New financing hurdles exacerbate the supplier crisis

Munich, July 2024

New financing hurdles exacerbate the supplier crisis

Munich, July 2024
T

he supplier crisis has characterized the automotive industry for years and is being further exacerbated by new financing hurdles.

Just two years after the coronavirus pandemic, cost pressure has returned to pre-crisis levels, while economic conditions remain challenging. Upfront investments in innovations and relocations are increasing the financial pressure even further. Medium-sized suppliers in Germany, which have been reporting below-average returns for several years, are particularly impacted. The decreasing availability of financing sources and rising financing costs are therefore only the latest causes of the crisis that are pushing suppliers to breaking point.

Cost pressure and investment requirements

Suppliers have been struggling with incredible cost pressure for some time now. Production costs in the automotive industry have risen significantly over the past four years. This is due in particular to the increase in prices for raw materials (+16% to +32%) and energy (+40%) since the end of 2019, but also notably to rising wage costs (+12%).¹ The coronavirus pandemic had defused the situation for the time being to the extent that OEMs showed understanding for cost increases and were willing to make concessions in the interest of supply chain security. In the meantime, however, cost pressure has returned to pre-crisis levels.

In addition to cost pressure, the technological and regulatory transformation is compelling companies to invest heavily in order to continuously speed up the pace of innovation and the relocation of production sites in order to safeguard their competitiveness. These necessary investments require considerable financial resources and increase the pressure on already tight profit margins and operating cash flows.

Low returns for SMEs

Returns for suppliers, particularly for German SMEs, have been well below average for the past four to five years. An analysis by Roland Berger shows that the average EBIT margin of automotive suppliers has fallen from 7.6% in 2017 to just 4.6% in 2022.² Many companies are struggling with low profits or even making losses. Moreover, the equity base has decreased considerably during this period, further weakening the financial stability of many companies. The average equity ratio of the five largest German suppliers has fallen from 33.8% to 28.2% since 2018.³ Low returns and the reduced equity base are making it increasingly difficult for suppliers to finance the necessary investments from their own funds.

Increasing financing problems

In the last one to two years or so, the financing situation for automotive suppliers has become increasingly challenging. Access to relatively cheap bank loans has become more difficult and many companies are no longer able to obtain financing from commercial banks at all. Instead, they have had to turn to alternative sources of financing such as debt funds. However, this move increases the financing costs considerably, as interest rates for this alternative type of financing are often well over 10%. Even companies that continue to be financed by commercial banks have experienced a drastic rise in their financing costs over the past two years. During this period, the Euribor has increased from below 0% to just under 4%.⁴ With a standard market interest margin of 4%, financing costs have therefore doubled from around 4% to approximately 8%.

German commercial banks are increasingly reluctant to grant loans to the automotive supply industry, especially to SMEs. This is also confirmed by a study conducted by KfW in collaboration with the ifo Institute: According to this, 26.3% of SMEs surveyed in the manufacturing sector reported difficult credit negotiations with banks at the end of 2023, compared to just 14.8% at the beginning of 2019.⁵ This reluctance on the part of banks means that suppliers are even more dependent on more expensive sources of financing, which puts further pressure on their financial situation.

Rejection of high financing costs by OEMs

OEMs are not willing to accept the high financing costs of suppliers in their calculations. This further exacerbates the situation, as suppliers are unable to pass on the increased financing costs to their customers. A study conducted by PwC emphasizes the fact that suppliers are not in a position to impose higher costs on OEMs and are therefore suffering from falling margins – in contrast to the OEMs.

This additional burden threatens to significantly reduce the competitiveness of the German supplier industry. Medium-sized companies are particularly impacted, as they often do not have the financial reserves to shoulder these additional costs.

Innovative financing models and better cooperation are necessary to successfully meet these challenges. Suppliers, OEMs, commercial banks, and policymakers must work together to ensure that the framework conditions for sustainable competitiveness in the German supplier industry can be created. A better understanding of the respective needs and challenges and a regulatory framework adapted to suit them are necessary in order to at least overcome this cause of the supplier crisis.

¹ Oliver Wyman (2024): Die nächste Hürde: Wie finanzieren Automobilzulieferer die Transformation?
² Roland Berger (2023): Global Automotive Supplier Study 2023.
³ Bloomberg (2024).
⁴ Euribor Rates (2024).
⁵ KfW Research (2024): KfW-ifo-Kredithürde.
⁶ Strategy& (2024): Automobilzulieferer-Studie 2023.

Authors
Andreas Rauh

Executive Partner

Johannes Auch

Investment Associate

Andreas Rauh

Andreas Rauh joined Berylls Equity Partners as co-founder and managing director in January 2020. Berylls Equity Partners, as the investment company of the Berylls Group, invests in companies in the mobility industry that are in special situations.

Andreas is an expert in private equity, mergers & acquisitions and corporate management.

After ten years in transaction advisory with a focus on medium-sized companies, Andreas moved to the investment sector in 2014. There, he has since accompanied a double-digit number of company acquisitions and sales in a leading role.

Andreas is a business graduate with a diploma from the University of Trier and holds a Master of Science in Business degree from Handelshøyskolen BI.