.

Chinese and US companies investing primarily in domestic markets

In addition to the trends of e-mobility and growth in China, the “home country first” trend stands out in the planned investments (Figure 4): US companies are focusing primarily on the American domestic market and far less on Asia or Europe. Chinese companies are also pursuing this strategy and clearly focusing their investments on the home market. In view of the recently adopted 100% import duty on Chinese electric vehicles in the USA, this is a clear sign of the increasing isolation of the two markets, which is also reflected in the investments of the suppliers under review.

Figure 4: Percentages of investment priorities od the TOP 20 automotive suppliers in selected countries
Announced period of the planned site changes: January 2022 to February 2024

Source: Berylls by AlixPartners

German companies, on the other hand, are showing little interest in new sites within their own country – even though at 27% they are responsible for the largest share of investment among the TOP 20 automotive suppliers. BOSCH is investing in new plants in China to increase production capacity for e-powertrain components, and ZF Friedrichshafen is investing USD 500 million in its existing site in Gray Court, South Carolina, to be able to produce both conventional and electrified drive systems there.

Sites in Germany are being closed – but German suppliers are leading the way in establishing new production capacities

All in all, the view of the future from a German perspective is ambivalent: there will be a significant consolidation of automotive supplier locations in Germany – the expansions planned to drive the e-mobility transformation are mainly taking place in the USA and China. However, German suppliers also benefit indirectly from this development, as they are still strongly represented in these relevant growth markets – and can even expand their positions there.

For globally operating automotive suppliers, it is worthwhile consolidating their presence in growth markets such as the USA and China, as this ensures compliance with local standards and avoids high logistics costs or looming import duties, and critical tier-n suppliers and their resources are easily accessible.

Figure 5: Percentage of countries of origin of investments by the TOP 20 automotive suppliers and target country of planned investments
Announced period of the planned site changes: January 2022 to February 2024

Source: Berylls by AlixPartners

Authors
Dr. Alexander TImmer

Partner

Christian Grimmelt

Partner

Stefan Schneeberger

Associate Partner

Andreas Maihöfner

Project Manager

Alexander van Woudenberg

Project Manager

Christian Grimmelt

Christian Grimmelt has been an integral member of the Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors) team since February 2021. Previously, he gained extensive professional experience in top management consultancies and in the automotive supplier industry.

During his time at the world’s largest automotive supplier, he drove the establishment of a central unit to optimize the company’s global logistics and production network.

Christian Grimmelt’s consulting focus is logistics and production network optimization, purchasing and (digital) operations including launch and turnaround management for OEMs and especially suppliers.

Christian Grimmelt holds a university diploma in industrial engineering from the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology.

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Dr. Alexander Timmer

Dr. Alexander Timmer (1981) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, as a partner in May 2021. He is an expert in market entry and growth strategies, M&A and can look back on many years of experience in the operations environment. Dr. Alexander Timmer has been advising automotive manufacturers and suppliers in a global context since 2012. He has in-depth expert knowledge in the areas of portfolio planning, development and production. His other areas of expertise include digitalization and the complex of topics surrounding electromobility.
Prior to joining Berylls Strategy Advisors, he worked for Booz & Company and PwC Strategy&, among others, as a member of the management team in North America, Asia and Europe.
After studying mechanical engineering at RWTH Aachen University and Chalmers University in Gothenburg, he earned his doctorate in manufacturing technologies at the Machine Tool Laboratory of RWTH Aachen University.

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