Digitalisierung

Digitalization

Battery technology start-ups: Which direction are future business models moving in?

Munich, June 2022

Digitalisierung

Battery technology start-ups: Which direction are future business models moving in?

Munich, June 2022
A

t present we are experiencing a worldwide shift from conventional combustion engines into buzzing battery-electric vehicles.

New car registrations paint a clear picture of the trend: while worldwide the number of new registrations across all drive systems is set to increase by 5% by the year 2030, the traditional combustion engine is expected to lose significant market share and new registrations for battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) are expected to increase by a global average of more than 30%.

The fundamental building block and prerequisite for this growth will be the availability of sufficient battery cells. In 2021, the annual production capacity for lithium-ion batteries in the U.S., Europe and China was just under 700 GWh. By 2030, annual demand of up to 2,600 GWh is expected in these areas; meeting this would necessitate a 16% annual increase in production capacity. The rapid growth in battery cell demand and accompanying production capacity confronts the supplier industry with some core questions: which structures and business models will enable this growth? Will established market participants react quickly and innovatively to the trend – or will new market participants be able to capitalize on the gaps before existing suppliers are able to close them?

Established suppliers have taken various approaches to the shift to e-mobility, but in the last 10 years we have seen real hype around start-ups focused on battery technology and production. Out of 700 battery-related start-ups founded since 2010, 279 are connected to the car industry. Alongside great market potential and the buzz around EVs, low interest rates in the capital markets have supported this development. The number of EV battery start-ups reached a peak in 2016 and 2017, but has since slowed. As Figure 1 below shows, the majority of such start-ups come from North, Central and South America, although large companies from other regions have successfully been established, especially in the field of cell production. The Chinese supplier CATL, for example, was founded as a start-up in 2011, and by 2019 had tripled its turnover, reaching an impressive €18.1 billion in sales by 2021.

Figure 1: Battery start-ups connected to the car industry, 2010-2021

Authors
Fritz Metzger

Principal

Hendryk Pausch

Senior Associate

Sven Zellner

Consultant

If we look at the financing of these start-ups, we see a trend toward large financing rounds, particularly in the last few years. Out of more than 200 financing rounds for the start-ups in our analysis, 53 happened in 2021 with an average volume of €119 million. The amount raised has increased seven-fold since 2020, from €900 million to more than €6 billion. Large financing volumes are to be found particularly for the investment-intensive battery producers. The capital raised is needed to expand production capacities in line with the rapidly increasing demand from car manufacturers.

Figure 2: Start-up financing before public first issue after years

As EV battery producers increase in size, it is becoming more difficult for start-ups to break into the market. Entrepreneurs seem to be trying their luck in new and different segments of the battery value chain, and in the last few years start-ups have been founded in fields such as recycling, remanufacturing and services. Both the absolute number and the share of start-ups in the field of battery production have been declining in the last three years (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Automotive battery start-ups by year and value-chain segment

Areas which still offer potential for start-ups are field monitoring of batteries and production, and closing of material cycles. Artificial intelligence is increasingly used in these fields and contributes to quality assurance in field and production monitoring, as well as addressing unresolved sustainability challenges to create customer benefits. One example is the start-up Accure Battery Intelligence from Aachen in Germany.

The question remains: what options do established automotive suppliers have in the EV battery space? The battle for ever-larger production volume is in full cry and market share is distributed between the existing players. As a result, conventional suppliers as well as young start-ups should focus on peripheral areas and build targeted skills there, to drive forward the whole battery ecosystem and solve problems arising along the value stream. They can do this by creating their own capabilities or through acquisition from outside.

About the author
Fritz Metzger

Fritz Metzger (1986) joined Berylls by AlixPartners (formerly Berylls Strategy Advisors), an international strategy consultancy specializing in the automotive industry, in February 2021. He is an expert on automotive operations.

Since 2011, his focus has been on strategic alignment and operational efficiency improvement of automotive manufacturers and suppliers. He also advises top management in critical situations, including R&D and industrialization task forces and relocation and restructuring initiatives of plants and complete suppliers. The challenges of e-mobility are always in focus.

Before joining Berylls, he was a director at international strategy consultants PwC Strategy&, as well as a sales and project manager at a medium-sized supplier and mechanical engineering company.

Fritz Metzger is a trained industrial engineer with a degree from ESB Business School Reutlingen. He also holds an MBA from the University of Salzburg.

Digitalisierung

Digitalization

Looking for, finding and developing a tech unicorn – if they still exist

Munich, July 2018
T

he impact that digitalization has already had on the car industry can be measured in one figure: €119 billion. That is the amount which has flowed into start-ups in the form of risk capital and other financial resources so far, according to a recent Berylls survey, How mobility start-ups are transforming the global automotive industry. Some 1,003 start-up companies were investigated, with some amazing results.

Authors
Dr. Jan Dannenberg

Executive Partner

Florian Peter

Partner

The top 10 start-ups received 49% of resources

We are already seeing the effects of new digital business models on the roads. In the US and to some extent in China, the major car service agencies, or “ride hailing” companies, have changed mobility behavior. In many cities there is no longer a taxi service to the airport, for example.

Mobility service providers are systematically expanding their networks nationally and internationally. Of the 10 start-ups which have attracted the most investment, six are ride hailing services: DiDi (China), Uber (US), Grab (Singapore), Ola (India), Lyft (USA), and Ucar (China). As one example, in the seven years since it was founded, Lyft has expanded to cover 95 percent of the US population. Its services are available in 700 towns and cities, and with a stock market value of $15.6 billion and turnover of $2.16 billion, Lyft is only one of the successes of digitalization. The other companies in the Top 10 (Tesla, NIO, Faraday Future, and Cruise) are focusing on the production of electric vehicles and/or autonomous driving. Altogether, the 10 biggest start-ups have raised 49 percent of the total risk capital.

Risk capital is attracted to all areas of the mobility supply chain

The focus segments for mobility start-ups are currently: ride hailing (with €44.1 billion in risk capital); vehicle construction, especially electric cars and self-driving cars (€28.4 billion); shared mobility services, such as SHARE NOW (€15.8 billion); electric and electronic components (€11.6 billion); connectivity solutions for vehicles (€1.8 billion); used vehicle sales (€1.6 billion); payment systems (€1.5 billion); “last mile” freight traffic (€1.5 billion); digital infrastructure connectivity (€1.1 billion); and Industry 4.0 applications for the car industry (€1 billion).

The three leading segments are attracting 75 percent of investment resources and the 10 major ones cover more than 90 percent. Berylls investigated more than 150 sectors along the car supply chain in the course of our research, which identified enormous potential for further start-ups in emerging sectors.

We expect substantial new investor demand in start-up segments including: cloud services and cyber security; sensors and sensor system integration in connection with autonomous driving (lidar, radar etc.); physical and digital infrastructure for driving electric vehicles; new human machine interface (HMI) systems such as augmented reality; speech and gesture recognition; connectivity services for the vehicle (such as remote diagnosis and remote steering); and vehicle subscriptions. These areas and others are under-represented when it comes to entrepreneurship and risk capital, and in future we expect many different opportunities to arise for start-up companies.

German start-ups and investors are catching up

From the point of view of the German car industry, an increasing readiness in German-speaking countries to establish or support new digital business models with risk capital is a welcome development. Over the past three years, more than 30 start-ups have been established in the DACH region (D – Germany, A – Austria, CH – Switzerland), offering innovative mobility solutions.

Although Berlin and Munich have nowhere near the status of Silicon Valley or Tel Aviv in the tech industry, more and more new automobility companies are starting up in Germany. Financing is more readily available: all German car manufacturers as well as major suppliers (such as Bosch, ZF, Continental and Mahle) have recognized that they can gain access to technological innovation by investing risk capital. Other large DAX-listed companies including Allianz and Siemens are also investing in mobility start-ups. If Daimler was the most active investor in start-ups in 2017, in 2018 it was BMW. The BMW Group and BMW iVenture have been happy to spend a lot of money on their participation and takeovers of Parkmobile, DriveNow, Moovit, Fair.com, May Mobility, Caroobi, Lunewave, Critical TechWorks and Graphcore. Their financial contributions have exceeded €300 million.

The hype about more “unicorns” (privately owned start-up companies valued at $1 billion or more) to come is by no means over, and the example of AUTO1.com in 2018 shows that the next ones could come from Germany. AUTO1.com is a Europe-wide online marketplace with its own stock of vehicles, which has been concentrating on commercial car wholesalers. The group also runs the internet platform “Wir kaufen ein Auto” [“We’re buying a car”] for private vehicle sales. SoftBank, the highly active Japanese investor, has paid €460 million for a 20 percent share in AUTO1.com. This values the company at €2.3 billion, making the Berlin start-up a genuine unicorn.

About the author
Dr. Jan Dannenberg
Dr. Jan Dannenberg (1962) has been a consultant for the automotive industry since 1990 and became a founding partner of Berylls Strategy Advisors in May 2011. Until spring 2011, he worked with Mercer Management Consulting and Oliver Wyman in Munich, Germany, on international projects – for five years as Associate Partner, and another three years as Partner. He is a recognized specialist in innovation and brand management in the automotive industry, and primarily advises suppliers and investors on strategy, M&A and performance improvement. In addition he is Managing Director at Berylls Equity Partners, an investment company that specializes on mobility enterprises.
Bachelor of Arts in economics at Stanford University, USA; business administration and doctorate degree at the University of Bamberg, Germany.

Digitalisierung

Digitalization

Company culture as a success factor in digital transformation

München, Mai 2017
H

ardly a day goes by when we are not confronted with the concept of “digital transformation” and the car industry is no exception. Structural change is taking place with ever-increasing speed. Manufacturers and suppliers are now faced with changes such as vehicle networking, highly automated or even autonomous vehicles, new mobility products, Big Data, and alternative drive systems. As a result, they are having to reorganize the business model they have had in place for decades.

Digitalization has the potential to shake up value chains and distribution, with a considerable impact. However, companies can improve their existing positioning, and develop new business models, by introducing product and process innovations:

  1. Optimizing current business models, for example through digitalization of products and services in the established portfolio. This can be done by networking of the supply chain beyond company boundaries or through the use of artificial intelligence to improve flexibility and the capability to react to changing markets.
  2. Expansion of the business model, for example through further development of the product and service portfolio in the context of autonomous driving or electrification of the powertrain.
  3. Development of a new business model, for example through the creation of novel transport solutions and the development of direct (end) user access.

 

The multifaceted drivers of digitalization in industrial manufacturing, including the Internet of Things, Industry 4.0, mobile devices and Big Data, affect companies in the supplier industry with varying degrees of relevance and urgency. This means that an in-depth discussion about the importance of digital transformation becomes necessary in every company, in order to make use of opportunities and identify risks as early as possible and be able to take the relevant countermeasures.

In this context, organizations are increasingly asking themselves to what degree the existing company culture allows for managing high-complexity digitalization. Small and medium-sized suppliers are on the verge of missing the boat here. Company culture is often still organized along traditional lines and can work against the need for agility, flat hierarchies and self-managed teams in digital transformation projects. Even “trial and error” methods and short development cycles with the close involvement of external partners are often difficult to carry out within a long-established culture.

Although the relevance and urgency of digitalization is accepted, hardly any companies have a real masterplan for carrying it out. It is not immediately apparent what the future direction of the business should be and to what extent digitalization is going to change the company. The question that often remains is whether the company can continue to exist as a component or system supplier or whether an entirely new business model must be developed. For many companies it is simply not possible to identify and use the opportunities that are arising, for example from the application of Big Data. For this reason many medium-sized companies focus primarily on process and cost optimization instead. The fact that digitalization can offer direct customer access is often overlooked.

As a result, there is a lack of understanding about the opportunities created by new products, services or digital business models, and the existing potential for new sources of revenue is more or less ignored. Many suppliers’ financial resources are also insufficient to meet the cost of digital transformation and there is a shortage of people with the right digital skills.

Despite these factors, existing company culture is often cited as the most frequent reason for a non-existent masterplan and a lack of comprehensive discussion about digitalization.

 

Berylls’ Company Culture 4.0 survey shows company culture to be a significant success factor and many suppliers are indeed working intensively on that: management teams discuss and reflect on their perceptions of culture, describe values, norms and basic beliefs about leadership and co-operation, and in many cases train their staff in how to deal with these. So why is commitment not leading to a comprehensive discussion about digitalization?

 

Berylls believes the following factors are behind the lack of progress:  

  • The continuing success of the existing business model and concentration on established, direct competition reduces readiness to make changes within the company.
  • Understanding of digitalization varies widely in existing organizations and no common definition of digitalization has been worked out.
  • Discussion about company culture concentrates too much on traditional cultural values that have been effective so far: quality, reliability, thoroughness and thrift, combined with a down-to-earth approach. It is not in the participants’ DNA to storm ahead without careful planning or to regard investments as an experiment.
  • To a large extent, business owners and senior leaders live out these traditional values. In discussions about digitalization they often act based on their experience, do not argue enough about the best objective solution and shy away from investments outside their traditional areas of opportunity.
  • Within a company there is still relatively little knowledge about digital skills and approaches. This means that no shared vision can be developed regarding the cultural strengths and weaknesses needed for digitalization. Consistent promotion of strengths and limitation of weaknesses becomes more difficult.

 

To achieve success, the necessary culture patterns of digital transformation need to be identified to define the right measures to be taken for organizational development. Is the existing company culture a help or a hindrance when it comes to the complex demands of digitalization? The company cultures of many organizations show a lack courage to take new pathways, are closed to innovative ideas, favor a culture of debate rather than a pursuit of harmony, and lack the strength to implement change in the face of resistance. Courage as a quality is often dismissed as recklessness and determination as obstinacy. But both of these are attributes without which a fundamental change cannot be tackled.

This is why Berylls Strategy Advisors has established a set of recommendations for adapting company culture to meet the needs of digitalization – for medium-sized companies in particular – without losing the elements that make them successful right now. Our recommendations are continually being redeveloped, with the help of company culture experts and collaboration partners:

  • Berylls recommends a pragmatic pathway and emphasizes the importance of systemic and systematic management. It is leaders who determine culture development in a company. However, it is by no means a question of reinventing the leadership. Instead, it should be adapted to meet the needs of organizational development. For example, agility is not only a method, but an attitude. The skill lies in implementing existing company approaches in an appropriate and meaningful way.
  • It is also important to consider the cultural perspective at the point where a company-wide digital strategy is being worked out. As well as strategic and structural initiatives, digital transformation above all requires cultural initiatives that can mobilize the entire workforce. The clear creation and allocation of responsibilities at top management level are helpful for the successful implementation of company-wide and centrally controlled measures for digital transformation.
  • Most importantly, the development of a comprehensive masterplan for digital transformation needs to be right at the top of the decision-makers’ agenda. Both the potential and risks of digitalization must be looked at as a whole in order to reach the right conclusions for the company concerned. The basis for this is a clear definition of what digitalization actually means. The strength and effectiveness of applying knowledge of digitalization to the business model is enormous, but the path to get there is not easy, as the Berylls Company Culture 4.0 survey shows. If knowledge gaps are to be reliably closed, as for example with Big Data expertise, focused involvement is needed from external experts.
  • However, as the recommended ways of working may not be compatible with the existing culture, work to develop the organization’s digital mindset is necessary. One pillar for this is the creation of appropriate training opportunities. When it comes to important personnel decisions such as recruitment and promotion, attention should be paid to those skills needed urgently by the company for digital transformation. Sometimes breaks from the norm must be accepted or even consciously implemented. Digital transformation demands a cultural rethink from established companies if they want to secure their success. Such a rethink starts at organization’s very heart.
Authors
Peter Eltze

Partner

Anna Wacker

Associate

About the author

Peter Eltze (1964) joined Berylls Strategy Advisors as a Partner in November 2015. He began his career in the medical technology division of an integrated technology corporation, and became a project manager at Malik Management Zentrum St. Gallen in 1996 before being appointed Partner in 2001. From 2003, in his role as member of the executive board, he was in charge of Management Education & Development. Since the end of the 1990s, Peter Eltze has advised companies in the automotive and mechanical engineering industries. At Berylls, his consulting activities focus on integrated organizational development (strategy, structure, culture), transformation management, and executive development.

Education in wholesale and international trade; administrative sciences at the University of Constance, Germany.